PUTIN IS BASKING IN AN ‘ASTONISHING LEADERSHIP VACUUM’
TIME
Jan 6 2014
Ahead of Sochi, Putin has thrown his weight around – but Russia is
still crumbling under the strain of his tyranny
By Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Garry Kasparov Jan. 06, 20146
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Since Vladimir Putin’s official return to power in 2012, the Russian
President seems to have set his mind on teaching the rest of the world
a few simple lessons. First, that he shall not be underestimated on
the international stage; second, that Moscow will keep reasserting
control over what it considers to be its legitimate sphere of influence
for Russia; and finally, that he shall do whatever he pleases at
home. To convey his message, Putin has supported a murderous dictator,
lectured the U.S. about multilateralism, blackmailed his neighbors
into accepting Moscow’s ironfisted embrace, inflamed anti-American
and anti-gay sentiments, and brutally cracked down on dissidents.
(MORE: Putin Eases Protest Ban Ahead of Sochi Olympics)
>From Syria and the Snowden saga to blatant human-rights violations
and, most recently, pressuring Ukraine’s leadership into a sudden
change of heart on its association with the E.U., Putin has managed to
bedevil the West all year long. His latest clemency decision for some
prominent critics of the regime, only two months before the Olympics
in Sochi, lacks credibility; it is an arbitrary reflection of being
at an autocrat’s mercy, not an act of mercy under the rule of law.
When it comes to the honorable title of Bully of the Year, the Russian
President surely triumphed in 2013. But all too often bullies fail
with their homework. Russia’s economy is crumbling. Moscow revised
downward its economic outlook in December, the fourth time it did
so last year. Growth, investment and industrial output are all below
previously set targets, while inflation has risen to above 6%. This
is not a short-term disturbance only, but the sign of the chronic
shortfalls of a centralized and corrupt state. Russia seems to have
completely misread the scale and pace of the energy revolution, and
its overdependence on natural resources has now become an imminent
threat to its economy.
(MORE: Putin Takes to the Ski Slopes in Sochi)
Crony capitalism and the heavy hand of the state has led to steady
brain drain among the educated Russians needed for any real economy
to thrive. Sclerosis persists in the public sphere as well, with
everything from the health care system to the vaunted Russian army
falling to pieces under the weight of graft and neglect. The cash
reserves, now dwindling after being built by years of record energy
prices, go to internal security and propaganda, hardly the budget
priorities of a confident leadership.
And what is really happening to Russia’s standing in the world? It
might be impossible to ignore Putin, but his behavior has hardly
earned him any new friends – quite the contrary. A somewhat overlooked
aspect of the contest over Ukraine is the role Berlin has played in
it. Germany is the country that has often emphasized the importance
of building bridges to Russia, and has come up with policies like
“change through rapprochement.” But by now, Putin’s zero-sum game
mentality and hard power push have provoked even the otherwise
not-so-confrontational German Chancellor to take action. Germany has
embraced the cause of Ukraine’s association with the E.U., it has
offered to provide medical treatment for the imprisoned politician
Yulia Tymoshenko, and its Foreign Minister traveled to Kiev to meet
with demonstrators. While scoring a probably Pyrrhic victory, Putin
has alienated an important partner. Ironically, he also achieved what
no pleas from the U.S. President or fellow European leaders could do:
Germany finally assumed leadership on a difficult foreign policy issue.
(MORE: Second Deadly Blast Hits Southern Russian City)
Moreover, Putin also made the E.U. look much better than it otherwise
does these days. On first sight, the E.U. Association Agreement is
a remarkably boring document, whose benefits only become evident in
the long term. Yet its adoption has become synonymous with signing up
for democracy, the rule of law and economic progress. We have gotten
all too used to popular protest against the E.U.’s undemocratic power
grabs, to politicians likening Brussels to the Moscow of the Soviet
era and to discussions about different countries’ potential exits
from the grand European project. Ukrainians have now reminded us of
the transformative influence that the always too slow and never too
effective E.U. can still have on young democracies.
Whether they are real successes or not for Putin, recent events should
serve as a wake-up call for leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. The
U.S. should return to long-term and extensive foreign policy planning.
The primary reason for Putin’s self-aggrandizing behavior is
the astonishing leadership vacuum in the world. Washington’s
recent preference to let other nations, including Russia, lead on
international affairs has eroded the U.S.’s authority. However, the
U.S. seems to slowly realize now that to influence Putin it must speak
his language, that of power. Still, it has to use the right tools. The
Magnitsky Act, designed to punish Russian officials for human-rights
abuses, is one of the available tools, but so far Washington seems
to lack the will to use it.
As for Europe, it finally seems to recognize that it needs to be
capable of taking care of its own neighborhood. The frozen conflicts
in the post-Soviet space have been ignored for far too long. Why
did it take a war in Georgia to realize that Tbilisi required more
assistance from Europe? Why did it come as a surprise that Armenia,
a country on the brink of an open confrontation with Azerbaijan,
could be ruthlessly pressured into anything by Russia as long as
Moscow is the one providing for its security? Will it now be spurred
by another country retreating from the Eastern Partnership program,
or will the E.U. face the problem of how vulnerable the Transnistria
conflict makes Moldova?
Russia’s behavior toward Ukraine might hand Europe an opportunity to
become more united and effective in its foreign policy. This would
not be the first time Putin’s aggressive policies backfired. One
of the most remarkable achievements of the E.U. recently is how it
has learned to stand up against Gazprom’s monopolistic practices. A
few years ago, the E.U.-Russia energy relations were all about the
former’s defenselessness. Today, the news is about raids in Gazprom’s
European offices, the European Commission’s plans to try the energy
giant in an antitrust case and most recently, Brussels’ calls for the
renegotiation of Gazprom’s bilateral agreements. As a result, it is
now Gazprom that has started working toward a settlement with the E.U.
(MORE: Putin’s Latest Moves Tip the Balance of Power Toward Russia)
In 2006, observers and leaders inside and out of Russia expressed
doubts as to the true nature of Putin and what he was creating. Now
those doubts seem to be gone: for many, Russia has moved from the
domination of one party to the despotism of one man. And yet on Jan.
1, 2014, Russia became the chair of the G-8, the group of the world’s
major industrial democracies, despite being neither a functioning
democracy nor an industrial economy. The remaining seven governments
must ask themselves why they embrace an unacceptable status quo.
The past few weeks of headlines out of Russia should also serve notice
to those who claim that Putin’s repression has at least come with the
benefits of predictability and stability. The sudden and unexplained
release of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the institution of martial law around
the Sochi Olympics region, the twin terrorist bombings in Volgograd –
these are not the signs of a stable and reliable environment.
Disconnected from the people, every authoritarian government
inevitably faces challenges beyond its ability to respond and to
produce a positive agenda. This unmooring often leads to the creation
of scapegoats and enemies and to increasingly erratic behavior.
Another recent move by Putin illustrates quite well his priorities
and outlook for the future. On Dec. 9, he suddenly announced the
dissolution of the state news agency RIA Novosti and the formation of
a new, apparently strictly propaganda outlet. This is an additional
step down the spiral of despotism: when reality does not conform to
the needs of the people, produce more propaganda to convince the
people that reality is not real. However, in this era of Internet
and globalization, the truth cannot be hidden for long.
The recent events in Kiev should caution us against assessments
that put policy over principles and attempts to stand in the path
of history for the sake of a more comfortable present. The massive
pro-E.U. crowds in Ukraine serve as a perfect example to the Kremlin
and its beleaguered subjects that there is no genetic condition called
immunity to democracy. How will the E.U. and the U.S. react to the –
probably inevitable – rise of the Russian people? Let us hope they
are not too meek to stand up for the universal values on which they
were founded.
Zu Guttenberg is a former German Minister of Defense and Minister of
Economics, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Kasparov is the leader of the Russian pro-democracy group United
Civil Front and chairman of the U.S.-based Human Rights Foundation.
From: A. Papazian
http://ideas.time.com/2014/01/06/putin-is-basking-in-an-astonishing-leadership-vacuum/