HAS ALIYEV APPROVED MEDVEDEV’S PROPOSALS?
Panorama
Sept 10 2010
Armenia
The passions over Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to
Azerbaijan have already calmed down. Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian
experts agreed that the visit was a standard one and did not have any
special significance. Certainly, it is difficult to oppose to these
common assessments, though, with reservation.
First, about the importance of the visit, or rather lack of
importance. Experts studying the schedule of Russian President’s
visit to Baku on the eve of the visit already concluded – no political
problem would be resolved.
The point is that the list of issues scheduled to be discussed at
Dmitry Medvedev – Ilham Aliyev meeting indeed was beyond the format
of Presidents’ bilateral contacts.
Obviously, the issue of the Russian-Azerbaijani border is not the
business of the Presidents. It is an issue due to be discussed by
Deputy Ministers. The Russian President has been never reported to
discuss border issues with Georgia or Kazakhstan. The activities
related to the Armenian-Georgian border are also coordinated by the
Deputy Foreign Ministers. Therefore, placing that issue on Medvedev –
Aliyev meeting’s agenda suggests that they had to fill up the agenda
of bilateral discussions.
The same can be said about the Caspian Sea status. The bilateral
format is not efficient in that issue, either. Discussion of the issue
in the absence of the Presidents of the rest of coastal countries –
Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan also suggests that the Presidents’
talk lacked content, thus they tried to fill up the gap by discussing
undue issues.
The issue of increasing Azerbaijani gas supplies to Russia is a
commercial matter beyond Presidents’ jurisdiction. The Azerbaijani and
Russian leaders were not going to discuss provision of Gazprom with
the total volume of gas exported from Azerbaijan, they were merely
planning to sign a document on increasing gas supplies to the extent
sufficient to satisfy the needs of a medium-sized Russian regional
center, thus Presidents’ interference was absolutely unnecessary.
Therefore, taking into consideration the circumstances mentioned
above, political analysts and experts established the fact that
Dmitry Medvedev’s visit lacked a political component. Almost without
exception, experts are unanimous in that issue.
At first, there were disagreements over the propaganda effect of
Russian President’s visit to Baku, but they are gradually smoothing.
What is the matter?
It was no secret that Medvedev’s “voyage” to Azerbaijan proceeded in
the context of his visit to Armenia and the agreements reached during
that visit.
The protocol on extension of the Russian military base deployment
term was signed during Russian President’s visit to Yerevan, and many
said that the goal of Dmitry Medvedev’s travel to Baku was retaining
the balance.
Azerbaijani political circles did not even conceal their expectations.
They expected Medvedev to declare in Baku that he was misunderstood
in Yerevan and Russia is not going to carry out its allied commitments
in case of a military operation in the South Caucasus (in Yerevan, the
Russian President spoke about it exactly, without diplomatic coquetry).
Russian President’s assertion in Baku that Russia’s agreement with
Armenia did not have “reefs” against Azerbaijan and is aimed at
keeping peace and stability in the region satisfied Baku’s expectations
at first.
Azerbaijan was especially encouraged by Russian President’s and Foreign
Minister Lavrov’s comments that the Russian-Armenian document does
not envisage a change in the military base functions.
However, only initially. Azerbaijan got disappointed very soon.
Probably, Baku analyzing the facts understood that the Russian
authorities did not refute their former statements, moreover, they
confirmed them.
Thus, Russia’s assertion about lack of “reefs” can be interpreted as
a hint at exactness and transparency of Armenian-Russian cooperation
and the advice to consider the presence of the military base as a
guarantee of peace as an appeal for restraint addressed to Azerbaijan.
Speaking about the manipulations of the statement on the military
base functions we must say that the protocol signed on August 20 in
Yerevan indeed did not change the military base functions, it merely
specified the geography of those functions.
That is why Azerbaijan’s delight turned into disappointment. Baku’s
propaganda executives understood that they are not able to make a
regular anti-Armenian hysteria over Medvedev’s visit.
And now about the reservation. Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Baku is
indeed noteworthy in the context of the process of Nagorno Karabakh
conflict peaceful resolution. Not of the Nagorno Karabakh problem
but the process of problem peaceful resolution.
What is the matter? In this phase Azerbaijan makes various manoeuvres
so as not to express its opinion over the proposals discussed in the
last round of talks in Saint Petersburg. At first Azerbaijan declared
that no proposals were presented in Saint Petersburg; later, when
the fact was already obvious, some Azerbaijani officials referred
to the circumstance that the proposals were presented by Russia,
while the Minsk Group is empowered for a mediation mission.
Baku did not stop making evasive statements even after the co-chairs
assured with a joint statement in Almaty that they completely support
official Moscow’s efforts. Dmitry Medvedev visited Baku on the very
background and spoke about the necessity of keeping and intensifying
the contacts, and Ilham Aliyev had to thank Russia and Dmitry Medvedev
personally for their efforts.
One might ask – why did Ilham Aliyev thank Moscow, while his
administration constantly complains that Russia should not have
presented proposals on its own? Can we perceive his thanks to Medvedev
as public acceptance of Petersburg proposals? If yes, we can establish
that Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Baku yielded serious results, against
the lack of content.
From: A. Papazian