RUSSIA TURNS OUT TO BE TURKEY’S RIVAL IN THE CAUCASUS
by Yury Simonyan
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
RusData Dialine – Russian Press Digest
November 2, 2010 Tuesday
The National Security Council (NSC) of Turkey has introduced amendments
to the National Security Strategy which will be in effect for the
next five years. Among the countries that have been removed from the
list of states that are considered to pose direct threat to Turkey
are two former Soviet republics, Armenia and Georgia. Iran, Syria
and Bulgaria were withdrawn from the list as well, while Israel
was included in the “red list.” It was expected that Russia would
be excluded from the list of Turkey’s potential enemies, especially
considering the positive dynamic of the development of relations in
the recent period. However, that did not happen.
Aleksey Malashenko, an expert with the Moscow Carnegie Center,
does not see anything strange in Turkey’s latest corrections to the
“red list” – it is a realistic approach that objectively reflects
the geopolitical situation.
“With the current charisma in Russian-Turkish relations, and with all
the good intentions, Turkey will be a serious competitor for Russia,”
Aleksey Malashenko told Nezavisimaya Gazeta (NG). “And Turkey’s
rising presence in the South Caucasus, which is already evident,
will lead to fairly noticeable controversies – and not only in regard
to Nagorno-Karabakh and natural gas, but also in general. Today,
Turkey is a power that is, with the exception of nuclear weapons,
comparable with Russia. And that is something we need to get used to.”
And on the other side, the inclusion of Georgia in the circle of
Turkey’s foes looked like nonsense, especially considering the fact
that Tbilisi had long included Ankara in the list of its strategic
partners. Therefore, removal of Georgia from the list of potentially
threatening states cannot be called anything other than logical. The
head of the South Caucasus Institute for Regional Security (SCIRS),
Aleksandr Rusetsky, told NG: “It’s strange that Turkey did this now,
and not earlier. Georgia’s inclusion in Turkey’s ‘red list’ is the
price of the past, the Soviet era.”
Georgia’s state minister for reintegration and deputy prime minister,
Temuri Yakobashvili, said the amendments introduced by the NSC of
Turkey correspond to the spirit of Turkish-Georgian relations.
“The relations between Turkey and Georgia could be referred to as
‘model relations,’ regardless of our complex history,” Yakobashvili
told NG. “Today, our relations are developing dynamically in all
areas: politics, economics and the humanitarian sphere. This is the
format of relations that we would like to have with all countries,
and most importantly with Russia.”
With Armenia, the situation is more complicated than with Georgia. In
addition to the fact that diplomatic relations were broken between
Erevan and Ankara, in the Military Doctrine of Armenia, Turkey
is listed as a “potential threat,” which, in the course of an
international examination of the document in 2008, led to criticism
on behalf of NATO experts. It would be logical to assume that the
changes to Turkey’s Security Strategy would have resulted in Armenia
softening its position in response. However, things are not so simple.
A high-ranking official with Armenia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs
told NG that one should probably not expect to see any changes in
Erevan’s policies for as long as Ankara continues the anti-Armenian
actions on the international arena, until it ratifies the Swiss
protocols for the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, as well
as starts taking practical action in accordance with these protocols.
“The amendments adopted by the Security Council of Turkey are the
internal affairs of Ankara,” the source told NG. “We are, on the
other hand, looking at the given state of affairs, which differs from
Turkey’s declared goodwill toward it neighbors.”
Ankara’s changes to the “red list” are part of the sequential
continuation of Turkey’s regional policies. This country has made it a
goal to become the regional leader in the South Caucasus and be in the
forefront of the world’s strongest players. Hence the slogan declared
by Turkey’s authorities: “There are zero problems with our neighbors.”
The far-reaching ambitions of a state with a population of 100
million, a booming economy and one of the most powerful armies in
the world simply do not allow including Armenia, a country under a
partial blockade with a population of 3 million, in the list of its
main enemies.
The director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Armenian
National Academy of Sciences, Ruben Safrastyan, called Ankara’s
actions logical.
“Armenia, based on its internal policy doctrine, does not pose a
threat to anyone – we are not planning on attacking or threatening
anyone. Turkey is perfectly aware of this, and in the 1990s, Turkish
generals stressed that the only country in the region that somehow
threatens Ankara’s interests is Russia. So, in that sense, exclusion of
Armenia from the ‘red list’ could be regarded as a PR move,” Safrastyan
told NG. “But what kind of improved relations could it lead to if the
countries don’t even have an interstate agreement?! Yes, the Armenian
society considers the Kars Treaty, which was imposed on Armenia and
which determines the current borders of the two states, to be unjust –
but officially, we are not disputing it. Armenia became part of the UN,
and that is proof of recognition of the current territory of Turkey.”
According to Safrastyan, ctual relations between Ankara and Erevan
will not change as a result of the exclusion of Armenia from the
Turkish “red list.” The condition in which these relations are
today includes Turkey’s continued pressure on Armenia in regard to
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and regarding the question of Armenia’s
renunciation of the Armenian Genocide committed under the Ottoman
Empire.
Another source in Erevan, a former high-ranking staff member of the
republic’s Defense Ministry, told NG: “If everything was indeed so
simple and kind-hearted with Turkey, we would not have to prolong
the deployment of the Russian military base in Armenia for another
49 years.”
The president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies, General
Colonel Leonid Ivashov, told NG: the base is one thing, but Armenia’s
exclusion from the list of enemies, especially considering the fact
that Russia remains in that list, looks like Turkey’s attempt to
“get some strategic partners, and strengthen its positions in the
South Caucasus down to the point of becoming its full-fledged master.”
“Unfortunately, with its indecisiveness on its southern borders,
Russia makes this possible. And when seeing this indecisiveness, its
allies lose confidence,” Ivashov told NG. According to him, in general,
the fact that Russia was not removed from Ankara’s “red list” shows
that our diplomats have failed to fully develop our policy on Turkey.
“It should also be taken into consideration that Turkey is a member
of NATO. And, Turkey’s decision in regard to Russia was most likely
influenced by enormous US pressure. It seems to me that a certain kind
of an exchange took place: Ankara was allowed to include Israel in its
list of enemies – the Turkish society truly sees Israel as an enemy –
but in return, Russia will be left in the list of hostile states. Some
sort of bargain took place here,” Ivashov told NG.
According to him, it should be considered that so far, in the South
Caucasus as well as in the “entire great region,” Russia and Turkey
are competitors. Ivashov also believes that the decision of Turkey’s
NSC to keep Moscow in the list of enemies could have been promoted
by the signing of a military cooperation agreement between Russia
and Israel on September 6 – “it is not quite an alliance, but we are
already working together against someone.”
“It is evident that Russia has already agreed to obtain information
and provide something to Israel against the Islamic world… As a
response, we got what we got,” Ivashov told NG.
At the same time, however, the president of the Academy of Geopolitical
Studies does not exclude the possibility that Turkey’s next revision
of the National Security Strategy, which will be held in five years,
will differ.
“Russia will be excluded from the ‘red list,’ said Ivashov. “Turkey
is in a transitional state. It is not completely ousted from Europe:
It is still a member of NATO, but is not allowed to become part of the
European Union. Turkey has marked a shift toward the Islamic world,
with which it is, at the same time, not allied. It needs partners.”
From: A. Papazian