TINDERBOX SUMMER: ANALYSTS DISCUSS PEACE AND WAR PROSPECTS FOR KARABAKH
Karabakh | 09.07.10 | 12:37
An Armenian tank memorial near the outskirts of Stepanakert, Karabakh.
Most analysts in Yerevan rule out the resumption of large-scale
hostilities in what now is the zone of conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Yet, some say the threat of war will never cease for
Karabakh until a compromise-based solution is found to the protracted
dispute.
This week European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus
Peter Semneby said the region still remains fragile and unpredictable.
“The unresolved conflicts in the South Caucasus are the primary
threats to the region’s stability since the status quo is inherently
unstable and contains dangers of escalation. This was demonstrated by
the August 2008 war in Georgia. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is of
particular concern; there are recurring deadly incidents along the line
of contact,” Semneby said. “The protracted conflicts also undermine
EU efforts to promote political reform and economic development in
its Eastern neighborhood.”
The talk of imminent resumption of hostilities in Karabakh and related
speculations have become more frequent among political circles in
Armenia. The international community has also expressed its concern
over the matter, as world leaders, namely of the United States,
France and Russia, which jointly mediate the Armenia-Azerbaijan talks
on Karabakh, have urged the parties to the conflict to resolve the
problem peacefully, on the basis of so-called Madrid principles.
(The plan, or its various modifications, which was first submitted
to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan by the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs in 2007 and is currently on the table of negotiations,
basically calls for an Armenian withdrawal from several districts
now controlled by the Karabakh military, the return of Azerbaijani
refugees, security guarantees for the Armenian population and
an interim status for Karabakh with the possibility of a future
determination of the region’s ultimate legal status.)
During a meeting with journalists in Yerevan Deputy Chairman of the
CIS Affairs Committee at the Russian State Duma Konstantin Zatulin
said he did not think large-scale military operations would resume
in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.
“Perhaps there will be provocations, including dangerous ones and ones
that lead to human casualties, as it happened very recently, but, in my
opinion, [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev will not dare to start a
war that will jeopardize Azerbaijan’s and his own fate,” said Zatulin.
Deadly fighting erupted last month as Azerbaijani commandos attempted
to overrun the Karabakh Armenian positions in the northeast, killing
four and wounding as many Armenian soldiers. One Azeri soldier
was also reportedly killed in the close engagement after which the
Karabakh forces managed to stop the enemy’s advancement into the
Armenian-controlled territories and make it withdraw.
The overnight clash, which occurred within hours after the latest
round of peace talks between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
and was condemned by Yerevan as a provocation, emphasized the shaky
state of the ceasefire that has largely held in the conflict zone
for 16 years. The Russia-brokered agreement of 1994 put an end to
nearly three years of fighting that claimed an estimated 30,000 lives
on both sides. It left the Karabakh forces in control of most of the
former Armenian-populated autonomous region of Azerbaijan as well as
seven districts outside it held as a security zone.
This week Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a meeting with the
former Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri community during which he reiterated
that Baku will seek to restore the country’s territorial integrity.
In his speech, President Aliyev said that if Azerbaijan saw that the
peace process had exhausted itself, it would choose to resolve the
matter militarily and claimed that international law gave Azerbaijan
that right.
Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) Director
Richard Giragosian thinks that Azerbaijan will not officially declare
war and will not launch a large-scale offensive, because in that case
it will be at the receiving end both militarily or in terms of its
domestic politics.
“Azerbaijan can do it and it can be expected that such attempts might
be made during summer months. The Armenian army must be ready for
this likely ‘accidental war’,” said Giragosian, speaking during a
roundtable discussion in Yerevan early this week.
Another political analyst in Yerevan Suren Surenyants says the
current peace plan may contain some ‘vague’ provisions and wording not
favorable for Armenians, but does not think it advisable to withdraw
from talks “even in the case of negative proposals”.
“Because pulling out of the negotiations will mean a war. We must
mobilize all our internal resources to get the maximum from the
negotiating process,” says Surenyants, who is also a member of the
opposition Hanrapetutyun party’s political council.
The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to
meet, possibly in a broader format, on the sidelines of an OSCE
ministerial conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan, at the end of next
week. The international mediators called for such a meeting during
their shuttle diplomacy tour of the region last week.
From: A. Papazian
http://www.armenianow.com/karabakh/24093/analysts_karabakh_war_prospect