Author: Andres-Papazian

TURQUIE : L’ARMEE OUVRE LE FEU CONTRE LES REBELLES DU PKK, LE PROCESSUS DE PAIX MENACE

TURQUIE

La Turquie a bombarde lundi des positions des rebelles kurdes du Parti
des travailleurs du Kurdistan (PKK), un premier accroc arme serieux
aux pourparlers de paix lances il y a deux ans et deja serieusement
menaces par la guerre qui fait rage en Syrie voisine.

Quelques jours après les violentes emeutes prokurdes qui ont secoue
le pays, des chasseurs F-16 de l’armee de l’air ont frappe plusieurs
cibles du PKK qui, selon les forces de securite, ont attaque a
plusieurs reprises ces trois derniers jours un poste de police dans
le village de Daglica (sud-est).

Dans la region voisine de Tunceli, des helicoptères d’attaque turcs
ont egalement ouvert le feu lundi contre d’autres unites du PKK,
après des affrontements entre rebelles et armee signales autour de
Geyiksuyu, a ajoute l’etat-major.

Dans une declaration ecrite, la branche armee du mouvement rebelle a
confirme l’attaque menee a Daglica et accuse l’armee turque d’avoir
“rompu le cessez-le-feu” qu’il avait unilateralement decrete en
mars 2013.

Le Premier ministre Ahmet Davutoglu a de son côte justifie ces
operations, qu’il a qualifiees de “mesures necessaires”. “Nous ne
pouvons tolerer, ni faire la moindre concession” face aux agissements
du PKK, a-t-il ajoute devant la presse.

Ces incidents, les plus graves enregistres depuis deux ans, illustrent
les menaces qui pèsent sur le fragile processus de paix engage entre
Ankara et le PKK.

Cette brusque montee des tensions trouve son origine en Syrie, où
l’offensive des jihadistes du groupe Etat islamique (EI) menace la
ville kurde de Kobane.

En colère contre le refus du gouvernement islamo-conservateur d’Ankara
de voler militairement au secours de Kobane (Aïn al-Arab en arabe),
des milliers de jeunes kurdes sont descendus dans les rues de tout
le pays la semaine dernière, provoquant des emeutes qui ont fait au
moins 34 morts et des centaines de blesses.

Le president turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan a hausse le ton en condamnant
l’action de “voyous” a la solde d’une “organisation terroriste”,
en l’occurrence le PKK, et denonce une tentative de “sabotage” des
pourparlers qu’il a promis, lui, de sauver.

“Montrer les muscles” –

Son principal interlocuteur, le chef emprisonne du PKK Abdullah Ocalan,
a de son côte averti que la chute de Kobane signifierait de facto
la mort de toute discussion et presse Ankara de presenter avant ce
mercredi un calendrier pour les relancer.

“Le PKK et le gouvernement montrent leurs muscles”, a commente a l’AFP
Nihat Ali Ozcan, analyste au centre de recherches Tepav d’Ankara. “Le
processus de paix va peut-etre tomber a l’eau un jour mais ce jour
n’est pas arrive”.

Ankara a repris a l’automne 2012 des negociations directes avec M.

Ocalan pour tenter de mettre un terme a une rebellion qui a fait
40.000 morts depuis 1984.

Le PKK a decrete un cessez-le-feu en mars suivant puis commence a
retirer ses forces vers leurs bases du mont Kandil, dans le nord du
territoire irakien.

Mais ce mouvement a ete interrompu il y a un an, les Kurdes jugeant
que le regime d’Ankara n’avait pas tenu ses promesses de reformes en
faveur de leur communaute, qui compte 15 millions de personnes, 20%
de la population.

Les discussions depuis etaient largement paralysees, malgre les
promesses reiterees par M. Erdogan, après son election a la presidence
en août, de parvenir a une solution.

L’offensive jihadiste en Irak puis en Syrie a fait derailler ce
scenario.

Si elle a accueilli dans l’urgence sur son sol quelque 200.000 refugies
kurdes, la Turquie s’est inquietee des risques d’un renforcement des
forces kurdes, en première ligne contre le groupe EI.

Elle refuse ainsi de les laisser transiter par sa frontière pour
rejoindre le front de Kobane, alimentant la suspicion et la rancoeur
des Kurdes.

Malgre ces tensions, Ankara a promis de tout faire pour sauver les
pourparlers de paix.

“Ce processus n’est pas lie a Kobane ni a aucun evenement qui se
deroule hors de nos frontières”, a assure mardi M. Davutoglu. “Il
est très important pour nous”, a-t-il repete, “s’il vous plaît ne le
sabotez pas”.

mercredi 15 octobre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

DES COMBATTANTS KURDES SYRIENS EN GREVE DE LA FAIM CONTRE LEUR DETENTION EN TURQUIE

TURQUIE

Pus d’une centaine de combattants kurdes de la ville syrienne de
Kobane assieges par les jihadistes ont entame une grève de la faim
pour denoncer leur detention par les autorites turques lorsqu’ils
franchissent la frontière notamment pour se faire soigner.

Ankara les soupconne de liens avec les rebelles kurdes de Turquie.

Selon un depute turc pro-kurde, quelque 160 membres du Parti de l’union
democratique (PYD), le principal parti kurde syrien, sont retenus
depuis neuf jours a Suruc, a proximite de la frontière syrienne,
et ont commence une grève de la faim.

“Ils sont retenus sans qu’aucune charge ne pèse sur eux, dans la
plus grande incertitude juridique, c’est un drame”, a regrette
auprès de l’AFP Ibrahim Ayhan, elu du parti democratique populaire
(HDP, prokurde).

Une centaine d’autres membres du PYD, hommes et femmes, retenus par les
autorites turques a leur entree sur le territoire turc en provenance de
Kobane, ont ete relâches dans la nuit de lundi a mardi, a-t-il ajoute,
precisant que la plupart etait repartie pour combattre côte syrien.

Un responsable local a affirme a l’AFP sous couvert de l’anonymat
que ces personnes avaient ete arretees pour un contrôle d’identite
“de routine”.

“Depuis un certain temps, tous ceux qui viennent de l’autre côte de la
frontière sont soient membre des YPG (Unites de protection du peuple,
la principale milice armee kurde de Syrie), soit du PKK (le Parti des
travailleurs du Kurdistan, la rebellion kurde de Turquie)”, a ajoute
ce responsable, pour qui “il s’agit de la securite du pays”.

Ankara n’entretient pas de relations officielles avec le PYD qu’elle
considère comme la branche syrienne du PKK, un mouvement classe comme
“terroriste”.

Mardi, le Premier ministre islamo-conservateur turc Ahmet Davutoglu a
accuse le PYD d’avoir “torture” les deplaces kurdes de la region de
Kobane, dont quelque 200.000 ont franchi la frontière de la Turquie
pour fuir l’avancee jihadiste.

Malgre la pression de ses allies, Etats-Unis en tete, la Turquie refuse
d’intervenir pour sauver Kobane (Aïn al-Arab en arabe) assiegee par
les jihadistes, redoutant qu’une operation militaire ne renforce par
ricochet le president syrien Bachar al-Assad, sa bete noire, et les
Kurdes lies au PKK.

Mardi, des dizaines de proches des detenus se sont masses devant le
bâtiment où ils sont retenus sous protection de policiers en armes
pour exiger leur remise en liberte.

“Je suis ici pour mon fils. Il est retenu et je ne suis meme pas
autorisee a le visiter”, a deplore Fadile Sukriato, une refugiee de
Kobane, “ils ne sont accuses de rien, ils ne sont pas juges, pourquoi
on les garde dans cette prison ?”

mercredi 15 octobre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

L’ARMENIE TROUVE > LES RELATIONS MILITAIRES RUSSO-AZERBAIDJANAISES

CAUCASE

L’Armenie n’est pas alarmee par la croissance de la cooperation
militaire entre la Russie et l’Azerbaïdjan, selon le ministre de la
Defense Seyran Ohanian

Serguey Shoygu et le ministre de la Defense de l’Azerbaïdjan
Zakir Hasanov ont signe lundi un traite d’activites militaires
conjointes pour l’annee prochaine et ont annonce que davantage de
cadets azerbaïdjanais allaient desormais etudier dans les academies
militaires russes. Ils ont egalement parle d’une mise en oeuvre reussie
du programme 2013-2016 de cooperation militaro-technique bilaterale,
ce qui implique apparemment la continuation des livraisons d’armes
russes a l’Azerbaïdjan.

La Russie et l’Azerbaïdjan ont signe pour 4 milliards de dollars de
contrats de defense depuis 2010. Un chiffre qui pourrait s’elever a
5 milliards de dollars d’ici la fin de cette annee.

S’exprimant a l’issue des entretiens avec Hasanov, Shoygu a egalement
declare que les deux pays tiendront des exercices navals dans la mer
Caspienne l’annee prochaine. Il a indique que la Russie souhaitait
creer un > dans la region de la
mer Caspienne qui comprend l’Azerbaïdjan.

Ohanian a insiste sur l’idee que cette alliance ne poserait pas de
menace pour la securite de l’Armenie. >

mercredi 15 octobre 2014, Ara (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

GARNIK ISAGULYAN: THE PARTY OF INSOLENT PEOPLE APPOINTED TIGRANUHI SARGSYAN PRIME MINISTER OF ARMENIA

13:14 | October 15,2014 | Politics

The Eurasian Economic Union is the best choice that Armenia has made,
a former advisor to the Armenian president said on October 15.

“This was the best direction and I believe that all doubts and concerns
connected with the security of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are
gone. We have chosen a better way and I see no danger here,” said
Garnik Isagulyan.

Republican Vardan Ayvazyan was glad that Mr Isagulyan had the same
opinion on the issue. He reminded that Armenia becomes a full-fledged
member of the EEU starting January 1.

Speaking about the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union
and the United States, Mr Ayvazyan said they will not last long. “This
may result in the decline of transfers and tension, but we have made
a right choice,” he said meaning Armenia’s accession to the EEU.

During the meeting, Mr Isagulyan also spoke about the activity of the
ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) and stressed that the party
has failed in internal and external policies. He conventionally called
HHK the party of insolent people ‘who appointed Tigranuhi Sargsyan
Prime Minister of the country.’

From: A. Papazian

DOMESTIC PROBLEMS NOT ISOLATED FROM EEU ACCESSION PROCESS – OPINION

13:39 * 15.10.14

The domestic developments in Armenia cannot be said to run in parallel
with the accession to the Eurasian Economic Union, as the two processes
are intertwined and mutually dependent, says the president of the
Yerevan Press Club.

At a news conference on Wednesday, Boris Navasardyan cited the Eurasian
integration efforts and the opposition’s plans to continue its protest
as two major events shaping the country’s current political agenda.

“These two factors cannot be unrelated to one another. Strong though
the focus may be on the social problems and internal challenges,
they cannot be resolved beyond frameworks of the Eurasian Economic
cooperation,” he said, referring to the signing of the EUU accession
treaty.

Commenting on the opposition trio’s recent rally in Yerevan,
Navasardyan said he doesn’t think that the multitude of people who
joined the public event can really be considered opposition fans. He
said the enthusiasm observed in the past years’ rallies seems to have
already worn away.

Armenian News – Tert.am

From: A. Papazian

HOVHANNES IGITYAN: SERZH SARGSYAN’S GEOPOLITICAL CHOICE IS AN OBSTACLE FOR INVESTMENTS IN ARMENIA’S ECONOMY

ArmInfo’s Interview with Hovhannes Igityan, expert at the European
Business Association, member of the Armenian National Movement

by David Stepanyan

Tuesday, October 14, 23:52

The intensifying sanctions against Russia have already resulted
in considerable reduction in transfers from Russia to Armenia,
which is joining the Eurasian Economic Union. To all appearances,
the authorities are not so concerned with this tendency. Are you
concernedwith the situation?

Of course, the transfers equal to the budget of Armenia play a very
much great part in the social and economic life of the republic.

Nevertheless, it is wrong to watch them as a long-term panacea for
local problems. Today the transfers to Armenia are declining because
of worsening of the living standards in Russia, and because of the
worsening of the attitude to the labor migrants. This results in the
situation when it becomes more and more difficult for the Armenians to
work in Russia. Many of them are taking their families to Russia. This
results in considerable reduction of transfers to Armenia. Therefore,
Armenia’s development should be linked not with transfers but with
direct investments. The government, staying aside, simply watches
how social problems have been resolved without its meddling, and
make it possible to avoid at least food riots. One should take into
consideration that 20% of transfers enter the state budget in the
form of VAT, the rest also enter the state budget as various indirect
taxes. Nevertheless, to ensure the high quality development of the
Armenian economy, industry, we need direct foreign investments,
first of all.

Would you specify the figures and time of investments, which will
relieve Armenia of its dependency on transfers?

The matter concerns 2-3 billion EUR. Such investment in the Armenian
industrial sector will take 3-5 years. Our calculations show that
investment of the first billion of EUR will bring 100-120 thsd job
places, the second billion – 80-100 thsd, and the third one – even
fewer. That is to say, on the bad forecast we speak about 200-220
thsd job places with a good salary. It is impossible to account more
correctly. And if we take into consideration that one job place feeds
a family consisting of 4-5 persons, in that case we shall have 800
thsd-1 mln beneficiaries, that is to say, the number of our citizens
working abroad and sending transfers to the rest staying in Armenia.

In what fields may these direct investments be placed?

The President’s economists keep wondering what Armenia could export to
Europe if it joined the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. The
actual purpose of DCFTA was not to develop own production and to
export something but to create conditions that could encourage
investors worldwide to move their productions here. The matter
especially concerns the businesses in the countries having serious
social problems, particularly, Spain Greece, Italy.

Our labor migrants pin big hopes on Armenia’s Accession to the
Eurasian Economic Union. Will the accession improve their working
and living conditions?

I do not think that Armenia’s joining the EAEU may change anything
in the matter of the general attitude to the Armenians. However,
this attitude has been worsening as from time to time the Russian
politician-“patriots” watch labor migrants as a factor that hinders
local residents to get a job. The great majority of migrants have
been working in a shadow sector of the Russian economy that belongs
to the persons close to the power who are allowed to do practically
everything, just the same way as in Armenia.

On October 10, the Agreement on Armenia’s Accession to the Eurasian
Economic Union was signed amid the unprecedented toughening of the
sanctions against Russia. How could you explain this paradox?

Perfectly realizing the role of Russia and its potential in our region
and at the post-Soviet area, the politicians saying that Armenia should
not join the Eurasian Economic Union understand very well the possible
consequences of such a step for Armenia. Nevertheless, even in such
conditions, in Minsk Serzh Sargsyan should have demanded some time for
Armenia to revise the opportunities and risks of Armenia’s joining the
EAEU. Later it was necessary to declare about the balanced using of
DCFTA with the EU by Armenia, the available potential of free trade
with Russia and cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union being
formed. All this might be done without damaging Armenia.

Meanwhile, today Armenia is practically the only country, which in
the conditions of the global consolidated position regarding Russia,
stands next to Russia ex cathedra. Taking into consideration the
fact that all other calculations find themselves in a deadlock, the
reasons of such a behavior should be looked for in Serzh Sargsyan’s
weakness and political poor judgment. The ruling party has been
simply looking for an opportunity of its staying in power at least
for a short-term prospect so that at the personal level not to have
problems with the leadership of Russia. At the state level I see
no opportunity of Moscow to take aggressive steps towards Armenia,
as in all the spheres – military, political, economic and energy,
our country belongs to Russia.

You have mentioned that the DCFTA would have created favorable
conditions in Armenia for investing in the economy. What is the
obstacle for investments today?

Investments are never made just for fun. Even Armenia’s initialing the
AA/DCFTA would not have attracted investments to Armenia by itself. It
is only a tool to attract investments and Armenia should have used it.

Free competition, normal administration, cheap labor force and free
access to the main consumer markets are needed for the potential
investors seeking to obtain profit. All this was implied in the DCFTA.

So, is Serzh Sargsyan’s geopolitical choice an obstacle for
investments?

Yes, it certainly is. Of course, Sargsyan’s economists keep persuading
the people that once they join the Customs Union, the whole world will
rush to Armenia so as to produce something here and to sell it all over
the Eurasian Economic Union. In reality, this market is very corrupt
and not very rich. If you want to sell something in Chelyabinsk or
Yekaterinburg, you don’t have to produce it in a country that does
not even have a common border with Russia, you can as well do it in
Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg.

A politician from Diaspora has mentioned $500 bln when speaking of the
aggregate capital of the Armenians worldwide. What prevents the owners
of that capital and the authorities of Armenia from putting aside the
empty rhetoric and investing at least 1% of that capital in Armenia?

First of all, it is necessary to calculate which part of that capital
is in the pockets of the powers that be in Armenia (I think, no less
than 10 bln USD) and what part they have invested in Armenia. In the
meantime, I see their investments in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Latvia,
France, and Los Angeles. I see what funds they spend abroad. It is
also a factor and our compatriots from Diaspora also see that. The
patriotism time of our compatriots and potential investors has gone
and today they look at the situation in Armenia more soberly, i.e.

from the viewpoint of the investment profitability. Once I offered
a well-known French concessionary company to consider projects of
construction of tunnels, flyovers and parking lots in Armenia.

However, after a preliminary study of the terms, the French came
to the conclusion that their entry to the Armenian market was
inexpedient. In other words, Armenia, where the concession is won
by a foreign company that technologically lags behind the Western
countries, cannot have good concession projects, because corruption
and protectionism are observed here. If we also take into account the
instability of Armenia’s integration preferences and the uncertainty
of the economic situation caused by the sanctions against Russia, it
will finally become clear that one should not expect big investments
in Armenia in the near future.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIA REORIENTED OR DISORIENTED?

Mirror Spectator
Editorial 10-18

By Edmond Y. Azadian

October 10, 2014 will become an important date for Armenia, since
on that day, two significant events took place, not necessarily
coincidentally. The first event was the signing of the Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU) by President Serge Sargisian in Minsk, and the
second one was the opposition rally at the Republic Square.

Since Armenia broke off negotiations with the European Union in
September 2013, it has been waiting at the door of the Russian-led
Customs Union, which Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan had formed.

Although Armenia was coerced into relinquishing its economic ties
with the European Union, it could not become a founding member of the
Customs Union; instead, Yerevan was kept waiting for 13 more months to
join the Customs Union, with dubious benefits in the prospect. Despite
those intimidating circumstances, the speakers at the opposition
rally recognized that it was an unavoidable act to which Armenian
had to commit itself.

That was the reorientation of Armenia away from Europe and further
into Russia’s embrace.

Armenia’s destiny is locked in place by certain determinants, which
no administration — new or the status quo — can change; the Russian
geostrategic position is one determinant which is forced by historic
relations and geographic proximity. The other determinant is the
economic blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan stifling the country to
compromise its future. A third determinant may be the sending of funds
by Armenia’s citizens abroad to their families in Armenia. That is
in steady decline and one day it may be reduced to catastrophic levels.

The last determining factor is the corruption endemic in all former
Soviet republics and any single country cannot stamp it out it because
the entire region is engulfed in the system.

Mikhail Saakashvili tried to uproot corruption in Georgia while he
was president and today he is a wanted man by the Tbilisi authorities.

Therefore, as unsavory as it may sound, corruption cannot be
controlled, especially in a poor country. This does not mean that the
country should give up hope in fighting corruption. But it means one
thing: that no opposition can deliver it overnight, no matter how
loudly it may claim it can.

Armenia’s foreign policy is reoriented by outside forces, but its
domestic policies could be directed through the interaction of
political forces. That interaction, however, thus far has only led
the country to disorientation.

During the last presidential and parliamentary elections, Sargisian’s
Republican Party was able to decimate the opposition and come out on
top. The election was also approved with reservations by international
observers. The method was all too familiar — an election system
that every previous administration has implemented and perhaps,
every future political force will continue as well.

A case in point is the reappointment of Syunik governor Sourik
Khatchatryan, despite claims he has criminal ties. Similar appointments
were made in Shirak and elsewhere. As long as these kingpins deliver
votes, they can break any law with impunity.

The opposition can rightfully cry wolf and call the current regime
criminal and oligarchic, but how many political assassinations were
committed during Levon Ter-Petrosian’s watch?

The time in office of Robert Kocharian, who is waiting in the wings
to throw his hat in the presidential race, was marred by the massacre
at the parliament, as well as the March 1 killings at Freedom Square.

Both during and after the last elections, many defections took
place in the ranks of Ter-Petrosian’s HAK coalition, weakening it
significantly. But he did not give up hope. He continued courting the
Prosperous Armenia Party and its leader Gagik Zaroukyan, a prominent
oligarch who was in the coalition with Sargisian’s Republican Party.

He gradually shifted towards the opposition and October 10 could
become a victory day for LTP because that day Zaroukyan joined him
on the podium at the opposition rally. He also was able to lure
Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage Party to form the “magnificent” trio
of opposition parties in the parliament. That trio may become the
“magnificent quartet,” if the ARF (Dashnag) party eventually decides
to join. The ruling party has offered ambassadorial posts and other
lucrative position to keep the ARF on a short leash. That is why the
party did not participate in the October 10 rally, where Ter-Petrosian
announced that “we understand and respect their position,” although
during his presidency, he jailed the ARF leadership, harassed their
members and destroyed their publication facilities.

The October 10 rally and the rallies preceding it in the provinces were
well attended and were conducted in an orderly manner. One truth was
proven at the rally, that contrary to claims, there was no tyranny
in Armenia. Otherwise, 10,000 people could not gather in one place
and harangue “the criminal oligarchy” to give up the rule or chant
“we want an Armenia without Sergik.”

The other topics were poverty, corruption, emigration and lawlessness,
which are on the minds of every citizen.

Ter-Petrosian vowed to continue the campaign in an orderly fashion,
based on the constitutional rights of the citizens.

Aram Manukyan provided statistics about the dire situation in the
country and cited the causes which were driving citizens to leave
the country in droves.

The opposition has submitted a list of 12 demands to the government
for reform.

It would benefit the country if a healthy opposition is formed to
fight on political grounds to take over the rule. But the irony in
this case is that one of the presidential candidates is a prominent
oligarch, Gagik Zaroukian, a kind-hearted benefactor with a wrestler’s
demeanor. One could argue why not Zaroukian as president, if a former
wrester, Jesse Ventura, was able to become the governor of Wisconsin?

Recaping the EEU Treaty, there are at least two caveats which will
concern every Armenian, regardless of their political affiliation. One
is economic prospects in joining the Customs Union with Russia. The
former director of Armenia’s Central Bank, Bagrat Asatryan, sees
a 2-3 percent decline in transfers from Russia while Armenia needs
a 10-percent increase in transfers for growth. But a more ominous
concern, according to Asatryan is “In case of a 3-percent economic
growth, no social problems can be solved. Three percent-growth will
even serve as stimulus for emigration. To preserve this situation in
Armenia a 6-8 percent economic growth is necessary. And unfortunately,
there are no prerequisites for the situation to improve in 2015,
2016, and 2017.”

Asatryan mentioned that Armenia’s major partner, Russia, to which we
turn nowadays, will have 0-percent growth, since sanctions will have
a negative impact.

Under the above conditions, it looks like Armenia is linking its
economic fortune to a sinking ship, unless a political development
comes to rectify the situation.

Another caveat is the issue of Karabagh. Kazakhstan’s President
Nazarbayev delayed Armenia’s participation in the treaty, arguing that
Armenia should join the union with its “internationally recognized
boundaries,” excluding Nagorno Karabagh, to satisfy President Aliyev
in Azerbaijan. No such condition hampered Russia’s role questioning
the inclusion of Crimea.

As the treaty is signed by Armenia, there is no explanation whatsoever,
if customs system will be implemented on Armenia–Karabagh border. Only
Mr. Aliyev is elated that if and when Azerbaijan joins the Customs
Union, the signatories may admit Baku with Nagorno Karabagh as part
of its territory.

As we can see the problems are way above the power of any party to
resolve. Unity and concerted efforts by the ruling party and opposition
may yield some results. Otherwise, no one can safely identify Armenia’s
course, whether its reorienting or disorienting.

From: A. Papazian

MEDIA BUS TOUR TO KICK OFF FOR TURKEY-ARMENIA NORMALIZATION

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Oct 12 2014

October 12, 2014, Sunday/ 00:00:00/ OSMAN UNALAN / ISTANBUL

The Eurasia Partnership Foundation’s Media Bus Tour is slated to start
Monday, Oct. 13, as a project within the “Support to the Armenia-Turkey
Normalization Process” program and will feature the participation
of filmmakers, bloggers and print, video and photo journalists from
Armenia and Turkey.

The program is being implemented by a consortium of eight civil society
organizations from Armenia and Turkey with financial assistance from
the European Union under the Instrument for Stability (IfS).

The current tour will take place between Oct. 13 and 26, in Turkey and
Armenia. Up to 10 journalists each from both Armenia and Turkey will
be able to participate in the tour. Journalists will come together
in Ýstanbul to start the tour and will travel to different parts of
Turkey, including Ýstanbul, Ýzmir, Fethiye, Antalya, Cappadocia and
Ankara, as well as Armenia, including Dilijan, Yerevan, Lake Sevan,
Sisian and Garni.

Participants will prepare videos, interviews and articles to be
published by their home media outlets and on social networks. The
purpose of the tour is to provide an opportunity for journalists
and bloggers from Armenia and Turkey to explore the neighboring
countries and rediscover their own country. This way, participants
hope to learn about one another and establish professional connections
between media professionals from the two countries.

Armenian member organizations of the consortium include the Civilitas
Foundation (CF), the Eurasia Partnership Foundation (EPF), the Public
Journalism Club (PJC) and the Regional Studies Center (RSC); Turkish
member groups include Anadolu Kultur, the Economic Policy Research
Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), the Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly (hCa),
and the Hrant Dink Foundation.

The very first Media Bus Tour was implemented by the Media Initiatives
Center (formerly Internews-Armenia) in the summer of 2011. The second
tour was held between May 24 and June 6, 2012, and that year the
EPF organized a tour for a group of 18 journalists and bloggers from
Armenia and Turkey.

The group traveled around Turkey and Armenia; visited historic and
cultural sites; met representatives of the government, civil society,
media, academia and think tanks; and heard varying perspectives on
Armenia-Turkey normalization.

The bus tour offered a unique opportunity for the participating
journalists and bloggers to establish human and professional
connections among each other, to re-explore their own country, to
learn about the neighboring country and to better comprehend the
hurdles and nuances associated with the Armenia-Turkey dialogue by
meeting people on the ground.

This year’s tour will introduce the participants to the culturally,
politically and socially important stakeholders of the other country in
addition to the activities of the other members of the consortium and
of EU activities in Turkey and Armenia. The tour is aimed at providing
an environment that promotes dialogue based on sharing and debate.

At the end of the tour, it is hoped that the Turkish and Armenian
participating media professionals and their media organizations will
have developed human and professional connections. All participating
media professionals will publish print or video reports through their
respective media outlets or social networks.

‘Support to the Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process’

The overall objective of the Support to the “Armenia-Turkey
Normalization Process” program is to promote civil society efforts
towards the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
and towards an open border. The program does so by enhancing
person-to-person contact, expanding economic and business links,
promoting cultural and educational activities and facilitating access
to balanced information in both societies.

In a statement on April 23, 2014, then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdoðan extended condolences to the grandchildren of Armenians who
were killed in 1915. Erdoðan’s surprising statement came just one day
before April 24, when Armenians commemorate the events they describe
as genocide.

Then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoðlu said at a reception on April 24
that the prime minister’s statement had not been issued under pressure
from anyone and that it should be seen as a “call” to Armenians.

Stressing that Turkey is attempting to share the pain of Armenians,
Davutoðlu expressed his hope that Armenians would respond positively
to the prime minister’s call so that Turks and Armenians can build
a future and make history together.

Speaking to journalists at the same reception Erdoðan said that
without a solution to some issues, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh
dispute, Turkey will not consider opening the borders.

Diplomatic efforts to find a lasting solution to the conflict have
failed for the past 20 years. After Armenia occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s, including Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with
Azerbaijan.

From: A. Papazian

RUSSIAN ECONOMY SLUMP TO CUT DOWN TRANSFERS TO ARMENIA – ECONOMISTS

11:24 * 14.10.14

The economic risks Armenia may face after joining the Eurasian Union
will be contingent upon the possible slowdown in Russia’s economy,
which in turn will cut down the money transfers, according to a
parliament member responsible for economic issues.

Gagik Minasyan, the head of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee
on Financial-Credit and Budgetary Affairs, says he finds such a
slowdown predictable against the backdrop of the globally observed
decline in the oil prices.

“Those countries, as a rule, have their own security cushion which
they pile up over the course of years to combat such challanges. From
that point of view, it applies to both Azerbaijan and Russia,” he
told Tert.am

Analysts cite both economic and political developments as reasons
behind the observed decline, pointing out particularly to the
increasing export volumes from Saudi Arabia and the higher reliance
on domestic resources in the United States. Minasyan said he finds
that the observed trends fall within the logic of the global conflict
Ukraine faces today. “I don’t rule out the possibility that we will
see the oil prices drop up to 80% until the Ukraine conflict is over,”
he noted.

As for the reduced transfers from Russia, he said it is an inevitable
aftermath of the economic slowdown. “The question has to do with
the transfer volumes. If they are too big, it can in a way affect
our effective demand, but the volumes largely depend on the economic
activity on the Russian market. If the conflict deepens, two scenarios
will be possible. Either Russia will wish to finance its economy
from domestic reserves to secure economic growth (and the transfers
will not essentially reduce in that case) or, if it isn’t able to
implement that, the cutdown of transfers will be essential and will
affect our effective demand,” he explained.

Addressing the problem, economist Vardan Bostanjyan agreed that the
reduced transfers and the new Dollar exchange rates may negatively
impact Armenia’s economy. “I don’t think we recorded considerable
success in the economy in 2014. So I forecast a sadder scenario
against the backdrop of these negative impacts too,” he said.

But the economist added that he nonetheless expects the positive
outcome to be greater and more essential. “I am inclined to think that
those extremely important factors will be on a higher level than they
have been to date. And that in turn will have its positive impact in
terms of putting our economy on the right track and ensuring a real
development,” he said.

Noting that all the oil trading organizations also have their functions
on the territory of Armenia, Bostanjyan said he thinks that the
positive factors will have their direct impact on the country.

“Naturally, the difficulties they may face will be automatically
projected on Armenia. But because Armenia is only partially reliant on
them, I don’t want to think that the negative impact will be great,”
he added.

As for the risks of Eurasian integration, Bostanjyan said he doesn’t
find that any other scenario could absolutely rule them out. He said
Armenia’s economic risks are high even without the membership in the
Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). “We have great risks as it is, so our
integration into the EEU has to reduce them at least bit,” he said.

Armenian News – Tert.am

From: A. Papazian

HEAD OF THE ARF ARMENIAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE OF EUROPE AWARDED MKHITAR GOSH MEDAL

11:15, 14 Oct 2014

President Serzh Sargsyan today received the Director of the ARF
Armenian National Committee of Europe Gaspar Karapetyan (Greece).

The Armenian President handed the RA high state decoration, the
Medal of Mkhitar Gosh, to Gaspar Karapetyan for his outstanding
pro-Armenian activities. The medal had been awarded to him on the
occasion of Independence Day.

The president congratulated Gaspar Karapetyan and wished him further
success.

From: A. Papazian