"Musa Dagh" at Gorki Theater in Berlin (in German)

Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Schweiz
10 mar 2015

am Gorki-Theater Berlin: Armenien, ermordet

Bernd Noack

Erinnerung an das Ungeheuerliche, Erinnerung aber auch daran, dass es
immer noch verschwiegen, geleugnet wird: Vor hundert Jahren begann in
der Türkei die systematische Verfolgung und Ermordung der armenischen
Bevölkerung. Bis zu 1,5 Millionen Menschen fielen den
, die von der damaligen Regierung als
für angeblichen Verrat gerechtfertigt wurden, zum Opfer. Frauen,
Kinder und Männer wurden in ihren Heimatdörfern getötet oder auf
Gewaltmärsche und in Konzentrationslager geschickt, wo sie regelrecht
verendeten. Bis heute weigert sich die offizielle Türkei, diese
penibel geplanten Aktionen als das zu bezeichnen, was sie tatsächlich
waren: Genozid – der erste in einem Jahrhundert, das das
Ungeheuerliche noch zu steigern wusste.

Im Berliner Maxim-Gorki-Theater, dessen Intendantin Shermin Langhoff
aus der Türkei stammt (), nimmt man sich nun vierzig Tage lang
dieses Themas an. heisst die Veranstaltungsreihe, die bis Ende April mit
Theater, Filmen und Kunstaktionen die Ereignisse der Jahre 1915/16 ins
Gedächtnis rufen und zum Weiterdenken anstacheln will. Der 24. April
1915, an dem in Istanbul armenische Intellektuelle verhaftet (und
später umgebracht) wurden, gilt heute als symbolischer Beginn für die
dann folgende Ausrottung eines ganzen Volkes. Es geht in Berlin aber
auch um die Fragen, wie viel Schuld andere Länder seinerzeit (vor
allem Deutschland) an dem Ablauf des Mordens hatten
und wie hartnäckig sich das Schweigen bis heute fortsetzt. In der
Türkei hat mit Repressalien zu rechnen, wer die längst nachgewiesene
Wahrheit ausspricht; aber auch die bundesdeutsche Regierung konnte
sich bisher nicht dazu durchringen, die grausamen Ereignisse offiziell
als anzuerkennen ().

Dies ist ein Aspekt von , einem
Stück des Dokumentartheatermachers Hans-Werner Kroesinger. Basierend
auf Franz Werfels Roman, in dem der verzweifelte, doch erfolgreiche
Kampf einer kleinen armenischen Gruppe gegen die staatlichen
türkischen Mörder eindrucksvoll geschildert wird, erzählen Kroesinger
und sein Ensemble von den Ereignissen wie Augenzeugen: Stakkatoartig
wird aus alten Akten, aus aktuellen Protokollen und Anfragen im
Deutschen Bundestag zitiert, Namen und Zahlen fallen, und immer wieder
werden kleine Diapositive gegen das Licht gehalten und verschwinden
wie heikle Beweisstücke – man ahnt nur, welche Greuel auf ihnen zu
sehen sein müssen.

Dies ist die Stärke des dichten, beeindruckenden Abends: Es geht nicht
um die Illustration des Unsagbaren, vielmehr um die Bewusstmachung von
Verdrängtem. Kroesinger lässt Tatsachen für sich sprechen, doch immer
wieder geraten diese Berichte ins Stocken: Auf einmal sind da die
Figuren aus Werfels Buch und erzählen wie aus der vergangenen Zeit
Herübergerettete mit verhaltenen und gleichwohl schmerzenden Emotionen
von den Tagen, in denen die armenischen Christen ums Überleben
kämpften, in letzter Sekunde der Vernichtung durch die Muslime
entgingen.

Und während im Bühnenhintergrund der Rumpf eines Schiffes
zusammengezimmert wird, das nicht von ungefähr an Noahs Arche
erinnert, die auf dem Ararat, dem heiligen Berg der Armenier, landete,
singt eine Schauspielerin ein orientalisches Lied, in dem die Hoffnung
anklingt, dass auch die Unglückstage eines Volkes vorbeiziehen werden.
Kroesinger ist hier ein aufrüttelndes Stück Erinnerungsarbeit
gelungen, an dessen Ende eine Frage steht, die nur als Auftrag zu
verstehen ist, das Thema nicht ruhen zu lassen: Viel – auch über die Veranstaltungen des
Gorki-Theaters hinaus. Shermin Langhoff hat einen Anfang gemacht, und
dass bei der Premiere eine ganze Reihe türkischstämmiger
Bundestagsabgeordneter und Intellektueller im Parkett sass, gibt nicht
nur ihr Anlass zur Hoffnung:

From: A. Papazian

http://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/buehne/armenien-ermordet-1.18499203

Speech of Hon. David N. Cicilline of RI in the House of Reps.

US Official News
March 14, 2015 Saturday

Washington: SPEECH OF HON. DAVID N. CICILLINE OF RHODE ISLAND IN THE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2015

Washington

The Library of Congress, The Government of USA has issued the following Speech:

Mr. CICILLINE. Mr. Speaker, this week we commemorate the 27th
Anniversary of the horrific Sumgait Pogroms. On February 27, 1988
organized mobs of Azerbaijanis aimed at killing and driving Armenian
Christians living in Sumgait from their homes. Police allowed the
pogroms to go on for 3 days, during which Armenians were burned alive
and thrown from windows.

The Sumgait massacre is a black mark on history and sadly, this event
sparked further violence as Armenians would be targeted less than 9
months later in Kirovbad and again in Baku in 1990.

The Azerbaijani Government has shamefully continued to undermine
prospects for a lasting peace in the Southern Caucuses, recently they
were reported violating the ceasefire and killing several Armenian
soldiers on the border.

>From the earliest days of its formation, the people of Nagorno
Karabakh have fought and died for their independence and held open and
transparent elections, a tradition of democracy that the United States
should honor and respect.

As we reflect on these horrific outbreaks of ethnic violence, I join
with Armenians in Rhode Island, and across the world in remembering
these victims and renewing our commitment to justice, independence and
finding lasting peace.

From: A. Papazian

Le journal hollandais De Telegraaf écrit que la Turquie est visée pa

EUROVISION 2015
Le journal hollandais De Telegraaf écrit que la Turquie est visée par
la chanson > du groupe Genealogy qui représentera
l’Arménie à l’Eurovision 2015. De Telegraaf informe ses lecteurs que
Genealogy est composé d’Arméniens arrière-petits-enfants de survivants
du génocide des Arméniens de 1915 ayant perdu leur terre et disséminés
à travers le monde. Dans la vidéo de >.

Krikor Amirzayan

dimanche 15 mars 2015,
Krikor Amirzayan (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

http://www.armenews.com/article.php3?id_article=109107

Eurobonds Issue: Armenia Plans Another Issuance Amid Concerns Of Gro

EUROBONDS ISSUE: ARMENIA PLANS ANOTHER ISSUANCE AMID CONCERNS OF GROWING FOREIGN DEBT

ECONOMY | 13.03.15 | 15:35

By SARA KHOJOYAN
ArmeniaNow reporter

While experts in Armenia warn that by means of issuing new currency
bonds the government will accumulate more foreign debt, which already
exceeds a third of the gross domestic product, companies in Europe
that are licensed by the Armenian government have started negotiations
directed toward replacing bonds and attracting more buyers.

On Thursday Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank J.P. Morgan Securities said
that Armenian bonds will start to be sold from next week on – March
16-18, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed source.

The Ministry of Finance does not yet comment on this news.

The government approved the agreements and documents related to the
process of bond issuance on March 10 at the meeting of the executive
when Minister of Finance Gagik Khachatryan said that their issuance
is one of the sources of financing the deficit of the state budget.

“The function of managing the state debt is not limited to the
replacement of bonds. The management of the liabilities is no less
important,” the minister said.

It is noteworthy that Armenia’s state, as well as foreign debt
significantly decreased last year. Specifically, the state debt
decreased by more than $140 million, forming $4.44 billion by the
end of 2014. The foreign debt decreased by more than $110 million –
forming $3.78 billion by the end of last year.

This year, however, the foreign debt will increase, because Armenia
wants to involve $700 million in the form of Eurobonds. Bonds of
similar volume were first issued in September of 2013 – for seven
years and six percent profitability.

According to international financial consulting centers, bonds to be
issued this time will have profitability of more than seven percent,
because the Armenian economy will be affected by hardships in the
Russian economy, as well as in January the country’s rating was
decreased at once by two international financial rating structures –
Moody’s and Fitch.

From: A. Papazian

http://armenianow.com/economy/61429/armenia_eurobonds_economy_issue

Armenian FM Blames Azerbaijan For Escalation Of Regional Tensions

ARMENIAN FM BLAMES AZERBAIJAN FOR ESCALATION OF REGIONAL TENSIONS

Interfax, Russia
March 12 2015

YEREVAN. March 12

Azerbaijan has been straining tensions in the South Caucasian region
and rejects confidence-building proposals from mediators, Armenian
Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian said.

“This is a obvious fact that Azerbaijan is provoking tensions in our
region. Azerbaijan has increased its military budget 30 times from
$163 million to $5 billion. It is unlikely to find any other state
on the international arena that would increase its military budget
30 times,” the Armenian Foreign Ministry’s press service quoted
Nalbandian as saying in an interview with Slovenia’s Delo newspaper.

“Azerbaijan also threatens to start new hostilities, a new war,”
he said.

“It is a common knowledge that a war is not a path to a solution and
that one should get back to the negotiating table after such wars. And
today we have a chance to continue the negotiations with the mediation
of the Minsk Group co-chairmen. The mediators made five statements
at the level of presidents on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Armenia is ready to move to a settlement on this base,”
Nalbandian said.

“The whole reasonability for the escalation of the situation lies on
Azerbaijan because it is Azerbaijan that rejects the co-chairmen’s
proposals, including the ones aimed at building confidence,” he said.

Nalbandian visited Slovenia on March 9-10.

From: A. Papazian

Armenian External Public Debt Eases In 2014, But Leaves Financial Ri

ARMENIAN EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT EASES IN 2014, BUT LEAVES FINANCIAL RISKS VERY HIGH

IHS Global Insight
March 12, 2015

by Venla Sipila

Armenia’s already weak current account position is starting to look
increasingly precarious; even as external public borrowing fell, debt
ratios signal substantial financial risks, especially as all-important
remittance inflows are severely suppressed as a result of the Russian
downturn.

Public external debt edges down

According to the latest figures published by the Armenian National
Statistical Service, the country’s gross external public debt ended
last year at USD3.8 billion, having decreased by 2.9% during the year.

This follows growth of 4.3% over 2013, and presents the first annual
fall in total debt since 2005. According to additional official
data quoted by ARKA, some 69% (USD2.6 billion) of external public
debt consisted of loans from multilateral creditors, such as the
World Bank. Meanwhile, bilateral loans amounted to USD504 million,
in a decrease of 8.1% from the beginning of the year. The Japanese
International Corporation Agency (JICA) was the leading bilateral
creditor. Armenia’s Eurobond issue accounted for USD659 million of
external debt. Finally, total public debt at the end of last year was
worth USD4.4 billion, 3.5% lower than a year earlier, and equivalent
to around 40% of GDP. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Armenia reports
that its gross international reserves excluding gold, ended the year
at USD1.5 billion, having dwindled 34% during 2014, and slid 11%
over the fourth quarter alone.

Remittance inflows collapsing

Meanwhile, figures on workers’ remittances from CBA show that inflows
during 2014 dwindled by 26%, then collapsed by a further 56% in
January alone. Remittances from Russia, in particular, fell by 37%
in 2014 and by 64% in January 2015.

In further indication of the drastic impact of the Russian struggles
on Armenia, Russian inflows in 2013 and 2014 on the average accounted
for 73-74% of total remittance inflows, but only 53% of the inflows
in January. To some extent, FDI data are likely to show similar
developments.

Outlook and implications

Even as Armenian external public debt fell during last year, and
notwithstanding the recent narrowing of the trade deficit (seeArmenia:
4 February 2015:Q4 contraction in imports restricts Armenian 2014
trade deficit), the country’s external financial position is very
precarious. Indeed, in light of the latest remittance figures, and
given that the outlook for exports and remittances remains extremely
weak, with the Russian economy likely to contract this year, the risk
has increased that the overall current account may deteriorate again
this year. Dram depreciation, largely affected by contagion from
the Russian rouble, should aid in suppressing the trade and current
account deficits, by making imports more expensive and also giving
some temporary supports to exports. However, this is not likely to
outweigh the negative impacts, whereas the support on the current
account of the lower oil prices will be counterweighed by the weaker
dram exchange rate and decreased world market prices of Armenian mining
exports. It also remains possible that the dram exchange rate may need
to depreciate still further, in order to keep the current-account gap
manageable. In any case, this impact would mainly work through imports;
given poor competitiveness and weak productivity, we do not expect that
even a still considerably weaker dram would have any markedly positive
impact on export demand, even if, in theory, this could be expected.

The vulnerability of Armenia’s external financial position is shown
in the latest external public debt figures also by them implying that
around 85% of outstanding borrowing is nominated in foreign currency.

Moreover, deprecation of the dram has a negative impact on the banking
sector in the still very dollarised economy. In addition, although
not included in our baseline scenario at the moment, in light of the
latest figures of Armenian external reserves, a risk also exists that
import cover might even fall below or at least approach the critical
level of three months generally seen as just adequate.

We cut the outlook on our sovereign rating on Armenia to Negative
in the last review, and a downgrade in the current forecast round
certainly remains a possibility (seeArmenia: 27 January 2015:IHS
adjusts Armenian sovereign outlook to Negative as foreign currency
inflows are increasingly threatened). In particular, deterioration in
foreign currency inflows risks putting critical pressure on Armenian
liquidity, potentially relatively quickly. With less private investment
inflows, also the risk of increased need for borrowing remains, and
we see that this also could have a negative impact on solvency as
well. Indeed, we already project that the ratio of total external
debt to foreign currency inflows is likely to remain around 150%,
and in light of the latest developments and data, downward risks to
this forecasts have increased.

The sovereign has recently expressed hopes of a new international bond
issue. Although the currently low international interest rate levels
should generally aid in riskier issuers in their debt offers, we do not
see Armenia’s chances of a successful Eurobond float at the moment as
very high. Then again, Armenia has a very good relationship with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thus, it remains likely that, if
needed, the international lender would probably provide for additional
assistance for the country, before a full-blown balance of payments
crisis would materialise (seeArmenia: 12 January 2015:As expected,
IMF approves further support for vulnerable Armenian economy).

From: A. Papazian

Oil Prospecting Seen As Latest Risk To Armenian Lake

OIL PROSPECTING SEEN AS LATEST RISK TO ARMENIAN LAKE

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
IWPR Caucasus Reporting #770
March 13 2015

Right now, only exploratory work is planned, but environmentalists
fear for the worst if anything is found.

by Arpi Harutyunyan

Environmentalists in Armenia are alarmed by the government’s decision
to allow oil prospecting in an area that includes Lake Sevan,the
region’s largest freshwater resource.

The ministry for energy and natural resources has granted exploration
company Blackstairs Energy Armenia permission to begin an11 million
US dollar search for oil and gas deposits in 2015-16.

Blackstairs Energy Armenia, a locally-registered firm,was set up in
2008 as a joint venture between Canadian company Vangold, Ireland’s
Blackstairs Energy and the Armenian government.

According to Vangold, the company has obtained “very encouraging” data
that provide “compelling evidence for the existence of significant
accumulations of hydrocarbons within the licence area”. That area,
known as the Central Depression, is located in central and southern
Armenia and includes part of Lake Sevan.

Near the lakeside, prospecting work is planned at the villages of
Hayravank, Tsaghkashen and Noradus.

The lake is protected by a special law passed in 2001 which forbids
any activity liable to damage its ecosystem. Environmentalists have
frequently raised the alarm about projects that seem to contravene
at least the spirit of the law, from fish farming to gold mining and
over-use of Sevan’s waters.

“As long as it’s just exploration, we can’t say the law is being
broken,” Silva Adamyan, coordinator of the Public Environmental
Alliance, told IWPR. “But if oil reserves are found, the next step
has to be production. Drilling operations on Lake Sevan’s territory
is prohibited by law, as it would have devastating consequences for
the lake.”

Adamyan insisted that Armenia’s green activists would be happy if
oil reserves were discovered, as long as it was not at the expense
of Lake Sevan.

Unlike its oil-rich neighbour Azerbaijan, Armenia has few known
natural fuel sources and has to import natural gas from Russia and
to a lesser extent Iran.

While the neighbouring Azerbaijan has rich deposits of oil,
environmentalists doubt that Armenia possesses untapped reserves.

Ruben Movsisyan, the director of Yerevan State University’s Centre
for Sustainable Development, is pretty sure that the prospectors will
not find anything commercially significant.

“In the Soviet era, wells were drilled atArmavir and a little gas
was found. And a very small oil deposit was found in the village of
Voghjaberd on the road to Garni. Foreign organisations then drilled
a well in Garni to a depth of about 3,200 metres, but nothing was
found,” he told IWPR.

However, Blackstairs Energy Armenia says data collected in the Soviet
period is unreliable.

“The research conducted from 1947 to 1990 was… done using
rudimentary geological and geophysical technology,” the company said
in a statement.

The company insists that its activities are designed to minimise any
environmental impact.

Kristine Vardanyan, ofBlackstairsEnergy Armenia, said that since only
exploratory work was to be conducted at this stage, using safe methods,
there was no cause for concern.

Tehmina Arzumanyan, spokesperson for the Ministry of Nature Protection
,stressed that permission had been granted only tolocate potential
oilfields, not to drill in them.

“If, as a result of exploration, it turns out that there is gas or
oil underground in Armenia, the company must seek an additional
expert study or apply for a license to drill wells in the area,”
Arzumanyan told IWPR.

But Karine Danielyan, chair of the Association for Sustainable Human
Development, argued that the application which Blackstairs Energy
Armenia submitted to carry out prospecting was incomplete.

“This document does not contain any assessment of the impact on the
environment; it is merely descriptive.Instead of proposing safety
solutions, it only expresses good intentions,” Danielyan said.

Movsisyan pointed out that as a country with no oil industry, Armenia
had never developed legislation to govern the pollution and other
risks that extraction would entail.

Environmentalists argue that decisionsof such momentous importance
need to be discussed more broadly. Liana Asoyan, coordinator of the
Aarhus Centre in Gavar, says public hearings have been held in all the
regions where exploration is planned, but civil society organisations
were not invited.

“We were not informed that these hearings were going on,”
she told IWPR. “So the Aarhus Centre in Yerevan and Gavar
organised a meetingitself, and invited company representatives and
environmentalists.We made our position clear – that Lake Sevanshould be
left alone,and that they should not even plan any drilling work there.”

Asoyan says it is unclear what will happen if oil is found.

“We’ve been assured that there won’t be any drilling in Lake Sevan.

But if they do find oil, what would the company be interested in
other than extracting the reserves?” she said.

Arpi Harutyunyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.

From: A. Papazian

https://iwpr.net/global-voices/oil-prospecting-seen-latest-risks-armenian

Exhibition Dedicated To Armenian Genocide And Assyrian Massacres Ope

EXHIBITION DEDICATED TO ARMENIAN GENOCIDE AND ASSYRIAN MASSACRES OPENS IN ALMELO

17:47, 13 March, 2015

YEREVAN, 13 MARCH, ARMENPRESS. An exhibition dedicated to the Armenian
Genocide and the Assyrian massacres opened at the public library in
the Dutch city of Almelo on March 12. The event was organized by the
1915 Committee created by the Armenian and Assyrian communities of
Almelo. As the Department of Press, Information and Public Relations
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia reports
to “Armenpress”, the event began with opening remarks by leader of
the Christian Union Party of the Netherlands Ari Slob, Armenia’s
Ambassador to the Netherlands Dzyunik Aghajanyan and member of the
Armenian National Committee Minas Arsenyan.

The exhibition showcases eight components of the genocide perpetrated
in the early 20th century, the geography of the Armenian Genocide,
articles on the Armenian massacres and the Genocide on the front
pages of foreign newspapers, as well as data regarding the Assyrian
massacres.

The exhibition will run until March 21st.

From: A. Papazian

http://armenpress.am/eng/news/797607/exhibition-dedicated-to-armenian-genocide-and-assyrian-massacres-opens-in-almelo.html

Minsk Ready To Host Nagorno-Karabakh Conference – Foreign Ministry

MINSK READY TO HOST NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFERENCE – FOREIGN MINISTRY

ITAR-TASS, Russia
March 12, 2015 Thursday 08:24 PM GMT+4

MINSK March 12.

Minsk is ready to host a conference on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makey said on Thursday during a
meeting with the Minsk Group Co-Chairs of the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe, Ambassadors Pierre Andrieu of France,
Igor Popov of Russia, James Warlick of the U.S. and personal envoy
of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk

“I would like to confirm our readiness to host peace talks
on Nagorno-Karabakh at the time specified by the relevant OSCE
resolutions,” he said, noting that, “If necessary, Minsk could also
provide the venue for the final stage of negotiations to work out a
comprehensive peace agreement”.

Belarus resolutely supports OSCE efforts aimed at strengthening
regional security and stability, finding peaceful solutions to resolve
the existing and long-running conflicts, including in Nagorno-Karabakh,
the Minister said. Makey added that “Minsk was ready to make its
contribution to the issue, the way it did in the context of the
Ukrainian crisis”. “The Belarusian side shares the vision of the
Minsk Group co-chairs on the ways of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict”, the Belarusian top diplomat said. -0-opt

From: A. Papazian

The Danger Of Russia Plotting More Ethnic Separatism In Azerbaijan

THE DANGER OF RUSSIA PLOTTING MORE ETHNIC SEPARATISM IN AZERBAIJAN

The Hill, DC
March 13 2015

By Joshua Noonan

Russia has a penchant for frozen conflicts.

Its policy of backing separatist movements that lead to the creation of
de-facto states inside its neighbors’ borders helps it control those
neighbors. Today, there are several Moscow-backed frozen conflicts
in the region — in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan.

And now, some pundits are worrying about a second conflict in
Azerbaijan as well.

ADVERTISEMENT Russia recently poked a stick in the eye of those who
are upset about these frozen conflicts –including the victimized
countries and the West — by beginning military exercises in three
areas it has occupied: Crimea, which it took from Ukraine, and
the South Ossetia and Abkhazia enclaves it took from Georgia. The
exercises also involve troops at Russia’s base in Armenia and the
Black Sea naval fleet in Sevastopol.

Frozen conflicts start out “hot” — that is, there is a war or conflict
between the separatists and the armed forces of the countries they
want to secede from.

By sending arms and troops to the separatists, Moscow prevents
neighbors with secession movements from subduing the rebels.

The conflict settles into a cold peace that threatens to turn hot
again. This situation prevents the countries with the secession
movements from developing normally.

This instability not only limits international investment in the
victimized country, but also discourages it from forging political
or military relationships in dissonance with Russia.

The threat that continually hangs over the victimized nation is that if
the Kremlin becomes displeased with its policies, the frozen conflict
will become hot again.

The first frozen conflict stemmed from a war in the late 1980s and
early 1990s between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It involved Armenia’s
claim, as the Soviet Union was breaking up, that the Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave in southwestern Azerbaijan should belong to Armenia, since
most of its inhabitants were ethnic Armenians.

This was despite the fact that the demographic situation favoring
ethnic Azerbaijanis in the late 19th century was gradually changed by
Moscow. The All-Russian Imperial Census from 1897 clearly identified
an Azerbaijani majority in uyezds (administrative units of the Russian
Empire) that covered the territory of today’s Karabakh region.

Russia backed Armenia in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which
ended in 1994 with a separatist regime occupying the enclave.

The Moldova frozen conflict grew out of a war from 1990 to 1992
between Russian-backed separatists in the Transnistria region and
Moldovan forces trying to suppress the rebellion.

A truce was declared in 1992. Transnistria remains a breeding-ground
for criminal and pro-Russian elements, as has also been seen in Crimea
following its annexation.

The Georgia frozen conflict stemmed from a war in 2008 that separatists
in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia enclaves and their Russian allies
fought against the Georgian military. Russia was only too pleased
to help the separatists after Georgia declared its intention to join
the EU and NATO.

The frozen conflict in Ukraine involves Russia’s seizure of the
Crimean peninsula in the spring of 2014. The invasion occurred after
demonstrators in Kiev ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych
for repudiating a treaty that would have brought Ukraine closer to
the EU.

A separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine that also erupted in the
spring of 2014 is still in the “hot” phase, but Russia’s ultimate aim
appears to be to turn it into a frozen conflict as well, geopolitical
experts say.

The danger of a second Russian-backed frozen conflict in Azerbaijan
involves the Talysh minority in the country’s southeast. Russia
and its allies have repeatedly tried to manipulate the Talysh for
political gain.

Talysh nationalists fought a brief, unsuccessful conflict with
Azerbaijani forces in 1993.

There have been hints that Russia may be thinking about fomenting
another rebellion in the enclave that leads to a destabilizing
separatism in Azerbaijan, geopolitical pundits say.

A frozen conflict might help Moscow attain a level of control over
Azerbaijan that it has been unable to attain so far.

Oil and gas have made Azerbaijan an economic power in the region. That
means Moscow can’t use economic intimidation to bend Baku to its will,
as it has other countries in the region. Its favorite economic weapon
— threatening to cut off gas — won’t work with such a petroleum-rich
country.

Russia started buying billions of cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas in
2010 to try to decrease the reserves that Azerbaijan could allocate
to the Southern Gas Corridor. That network of pipelines will begin
supplying the EU in 2019 via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. The Russian
strategy failed, however, as Azerbaijan has since made additional
discoveries of offshore natural gas.

Russia does not benefit from the fact that Azerbaijan has followed a
balanced foreign policy that includes forging closer ties with the
West. Baku’s decision to work with Georgia, Turkey, and the United
States to build oil and gas pipelines to sell to Europe has infringed
upon Russia’s self-declared privileged geopolitical area of interest.

Much of this is tied to these energy pipelines, which have weakened
the Kremlin’s ability to use oil and gas as a weapon.

Russia would love a less independent Azerbaijan, so it is perhaps
not surprising that it has shown renewed interest in the Talysh.

One sign of its official interest is that the Russian Institute for
Strategic Studies, which is closely aligned with the Kremlin, supports
the argument that there was once an independent Talysh khanate.

Much of this activity is also stoked through Russia’s ally, Armenia,
by way of the Talysh Studies Program at Yerevan State University. The
program holds conferences on Talysh issues, while promoting the idea
of an independent Talysh state.

Russia’s interest in promoting Talysh separatism was also demonstrated
in the Russian newspaper IAREX’s interview with Talysh leader
Fakhraddin Aboszoda just last month.

Aboszoda made the same argument about an independent Talysh khanate
that the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies has supported, and
contended that it justifies creating a modern Talysh state. Such an
interview in a Kremlin mouthpiece might have been a trial balloon,
but at worst it was a policy signal from Moscow that it embraces the
separatist narrative.

What would be Moscow’s goals in fomenting more ethnic separatism
in Azerbaijan?

Its first objective would be to prevent the country from pursuing an
independent foreign policy that includes closer ties with the West,
and instead adopt policy that reflects Moscow’s interests.

Azerbaijan, the region and the world need to sound the alarm on any
preparations that Russia makes to grow separatism in the country. The
earlier such designs come to the world’s attention, the better.

Efforts to undermine Azerbaijan’s stability would harm the region
and the world.

Noonan is an independent analyst and frequent commentator on
post-Soviet issues. He is a graduate of the Johns Hopkins University’s
School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C.

From: A. Papazian

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/235547-the-danger-of-russia-plotting-more-ethnic-separatism-in