Prolongation of period of deployment of the Russian military base in
Gyumri will enhance Nagorno-Karabakh’s security
David Stepanyan, ArmInfo, 25.08.10
2010-08-26 12:42:00
Interview with Director of foundation Gagik Harutyunyan
Mr. Harutyunyan, today our public is divided on the expediency of
prolonging the period of deployment of the Russian military base in
our territory. Does this agreement meet our national interests?
The contract between Armenia and Russia on prolongation of the terms
of the 102-nd Russian military base staying in Armenia is of the
strategical nature and requires certain period of time. In this
context there is nothing strange in prolongation of the contract on
Russian frontier guards staying in Armenia taking into consideration
that something similar happened in case of the Russian base in
Sevastopol. The unavoidable processes, which promote increasing of
Moscow’s influence, take place in those geo-political sectors of
area in which Russia considers its presence as vital necessity. It is
very much important that not only the
contract was prolonged but its content was also changed, according to
which security of Armenia will be provided along with security of
Russia and Moscow will deliver new types of armament to Yerevan.
This is conditioned by the national interests of Armenia and meets
them, as Turkey being next to us, is a direct participant in the
Karabakh conflict.
Is Turkey still dangerous?
The threat of military invasion of the territory of Armenia by Turkey
has never disappeared completely.
Let’s recall the year 1992 when the armed force of Nagorny Karabakh
liberated the Lachin corridor and the situation on the frontline
sharply changed in our favor. Then Turkey deployed along the border
with Armenia the field army comprising at least several thousand of
manpower, over 1000 of tanks, several thousand of helicopters etc.
The Armenian army was on alert especially considering the
incomparable forces of Armenia and Turkey. And the attack would be
inevitable and the aftermaths would be terrible but for interference
of Russia in the person of Marshal Shaposhnikov, Head of the CIS
United Troops General Staff. Specifically, he made a very tough
statement at the Yerevan airport saying that interference of a third
country into the Karabakh conflict would unleash the World War III and
stopped Turkey’s adventure.
Turkey made another attempt in 1993 taking advantage of the mess in
Moscow and it was the Russian General Staff’s interference that
prevented Turkey’s aggression. Representatives of the Turkish
establishment have always hinted at the threat of Turkey’s invasion of
Armenia. Turkey’s army comprises almost 500,000 and it is the
strategic rival of Armenia. Hence, Russia’s military presence in
Armenia is the only real protection against Turkey’s aggression.
So, the prolongation of the terms of the Russian military base staying
in Gyumri is the only right decision taking into account that this
factor also enhances security
of Nagornyy Karabakh in a certain sense.
How?
The contract on prolongation and extension of power of
Russian servicemen directly affects the situation around Nagornyy
Karabakh, as it reduces the length of the battle actions front line
against Azerbaijan. Today Armenia and the NKR do not have complexes
regarding Azerbaijan. Nevertheless creation of favorable conditions
are not excessive in case of resumption of the Azerbaijani
aggression, since any encroachment at the Armenian border will
unavoidably come across the relevant point of the Armenian-Russian
agreement.
Even if these encroachments are aimed at Karabakh only?
It is natural that they will be aimed at Karabakh only, but in that
case the potential of the military and political maneuvers of Armenia
will grow.
We will not be simply forced to keep our troops only in the
Nakhichevan, Ijevan and Goris directions. That is to say, this
contract increases our opportunities to help Nagornyy Karabakh to
protect its independence which is fully stemming from the interests of
Armenia.
Is there threat that Armenia may turn into Russian’s outpost in the
South Caucasus?
Today really much is said about the threat of Armenia’s turning into
the Russian outpost in the South Caucasus especially in the context of
prolongation of the terms of the Russian military base staying in
Armenia.
They also say all this hurts Armenia and reduces its
sovereignty.
However, I would like to say that the USA has more than 700 military
bases in all over the world, half of which are in Europe. At present
more than 70 thsd American servicemen are deployed in Germany, about
10 thsd in the Great Britain and Italy, in Spain, Portugal, the
Netherlands and finally in the Turkish Injerlik
respectively. Moreover, Americans have already placed their “Patriot”
systems at the territory of Poland and Czech Republic.
American military bases are not conceived in these
countries in the context of their sovereignty reduction, like in
Armenia, where 5 thsd Russian servicemen directly but not
hypothetically, like in case of American bases in Europe, implement
their task on guarding of our borders.
Armenia is the only post-Soviet republic having so close relations with Russia…
That is really so, but it is not correct to say that this decreases
the level of our sovereignty in some sense
not only from the geo-political but also realistic point of view.
According to the American magazine “Foreign affairs” which presents
the level of freedom and independence of developing countries, the
rating of Armenia is 5,5 points, Russia – 4, Georgia, which is
considered a country guided from outside – 6, Azerbaijan – 6,5, and
Turkey and Iran – 6. That is to say, by the level of independence
Armenia is the first country in the region.
This is fully stemming from the multi-vector foreign policy of Armenia
with NATO and CSTO member-states, Russia and the USA. For this reason,
one cannot speak about reduction of Armenia’s sovereignty after
signing of the contract with Russia from any point of view.
It is strange that the Armenian-Russian agreements have received no
response from the West, Turkey and, first of all, Azerbaijan…
It is surprising, of course, that the West, Turkey and first of all
Azerbaijan have not responded or commented on the Armenian-Russian
arrangements. The Armenian Foreign Ministry has after all showed some
discontent.
I think, however, Turkey keeps busy and the best evidence of my words
are the visit of President Gul to Baku and the treaty concluded on the
threshold of Medvedev’s visit to Yerevan. It was a direct preventive
response to the Russian-Armenian arrangements. As for silence of the
western mass media, the political expert believes that it does not
reflect the full situation and response of
the West and prefers live broadcasting of terrorist attacks on a bus
with captives.
At the same time, I think this silence is certain hidden form of the
West’s discontent for they do not welcome the growing influence of
their rival Russia in the region. It is especially relevant
considering the possible radical change of the situation in case of
political changes in Georgia that is still an anti-Russian country.
When asked by Armenian journalists what Russia would do in case of new
Azeri aggression against the Armenian side, President Medvedev said
that Russia would not like the August 2008 events to recur. Was it a
direct allusion to the Aliyev regime?
I think that Medvedev’s Yerevan statement is indirectly, but taking
into account his diplomatic manner of communication, directly
addressed to Baku.
The statement contains direct hint at Aliyev’s regime, as
Russia is not absolutely interested in resumption of the
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as it has very big gas
projects with Azerbaijan. At the same time despite this and making of
the strategic contract between Azerbaijan and Turkey, the statement
says that nevertheless blocks will be set up and polarization of the
forces in the region will continue taking into account the natural
enhancing of the union between Armenia and Russia in such conditions.
I think Russians understand all this very well and take into
consideration, as over the last period of time Russia has started
playing more important part in the Karabakh settlement. I mean the
last trilateral meeting of the presidents in Petersburg, where certain
Petersburg principles of settlement were drawn out parallel to the
Madrid principles. For this reason, I do not think that in Azerbaijan
they treat Medvedev’s worlds indifferently.
From: A. Papazian