THE AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT’S “FORCE” DOCTRINE
Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
July 14, 2014 Monday
On July 9, two years later after the traditional meeting with his
diplomatic corps, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, for the
first time, openly declared his upgraded foreign policy doctrine of
“Power is everything”. Head of State clearly made it clear that he
is armed and guided by the doctrine of “the Force”, which now, in
his opinion, is dominant in the world and international relations.
His approach to the doctrine of “the Force” is ambiguous. In the first
part of the presentation of his understanding of “force”, Aliyev did
not accept the “strength” of great powers against Azerbaijan, and in
particular, in the Karabakh conflict and political situation; but in
the second part of their public reasoning in this regard the President
rejects this doctrine as an instrument of foreign and domestic policy
of Azerbaijan. For the development of such a doctrine Aliyev relies
on oil, through which the state has yet tangible advantages over its
neighbors, first and foremost, a relatively hostile Armenia.
However, Azerbaijan’s share in the global oil scenario is just over
1%, and its impact on the global economy is not significant, as is
evidenced by the degree of equity in the oil cake, which is a measure
of force. The latest bleak trend of steady decline of Azerbaijani oil
production (from 50 million tons in 2010 to 42 million tons in 2013)
show that its value will decrease rapidly due to reduction of its
own reserves, and release to the world markets mothballed reserves
of oil powers. Experience of the top ten developed countries shows
that the basis of “Force” of their economies is not material, but
political resources, such as democracy, rule of law, freedom of speech,
political and economic pluralism, a free person and fair competition,
lack of monopoly, and a strong middle class.
One of the directions to achieve “the Force” Aliyev outlines the
policy of equidistance between the balance of powers, alliances –
political, religious, and ethnic. According to Aliyev, “the Force”
is hidden in the third world, the third way of development of
“self-sufficient” path of development. What does the president
imply under self-sufficiency? This political-economic concept
particularly is used to their state status in Russia, a successor
of the USSR. Even Putin understands what happened to the Soviet
self-sufficient power, cut off from the world integration processes,
what Russia is experiencing in the eternal search of its own path.
It should be noted that during his twelve-year reign Ilham Aliyev
developed and strengthened the policy of equidistance of his father,
Heydar Aliyev, by setting virtually nothing binding relationship with
the EU, the OSCE, the Council of Europe, OIC, NAM, Commonwealth and
others, and bilateral relations with large and small states.
But this equidistance, which provided stability of Aliyev’s personal
power and strengthening the presidential vertical, did not solve the
Karabakh conflict, did not raise the country’s economic and social
prosperity, did not free its citizens, and could not give them the
rights and obligations that have given their citizens the former
socialist countries and the Baltic republics, which uniquely follow
the European development vector.
In his speech to the Azerbaijani diplomats president, as commander
in chief, called the Armed Forces, the next important argument “Force.”
Aliyev once again boasted a growing combat power of the national
army, ready, as he believes, by his order to win the war planned
by generals. But the same experience of modern wars, of such
self-sufficient countries as Azerbaijan, shows that the military
“Force”, based on tactical weapons, and designed for warfare tactics
operations even during the Second World War, is not an indication of
“the Force.”
Finally, another argument for self-sufficient “Force”, according to the
President Aliyev, is an import of Azerbaijani investments in overseas
projects. It’s not new know-how to developing countries, which on the
one hand, borrows investments from international financial institutions
and private companies, and on the other hand, provides the export of
capital to non-transparent, for Azerbaijan, foreign projects under the
pretext of preventing overheating of the Azerbaijani economy which
is experiencing hard times. Foreign experience in key oil business
does not show the best results. The question is what is advantage
of the use of offshore activity structure, the state oil company –
SOCAR trading, which by the end of 2013 with revenue of $ 30 billion
transferred to the chief company of SOCAR less than a billion dollars?
But it is not a problem for the president, who noted in the end of
his speech that “the power and self-sufficient” rate remains intact,
at least until the next meeting of diplomats in 2016: “I want to stress
again Azerbaijan’s principled, consistent foreign policy. Azerbaijan
will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy. Azerbaijan
Diplomatic Corps works successfully. In general, I am satisfied with
your work. There may be various errors, shortcomings, but, in general,
the Azerbaijani diplomacy is undergoing a period of development. I
wish you new success in the work. ”
From: A. Papazian