Author: Andres-Papazian

Courrier International
30 Octobre 2014

La marche turque de Fatih Akin

par Jan Schulz-Ojala, Der Tagesspiegel (Berlin)

Les 7 et 8 novembre, le réalisateur allemand sera l’invité du Forum
des images, à Paris. AvecThe Cut, il s’attaque à un sujet qui n’en
finit pasde résonner dans l’actualité : le génocide arménien.

Près de cent ans se sont écoulés depuis le génocide perpétré contre
les Arméniens par l’Empire ottoman, que The Cut prend comme point de
départ pour raconter l’extermination presque totale d’une famille.

Ce film, le plus ambitieux et le plus coûteux de Fatih Akin [cinéaste
allemand d’origine turque], baigne pourtant dans l’actualité. Dans
l’esprit du spectateur, des scènes vues dans les journaux télévisés ne
cessent de se superposer aux images de ce panorama historique,
semblant interroger la pertinence, au regard de l’horreur du réel,
d’une reconstitution si minutieuse d’événements et d’émotions passés.

A quel point les violentes attaques de l’armée terroriste
internationale de l’Etat islamique contre les communautés chrétiennes
d’Irak reproduisent-elles, du moins sur le fond, le génocide qui a
coûté la vie à près d’un million et demi d’Arméniens chrétiens entre
1915 et 1916 ?

La relance de la guerre qui oppose la Turquie à sa minorité kurde, les
images de la ville syrienne de Kobané détruite par les tirs
d’artillerie, les gigantesques camps de réfugiés installés dans le
désert en Jordanie et en Turquie près de la frontière irakienne : ces
catastrophes causées par l’homme modifient puissamment le regard qu’on
porte sur ce film, qui appelle, avec une ampleur et une tranquillité
épiques, à adopter une posture humaniste, à faire le bien dans un
monde fondamentalement mauvais. Odyssée. La création de The Cut
elle-même a une dimension historique et politique qui dépasse
largement ce film. Fatih Akin voulait à l’origine tourner un
long-métrage sur Hrant Dink, ce Turc d’origine arménienne, directeur
de l’hebdomadaire Agos, qui a été abattu en 2007 par un jeune
nationaliste de 16 ans.

Il a travaillé à ce projet pendant deux ou trois brèves années après
L’Engrenage, son premier film (1998), mais n’a jamais trouvé aucun
acteur turc qui ait accepté de jouer ce rôle, comme il l’a souvent
relaté. Comment en effet incarner un homme qui avait été régulièrement
traîné devant les tribunaux en raison de ses appels à reconnaître le
génocide, dans un Etat où le terme reste tabou, et aux funérailles
duquel le Premier ministre Tayyip Erdogan avait refusé d’assister,
préférant aller inaugurer un tunnel autoroutier ?

Il a donc fallu attendre cinq ans après la comédie Soul Kitchen pour
que Fatih Akin puisse mettre fin à sa trilogie, courageusement
intitulée “L’amour, la mort et le diable”. Les films qui la composent
traitent de thèmes très différents mais sont unis par une même énergie
passionn̩e et le leitmotiv de la migration. Si Contre le mur РOurs
d’or au Festival de Berlin – évoquait une sexualité et un amour
libérés des conventions turques et familiales, en 2007 De l’autre côté
– prix du scénario à Cannes – dressait un panorama familial et
générationnel subtil entre l’Allemagne et la Turquie. A sa sortie,
Fatih Akin avait annoncé son film sur le diable en ces termes : “Je
veux raconter l’histoire d’une immigration ultime !” Cette histoire
d’immigration est finalement devenue The Cut.

Un exode individuel qui mène le forgeron arménien Nazaret [l’acteur
français Tahar Rahim] de sa ville natale de Mardin, près de la
frontière syrienne, dans la Turquie actuelle, à Alep, puis au Liban, à
Cuba, en Floride, à Minneapolis et enfin dans l’hiver glacé du Dakota
du Nord. Au début du film, ce père de famille vit paisiblement avec sa
femme Rakel (Hindi Zahra) et leurs deux petites filles quand les
soldats turcs l’embarquent pour aller casser des pierres. Un jour, les
détenus sont attachés les uns aux autres et massacrés à l’arme
blanche. Nazaret en réchappe : le soldat qui s’occupe de lui a des
scrupules et se contente de lui donner un coup de couteau dans le cou
[au lieu de lui couper la gorge].

Nazaret perd la voix mais pas la vie. Il part à la recherche de ses
filles et son odyssée se termine par des retrouvailles familiales qui
comptent parmi les plus tristes de toute l’histoire du cinéma. Après
la première de The Cut, à la Mostra de Venise, les critiques ont fusé
: les Arméniens parlent un anglais bizarre, le film est démodé, c’est
un drame expressionniste surchargé, simpliste, voire naïf. Ces
reproches sont peut-être justifiés.

Il est vrai que le film manque de personnages complexes et donc riches
sur un plan dramatique : les Arméniens sont bienveillants, les Turcs,
et plus tard les Yankees, en général de sales types.The Cut ne possède
ni la sauvagerie de Contre le mur ni la complexité scénaristique deDe
l’autre côté. Cela ne devrait cependant pas constituer un inconvénient
pour ce “film de contrebandiers”, pour reprendre les termes d’Akin,
qui est aussi destiné au public turc.

Enfer terrestre. C’est justement la modestie de son doux héros Nazaret
(ce n’est pas un hasard si le nom rappelle Jésus de Nazareth) qui
donne au film sa force considérable. En cent trente-huit minutes, le
long-métrage nous mène d’un monde des mille et une nuits à l’univers
de vagabonds d’un Jack London. Il regorge de scènes qui semblent se
dérouler dans un enfer terrestre intemporel.

La plus forte : un gigantesque camp dans le désert, des tentes en
lambeaux, des Arméniens à moitié nus, affamés, tout est couleur de
sable, livide ; une femme famélique supplie Nazaret de la tuer. Après
une hésitation déchirante, il le fait. Il maudit Dieu et arrache la
croix qu’il porte au poignet. Certains accusent The Cut d’esthétiser
l’horreur, mais ce reproche moralisateur n’est pertinent qu’en partie.

Akin cherche à faire naître une émotion authentique à partir d’une
image nécessairement arrangée. Il faut pour cela que le spectateur
soit embarqué aux côtés du héros et peut-être qu’il prête une
attention particulière à l’humanité que le réalisateur confère à son
récit malgré un contexte historique controversé – réussissant par là
même à échapper à tout parti pris. The Cut ne parle pas de vengeance
mais de quête. De ce que l’on peut sauver dans un monde assoiffé de
vengeance. Ce film facilement attaquable est sorti à la mi-octobre en
Allemagne avec 100 copies. Il risque bien de faire naufrage. Fatih
Akin, le petit jeune sympa des cinémas allemand et turc qui a
maintenant 41 ans, ne le mériterait pas.

Il est plus passionnant de se demander si The Cut sortira vraiment
dans les salles turques le 5 décembre. Sur Twitter, des menaces de
mort annoncent que la “casquette blanche” est déjà prête – une
allusion directe au meurtre de Hrant Dink [c’était le couvre-chef que
portait l’assassin]. Le fait qu’une date de sortie ait été fixée est
pourtant un signe que la Turquie bouge, qu’elle va de l’avant malgré
tout.

-Jan Schulz-Ojala

From: A. Papazian

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Nov 2 2014

Real solutions needed

by GÃ`NAL KURÅ?UN

November 02, 2014, Sunday

I have asked myself this question several times: Does this government
want real solutions to the many issues Turkey has? We can ask this
question regarding a number of prominent and well-known problems, such
as the Kurdish issue, Cyprus, the Armenian genocide — as well as
other issues we consider domestic affairs. My answer is limited to
what I see, particularly the actions and reactions of the government
to these issues.

In my opinion, the strategy this government has decided on, up until
the 2015 elections, is to not really act, but to be seen as taking all
necessary actions. At every point, they do not take the necessary
steps, but they like it to appear as if they will take steps soon. In
the Kurdish issue, we have been waiting for Godot to come for the last
three years, as very limited steps forward were taken by the
government that affect ordinary people’s lives. They opened up a
Kurdish language and literature department at Mardin Artuklu
University which allows 20-25 students every year, and whenever there
has been a demand for Kurdish language education in the last three
years, they show this department as an example. If I was a Kurdish
father, I would want my children to have Turkish and English lessons
from the first grade or even before, in order to use it to earn money,
but I would also want them to attend Kurdish classes at the same level
in order to know their culture and mother tongue. This issue, to which
the real solution would not be the end of the world, still remains
unsolved. Kurdish language education will not divide Turkey, and it
has no relationship to unity in the country, but the government has
shown no signs of positive steps recently, which leads to harsh
criticism and sometimes wild protests.

In Cyprus, where we were expecting several steps from both sides, an
energy crisis occurred, and we are at a point where it looks as if it
is not strategic for either side to come to a solution. Sometimes
problems help to fortify the positions of the two sides, as no real
solutions are needed in order to save the day. Why should the Greek
part unite with the poor north, as they have become an EU member
already? Why should the Turkish side beg the Greeks, since they can
enjoy power, even if it is isolated? If the solution is not strategic
and beneficial for the day, both sides may choose not to solve it.

The Armenian genocide issue is another pathetic problem for Turkey to
confront. During football diplomacy days, we were very optimistic
about a possible solution, particularly on giving up the denial policy
and sending apologies and condolences. I’m not so sure that everybody
supports this solution in Turkey for today, after 100 years of the
denial policy. If the border opens with Armenia, if the limited
diplomatic pressure on Turkey is removed, will it be that beneficial,
if it means losing nationalist votes? We come upon another game theory
at this stage, which deserves another column from me in the coming
days.

On the control of mines, the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
government enacted an important law, namely Law No. 6331, the Work
Health and Security Law, in 2012. Most of the vital provisions of this
law are postponed until 2016. They’ve made a specific regulation on
safety in mines, which was published on Sept. 24, to enter into force
after one year. In 2014, up until today, we’ve lost more than 400
workers in accidents in mines which have poor safety conditions.
Statistically, there were 27,374 mine inspections made by state
officials in 2005, whereas there were only 8,854 inspections in 2013.
There were 54 closures and TL 379,000 in fines for mines that didn’t
fulfill the requirements of the mining law (Law No. 3213), whereas we
see seven closures and TL 30,000 in fines in 2014.

Minister of Labor Faruk Çelik confessed this yesterday in an exhausted
manner, saying, `Whenever we close a mine, at least 50 people call to
reopen it.’ Can you still defend the idea that we want real solutions?

From: A. Papazian

Arabian Gazette
November 1, 2014 Saturday

Azerbaijan and Turkey’s Shared Dream: TANAP, the Project of the 21st Century

by: Harun Yahya

Harun Yahya opines that mega projects like TANAP, apart from bringing
in huge financial benefits will play an important role in bringing
peace and well-being to the region.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz signing on The Southern Gas
Corridor pipeline at a function on 23 September 2014 in Baku,
Azerbaijan. Photo courtesy-Daily Sabah

The Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline project (TANAP), described in
person by senior members of the Azeri state as the `project of the
century’, has not achieved the recognition it deserves among the
Turkish public, despite causing great excitement among those familiar
with the subject. This plan for natural gas reserves from Azerbaijan’s
Caspian shores in Central Asia to be sent to Europe via Anatolia – in
which Turkey will also be a recipient – will be much discussed in the
years ahead. In fact, this project is the first step in the Southern
Gas Corridor Project planned between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Even in
this form, the project is thought to be capable of fundamentally
altering balances both far and near, while when the entire project
goes into operation it will likely have a dramatic impact on the
entire region.

Turkey currently obtains a large part of its natural gas requirements
from its northern neighbor Russia. It is therefore justly proud in
taking part in a new that will diversify that supply model, lower
costs and, most importantly, allow Turkey’s voice to be heard in the
supply chain. The agreement for this project, signed last September on
behalf of Azerbaijan and Turkey in Baku by Azeri head of state Aliyev
and Turkish Foreign Minister DavutoÄ?lu was one which had long been
prepared beforehand and one for which financing had been arranged and
the implementation of which was of great importance to both parties.

The dream of existing natural gas reserves from Azerbaijan’s Caspian
shores being carried to Europe via Turkey is not something of concern
to Azerbaijan and Turkey alone. Of course Turkey intends to diversify
its natural gas supplies and reduce its dependence on Russia, but
there are countries that need this maybe even more than Turkey does.
These are of course the countries of Europe, whose dependence on
Russia will decline once the projects are implemented in their
entirety.

Even if they encounter no problems in purchasing natural gas, European
countries still support the idea of an alternative route to Russia,
which has no qualms about using natural gas as a trump card in its
international relations. TANAP, which is important for Turkey and for
Europe, will take its place in the Southern Gas Corridor. The Southern
Gas Corridor project is intended to improve the variety of supply in
bringing Caspian, central Asian and Middle Eastern natural gas
resources to Europe. Turkey and Azerbaijan have agreed on the Turkish
leg of the corridor. TANAP involves the building of a 2,000-km
pipeline and a transportation capacity of 32 billion cubic meters of
gas. Six billion cubic meters of gas will reach Turkey within the
framework of the project in 2018. The ultimate goal is to carry 10
billion cubic meters to Europe by the same route as of 2019.

The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the most complex gas value chains
ever developed in the world. Stretching over 3,500 kilometres,
crossing seven countries and involving more than a dozen major energy
companies, it is comprised of several separate energy projects
representing a total investment of approximately US$45 billion. Image
courtesy-TAP

One of the main features of this natural gas corridor is that in
contrast to other pipelines, it all runs through secure territory,
namely Turkey. In addition, both Azerbaijan and Turkey can easily meet
the approximately $18 billion financing required by the project.
Economic integration between the two countries is increasing by the
day and is one of the reasons for the growing belief that the project
will be completed. A few decades ago, Azerbaijan was on the same
economic level as Armenia, but it is now a very different country.
With its accumulated capital it now has important investments in
Turkey, such as PETKIM.

Another important aspect of the project from Turkey’s point of view is
the development of relations to allow other regional countries with
reserves on the Caspian as well as Azerbaijan to join in: Iran,
another important regional country, looks favorably on the project.

Integration of the reserves belonging to the Iraqi Kurdistan regional
administration, our northern neighbor, which is admittedly going
through some troubles at the moment, will also add to the
significance of the TANAP project many times over. This will be a
vital step that will genuinely accelerate prosperity in the region,
currently known mainly for blood and tears, and speed up economic and
political integration with Turkey.

This exciting pipeline to be built under Turkish leadership will not
only raise the well-being of the countries in question, but will also
bring peace and brotherhood between these countries and their people;
such projects must therefore not only be regarded as mega- projects
bringing in huge financial revenues. TANAP will play an important role
in bringing peace and well-being to the region. It will establish
shared values, union and brotherhood between societies and will
certainly accelerate integration.

This project will perhaps be the most concrete manifestation of Turkey
and Azerbaijan’s idea of one nation, two countries.

From: A. Papazian

PRESS RELEASE
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF ARMENIA
Diana Manukyan, AUA PR Coordinator
40 Baghramyan Ave.
Yerevan 0019, Republic of Armenia
Email: [email protected]
Web:
Facebook

*Words of Wisdom: AUA Holds Inspirational Talk with Mihran S. Agbabian and
Vartan Gregorian*

YEREVAN, Armenia – On October 14, 2014, the American University of Armenia
(AUA) hosted a talk, titled `Conversation with Two Great Men of Education:
Mihran S. Agbabian and Vartan Gregorian.’ The event was moderated by AUA
President Dr. Armen Der Kiureghian, who asked them questions about their
lives, careers, and the future of AUA.

Mihran Agbabian was born in Cyprus. He is President Emeritus of AUA and
Professor Emeritus of Engineering at the University of Southern California
(USC). He headed his own consulting engineering firm, Agbabian Associates,
for 20 years before joining USC as Chairman of the Civil and Environmental
Engineering Department. He received his M.S. in Engineering from the
California Institute of Technology in 1948 and his Ph.D. in Engineering
from the University of California, Berkeley in 1951.

Vartan Gregorian is the twelfth president of the Carnegie Corporation of
New York. Prior to that, he served as president of Brown University from
1989-1997, president of The New York Public Library from 1981-1989, and
Tarzian Professor of History, Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and
Provost of the University of Pennsylvania from 1972-1981. He received his
Ph.D. in History and Humanities from Stanford University in 1964 and is the
author of three books: *The Road to Home: My Life and Times, Islam: A
Mosaic, Not a Monolith, *and *The Emergence of Modern Afghanistan,
1880-1946*. He was born in Iran.

The packed audience at AUA’s Manoogian Hall listened on as Mr. Agbabian and
Mr. Gregorian told stories of their successes, their failures and their
experiences as foreigners in the United States. When talking about his
achievements, Mr. Gregorian stated, `Throughout my life, I’ve always done
the unexpected.’ The audience, in particular, was very inspired when he
stated, `I have never applied to a job, never been fired from a job, and
never signed a contract for a job. My work is my contract.’ Aregnaz
Harutyunyan, a student in AUA’s English & Communications program, remarked,
`It was very motivational.’

Mr. Agbabian, one of the founding members of AUA, cited the American
University of Beirut (AUB) as an inspiration to him when he was originally
planning on establishing a university in Armenia. When speaking about ideas
for the future of AUA, he stated `One option is to become an international
university like AUB. The other option is to strengthen the program and
prepare the students for leadership. If that is achieved, then I think
we’ve done our job.’ Overall, Mr. Agbabian’s impressions of AUA – which
started as just an idea and has now turned into a highly-praised
institution – are positive. `What I see, I love. It’s wonderful,’ he said.

Mr. Gregorian offered his advice as well when he stated, `Armenia owes a
lot of gratitude to the Armenian diaspora, especially the Americans. But
Armenia cannot just receive. There are many millionaires and billionaires
in this country. Wealth that has been created in this country should be
reinvested in this country. The youth is our future, and what we need to do
is make young Armenians independent.’

The evening concluded with a standing ovation from the crowd.

*The American University of Armenia (AUA) is a private, independent
university located in **Yerevan* *, *
*Armenia* *. Founded in 1991, AUA is
affiliated with the University of California. Through teaching, research,
and public service, AUA serves Armenia and the region by supplying
high-quality, graduate and undergraduate education, encouraging civic
engagement, and promoting democratic values.*

From: A. Papazian

PRESS RELEASE
Eastern Prelacy of the Armenian Apost. Church of America and Canada
H.E. Archbishop Oshagan Choloyan
Prelate, Easter Prelacy and Canada
138 East 39th Street
New York, NY 10016
Tel: 212-689-7810
Fax: 212-689-7168
Web:

October 30, 2014

PRELATE OF ALEPPO VISITS EASTERN PRELACY

Archbishop Shahan Sarkissian, Prelate of Aleppo, met last week with
parishes of the Eastern Prelacy. His Eminence has been visiting
Armenian communities across the United States to brief the community
about the Syrian crisis
and the current state of the Syrian Armenian community. All
contributions received are being allocated to the Armenian schools in
Aleppo and other areas.

The history of Armenians in Syria goes back to the 11th century, but
it was the survivors of the 1915 Genocide that established the
community that became the premiere community of the Diaspora.

As we reported last week, on Wednesday, October 22, the Archbishop,
accompanied by Archbishop Oshagan Choloyan, visited the community of
St. Stephen’s Church in Watertown, Massachusetts. A public gathering
took place in the evening hosted by the Armenian Relief Society. Here
are some subsequent visits made by Archbishop Shahan:

Philadelphia, October 23

Archbishop Shahan and Archbishop Oshagan, accompanied by Archpriest
Fr. Nerses Manoogian, pastor of St. Gregory Church, gathered at the
home of Mr. and Mrs. Sam and Nellie Nalbandian of Huntington Valley,
Pennsylvania, for a
reception to raise funds to help keep the Armenian schools open in
Aleppo.
Speaking about the general situation in Aleppo as well as other
cities, Archbishop Shahan said that `although we live in difficult
times, we never lose hope. We are without water and electricity, but
hope is very much alive in us.’

Douglaston, October 24

A public briefing took place at St. Sarkis Church in Douglaston, New
York on Friday evening, October 24. Rev. Fr. Nareg Terterian, pastor
of St. Sarkis, welcomed the Archbishop assuring him of the support of
the Armenian American community. The Prelate of Aleppo spoke softly
and plainly, but eloquently, about the Syrian Armenian community and
the community’s determination to remain in Syria. He described how
every effort is being made to
keep the schools open and functioning so that the young people will
not be
deprived of an education. He noted that in some areas schools were
consolidated in safer areas.

Ridgefield, October 25 and 26

On Saturday evening, a public briefing took place at Sts. Vartanantz
Church in Ridgefield, New Jersey, where once again Archbishop Shahan
introduced several videos vividly showing the current situation in
Syria. Rev. Fr. Hovnan Bozoian and the Board of Trustees hosted the
event that brought together many members of the community. On Sunday,
His Eminence celebrated the Divine Liturgy and delivered a sermon on
the occasion of the Feast of the Discovery of the Holy
Cross. Following the Liturgy, Archbishop Shahan spoke to a gathering
of parishioners about the general situation and introduced the videos
that were shown. The Aleppo Prelate answered questions from the
audience.

Woodside, October 27

On Monday evening, Archbishop Shahan once again presented his briefing
to a gathering at the Armenian Center in Woodside, New York, sponsored
by St. Illuminator’s Cathedral and the ARF Armen Garo Gomideh. Opening
remarks were offered by Rev. Fr. Mesrob Lakissian. As he did at each
of the events, the Prelate, Archbishop Oshagan, concluded the
gathering with his words of encouragement and appealed to the
community to continue supporting the Syrian Armenian community with
prayers and financial assistance.

On Tuesday, October 28, Archbishop Shahan departed for Canada where he
is continuing his public briefings and appeals.

A fundraising reception at the home of Mr. and Mrs. Sam Nalbandian was
attended by many from the Philadelphia area.

The clergy are surrounded by parishioners and friends at St. Sarkis
Church in Douglaston, New York.

The attendees at a reception at Sts. Vartanantz Church, New Jersey on
Saturday evening.

Archbishop Shahan celebrated the Divine Liturgy in New Jersey.

A briefing and presentation on Sunday after the Liturgy in New Jersey.

The attendees at the public briefing at the Armenian Center in New
York with the clergy.

Archbishop Oshagan and Archbishop Shahan with Salpi Ketchelian, Anna
Mari Manoukian, and Taleen Lakissian who presented $750 to Bishop
Shahan collected by St. Illuminator’s Sunday and Saturday school
students.

SYRIAN ARMENIAN COMMUNITY NEEDS OUR HELP MORE THAN EVER

The crisis in Syria requires our financial assistance.

Please keep this community in your prayers, your hearts, and your
pocketbooks.

PLEASE DO NOT FORGET OUR ONGOING RELIEF EFFORTS FOR THE ARMENIAN
COMMUNITY
IN SYRIA WHERE CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT.

THE NEED IS REAL.

THE NEED IS GREAT.

DONATIONS TO THE FUND FOR SYRIAN ARMENIAN RELIEF CAN BE MADE ON
LINE. TO DONATE NOW CLICK HERE
() AND SELECT SYRIAN
ARMENIAN RELIEF IN THE MENU. OR IF YOU PREFER YOU MAY MAIL YOUR
DONATION TO:

Armenian Prelacy

138 E. 39th Street

New York, NY 10016

Checks payable to: Fund for Syrian Armenian Relief

Thank you for your help

PRELATE WILL TRAVEL TO ILLINOIS

Archbishop Oshagan will travel to Illinois this weekend where on
Sunday he
will celebrate the Divine Liturgy and deliver the sermon at All Saints
Church in Glenview, on the occasion of the 71st anniversary of the
parish. Following the services His Eminence will preside over an
anniversary banquet at Shahnasarian Hall.

VICAR WILL VISIT SPRINGFIELD

On Sunday, November 2, Bishop Anoushavan will celebrate the Divine
Liturgy
and deliver the sermon at St. Gregory Church, of Springfield & Indian
Orchard, Massachusetts. During the service His Grace will ordain
Stephen Michael Sherokey to the diaconate and consecrate an icon of
Saint Sarkis the Warrior. The Vicar will preside at the banquet that
will follow the liturgical services.

VICAR VISITS RACINE AND WAUKEGAN

Last weekend Bishop Anoushavan visited St. Hagop Church in Racine,
Wisconsin, and St. Paul Church in Waukegan, Illinois.

On Saturday evening the Vicar met with the leadership and parishioners
of St. Paul Church in Waukegan that also included the blessing of a
recently installed church sign in the front of the church, and
concluded with a moving and uplifting candlelight service.

On Sunday His Grace celebrated the Divine Liturgy and delivered the
sermon
at St. Hagop Church in Racine. During the services, His Grace granted
the right to wear stoles to altar servers, Vahan Mahdasian and Arakel
Khaligian. The Vicar also read the encyclical from His Holiness Aram
I, Catholicos of the Holy See of Cilicia, elevating Rev. Fr. Daron
Stepanian, pastor of St. Hagop, to the rank of Archpriest. A dinner
celebration of the 76th anniversary of the parish took place after the
services. On behalf of the pastor and the board of trustees, Bishop
Anoushavan presented a Certificate of Merit to Archdeacon Dikran
Mahdasian for fifty years of service to St. Hagop. In his comments,
Der Daron congratulated the parish on its 76 years of religious and
national leadership and expressed thanks to the Prelate, Archbishop
Oshagan, and the Vicar, Bishop Anoushavan, for their fatherly guidance
and for the honor of being elevated to the rank of Archpriest.

Bishop Anoushavan and Archpriest Fr. Daron with members of the
St. Paul Church community.

Following the Liturgy at St. Hagop Church, the Vicar and Der Hayr with
the
altar servers and parishioners.

Bishop Anoushavan reads the pontifical encyclical elevating Der Daron
to rank of Archpriest.

CAMECT REPRESENTATIVES MEET AT PRELACY

Representatives of Christian and Arab Middle Eastern Churches Together
(CAMECT) met on Tuesday, October 28, at the Prelacy offices in New
York City. CAMECT is comprised of faith communities in the United
States who belong to
or are associated with churches in the Middle East. The organization
meets
at least twice a year to discuss the current situation and to deepen
the bonds of fellowship, awareness, respect and love for one another.

Archbishop Oshagan is the chairman of CAMECT that includes
representatives
of the following churches with roots in the Middle East: Antiochian
Orthodox Christian Archdiocese of North America; Armenian Orthodox
Church; Armenian Catholic Church; Armenian Evangelical Church;
Assyrian Church of the East; Chaldean Catholic Church; Coptic Orthodox
Church; Evangelical Lutheran Church in America; Maronite Catholic
Church; Melkite Greek Catholic Church; Presbyterian Church; Syriac
Orthodox Church of Antioch; Syriac Catholic Church of Antioch.

Archbishop Oshagan said, `The presence of Christianity in the Middle
East is a deep-rooted reality. For fourteen centuries Christians have
coexisted and cohabited with the Arab people who always regarded the
Christian people as the indigenous people of the Book and encouraged
and protected the Christian presence and rights. The Christian
leadership in the Middle East stands firm in its determination to
maintain the Christian presence in the Middle East and to help the
people remain in the countries they consider their home.’

A meeting of CAMECT representatives took place at the Prelacy on
Tuesday, October 28.

HALLOWEEN PARTY IN PHILLY

St. Gregory Church, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, held its annual Sunday
School Halloween Party last Sunday. More than 60 students joined in
the festivities of the day, which included lessons about the Discovery
of the Holy Cross and the origins of Halloween; they marched in the
Parade of Saints, danced to music, played games, made caramel apples,
engaged in a group competitive Scripturally-based modified
Jeopardy/Wheel of Fortune/Hangman tournament, feasted at an
overflowing table of kids’ favorite delectable foods, and took home
goodie bags to enjoy later that night. Serving in various capacities,
the junior and senior high students fulfilled their stewardship
responsibilities in this their first Day of Stewardship, where they
learn to give back to the church. It was a fun-filled, action-packed
day that everyone enjoyed.

The day began with lessons on the Feast of the Discovery of the Holy
Cross
that was being celebrated that day.

The Halloween table was filled with treats, plus `goodie bags’ to take
home.

FOOD FESTIVALS AND BAZAARS

Whatever we call it-Bazaar, Food Festival, Fall Fair, or Holiday
Fair-it is the beginning of the season that our parishes present their
annual event that for most parishes is a major part of their annual
income. St. Gregory Church, North Andover, Massachusetts hosted their
annual Fall Fair last weekend.

At the pastry table in North Andover are, from left, Christine
Kourkounian, chair of the Board of Trustees, Susan Kulungian, and
Melanie Tokatlian.

Rev. Stephan Baljian, pastor of St. Gregory is joined at the Fall Fair
by his parents, Archpriest Fr. Antranig Baljian and Yeretzkin Cheryl.

BIBLE READINGS

Bible readings for Sunday, November 2, Eighth Sunday of the Exaltation
of the Holy Cross, are: Isaiah 22:15-25; Ephesians 1:1-14; Luke
8:17-21.

Paul, an apostle of Christ Jesus by the will of God, To the saints who
are
in Ephesus and are faithful to Christ Jesus: Grace to you and peace
from God our Father and the Lord Jesus Christ.

Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who has
blessed us
in Christ with every spiritual blessing in the heavenly places, just
as he
chose us in Christ before the foundation of the world to be holy and
blameless before him in love. He destined us for adoption as his
children through Jesus Christ, according to the good pleasure of his
will, to the praise of his glorious grace that he freely bestowed on
us in the Beloved. In him we have redemption through his blood, the
forgiveness of our trespasses, according to the riches of his grace
that he lavished on us. With all wisdom and insight he has made known
to us the mystery of his will, according to his good pleasure that he
set forth in Christ, as a plan for the fullness of time, to gather up
all things in him, things in heaven and things on earth.
In Christ we have also obtained an inheritance, having been destined
according to the purpose of him who accomplishes all things according
to his counsel and will, so that we, who were the first to set our
hope on Christ, might live for the praise of his glory. In him you
also, when you had heard the word of truth, the gospel of your
salvation, and had believed in him, were marked with the seal of the
promised Holy Spirit; this is the pledge of our inheritance toward
redemption as God’s own people, to the praise of his glory. (Ephesians
1:1-14)

For a listing of the coming week’s Bible readings click here
().

ST. JOHN CHRYSOSTOM

Today, October 30, the Armenian Church remembers St. John Chrysostom
(Hovhan Voskeperan), a notable Christian bishop and preacher in Syria
and Constantinople. He is famous for his eloquence-Chrysostom means
`golden mouth.’ The Orthodox Church honors him as a saint and one of
the `three holy hierarchs’ (along with Basil the Great and
Gregory the Theologian). He is also recognized and honored by the
Catholic
Church and the Church of England.

John converted to Christianity in 368 when he was barely 21 years
old. He renounced a large inheritance and promising legal career and
went to live in a mountain cave where he studied the Bible. He was
later ordained a priest and soon his sermons were attracting huge
audiences. He challenged wealthy Christians, whose generosity was
confined to donating precious objects for display in churches. `The
gift of a chalice may be extravagant in
its generosity,’ he said, `but a gift to the poor is an expression of
love.’

His outspoken criticism was not appreciated by the hierarchy and he
was sent into exile at various times. He had a profound influence on
the doctrines and theology of the Armenian Church because he spent the
final years of his exile in Armenia. Some of his important works have
survived only in Armenian manuscripts.

Muse of the deep and ineffable Divine Mysteries.

Wise Prefect and Great Doctor of the world,

Like the rock of the Church, you were faithful to the key to heaven.

>From the beloved disciple, you received the gospel.

>From the Holy Virgin Birth-giver you received your symbol of
authority.

O Patriarch John, by the grace of the Holy Spirit you received wisdom.

(An Armenian Church ode dedicated to St. John Chrysostom)

FEAST OF ALL SAINTS

This Saturday, November 1, the Armenian Church commemorates the Feast
of All Saints, Old and New, Known and Unknown. The western churches
always celebrate All Saints Day on November 1. In the Armenian Church
tradition the date is variable depending on the season of the
Cross. It can occur in late October or in November. The commemoration
is rooted in the belief that there
are many saints who are not known to us. Therefore, on this day all
saints
are honored.

NEWS FROM THE CATHOLICOSATE

NEW JULFA ARMENIANS MARK 400 YEARS OF HISTORY

His Holiness Aram I, Catholicos of the Holy See of Cilicia, attended a
three-day conference dedicated to the 400 years of Armenians living in
New Julfa that took place at the Ararat Community Hall in Isfahan/New
Julfa. In his opening message, His Holiness congratulated the
organizers for the timely
event and the theme, `New Julfa: Symbol of Conviviality amongst the
Three Monotheistic Religions.’ Also attending the opening were the
Governor and Vice Governor of Isfahan, the Head of Religious Affairs,
the
President of Isfahan University, and Professors from Yerevan
University.

The Catholicos spoke about the rich experience of Armenians, which he
said
has been well documented in the region’s literature. The three day
conference concluded with the celebration of the 350th anniversary of
the Cathedral of Holy Saviour Monastery of New Julfa, in the presence
of the Catholicos, and the Prime Minister of Armenia, Hovik
Abrahamian, who was accompanied by seven government ministers.

As part of the celebrations a conference of scholars took place on
October
21. Dr. Vazken Ghougassian, Executive Director of the Eastern Prelacy
was invited to participate. The topic of his presentation was `The
Social, Administrative and Ecclesiastical Structure of the New Julfa
Armenian Community in the 17th Century.’

The Divine Liturgy on the occasion of the 350th anniversary of the
Cathedral of All Savior’s Monastery (Sourp Armenaprkich) in New
Julfa. The
Cathedral was completed in 1664.

Catholicos Aram officially re-opens the renovated library.

The conference of scholars was attended by high-ranking government
officials, the clergy, and the general public. Dr. Vazken Ghougassian,
Executive Director of the Eastern Prelacy, was one of the presenters.

THIS WEEK IN ARMENIAN HISTORY

Prepared by the Armenian National Education Committee (ANEC)

Armistice of Mudros (October 30, 1918)

The defeat of the Central Powers in World War I triggered the
capitulation
of the Ottoman Empire, which was forced to conclude the Armistice of
Mudros on October 30, 1918, to end the hostilities with the Allies in
the Middle
Eastern theater. The armistice was signed by Ottoman Navy Minister
Rauf Bey and British Admiral Somerset Arthur Gough-Calthorpe on board
the British ship Agamemnon in Mudros, a harbor on the Greek island of
Lemnos.

As part of several conditions, the Ottomans surrendered their
remaining garrisons outside Anatolia and granted the Allies the right
to occupy forts controlling the Straits of the Dardanelles and the
Bosporus. Any Ottoman territory could be also occupied by the Allies
in case of a threat to security. The Ottoman army was demobilized.

Armenia had proclaimed its independence on May 28, 1918, but according
to the Treaty of Batum (June 4), its borders had been reduced to an
area surrounding Yerevan, Alexandropol, and lake Sevan of
approximately 12,000 square
kilometers. Armenians anxiously waited for the end of the war, hoping
that
the Allies would fulfill their promises.

Several clauses of the armistice referred to Armenians:

`IV. All Allied prisoners of war and Armenian interned persons and
prisoners to be collected in Constantinople and handed over
unconditionally to the Allies.

XI. Immediate withdrawal of the Turkish troops from Northwest Persia
to the rear of the pre-war frontier has already been ordered and will
be carried
out. Part of Trans-Caucasia has already been ordered to be evacuated
by Turkish troops; the remainder is to be evacuated if required by the
Allies after they have studied the situation there.

XV. Allied Control Officers to be placed on all railways, including
such portions of the Trans-Caucasian Railways as are now under Turkish
control, which must be placed at the free and complete disposal of the
Allied authorities, due consideration being given to the needs of the
population. This clause to include Allied occupation of Batoum. Turkey
will raise no objection
to the occupation of Baku by the Allies.

XVI. Surrender of all garrisons in Hedjaz, Assir, Yemen, Syria, and
Mesopotamia to the nearest Allied Commander; and the withdrawal of
troops from Cilicia, except those necessary to maintain order, as will
be determined under Clause V.

XXIV. In case of disorder in the six Armenian vilayets, the Allies
reserve
to themselves the right to occupy any part of them.

Calthorpe had dictated the conditions of the armistice on behalf of
the Allies without consultation with the other members of the
Entente. Those conditions were discussed during the Peace Conference
of Versailles, opened on January 18, 1919. At the end of January, the
Allied Supreme Council approved a resolution to separate Armenia,
Syria, Palestine, Arabia, and Mesopotamia from the Ottoman Empire.

However, in the future the Allies did not take any serious measure to
execute the clauses of the armistice, which would have favored the
solution of the Armenian Question. The signature of the Treaty of
Sevres in August 1920
was the legal follow-up to the armistice, but it was never ratified
due to
the Turkish victory in the so-called `war of independence.’

Previous entries in `This Week in Armenian History’ can be
read on the Prelacy’s web site ().

FROM THE BOOKSTORE

The Prelacy Bookstore has an extensive collection of books (in
Armenian and English) about the Genocide including histories,
historical novels, memoirs, eye witness testimonies, essays, and
poetry. From now through next April we will feature one or two books
each week from the Bookstore’s collection.

>From Empire to Republic:

Turkish Nationalism and the Armenian Genocide

By Taner Akcam

This book is the first serious scholarly attempt to study the Armenian
Genocide in the context of Turkish political history.

Softcover, $36.00 plus shipping and handling

Hagop: An Armenian Genocide Survivor’s Journey to Freedom

By Theodore D. Kharpertian

This memoir of a survivor, written by his son, recounts the lifelong
struggle and tenacity of Hagop Kharpertian, the only survivor in his
family. It is a story of crime without punishment and the narrative of
a remarkable life.

Softcover, $13.00 plus shipping and handling

To order these books or for information contact the Armenian Prelacy
Bookstore by email ([email protected]) or by phone
(212-689-7810).

PODCAST WITH FATHER NAREG TERTERIAN: EPISODE 9

click the image below to listen to Podcast No. 9 with Rev. Fr. nareg
terterian featuring an interesting interview with Arthur Hayrabedian,
the first chairman of the Borad of St. Sarkis Church.

()

DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME ENDS THIS WEEKEND

We are back to Standard Time as of 2 am Sunday. Don’t forget to FALL
BACK.

CALENDAR OF EVENTS

November 2-All Saints Church, Glenview, Illinois, 71st Anniversary
under auspices of Archbishop Oshagan Choloyan, following the Divine
Liturgy, at Shahnasarian Hall, 1701 N. Greenwood, Glenview, Illinois.

November 2-Family Brunch following the Divine Liturgy, Sts. Vartanantz
Church, 461 Bergen Boulevard, Ridgefield, New Jersey, sponsored by the
Nareg Armenian School. Adults $15; children under twelve $5.00. All
proceeds will benefit the Nareg Saturday School.

November 6-Avak Luncheon, sponsored by St. Gregory Church, 158 Main
Street, North Andover, Massachusetts, at noon. Speaker: Sonya
Vartabedian, `Diary of a Community Editor,’ reflections from Sunday
School student here to award-winning journalist and editor of The
Andover Townsman and Andover Magazine.

November 7-8-9-Rouben Mamoulian Film Festival, 7 pm, at the Museum
of the Moving Image in Astoria, New York. Sponsored by the
Anthropology Museum of the People of New York, the Armenian Cultural
Educational Resource Center Gallery at Queens College, and The Museum
of the Moving Image. Opening night and reception will feature Love Me
Tonight, the 1932 musical comedy film produced and directed by
Mamoulian, with music by Rodgers and Hart, starring Jeanette MacDonald
and Maurice Chevalier. For tickets and information:
[email protected] or 718-428-5650.

November 7 & 8-St. Stephen’s Church, Watertown, Massachusetts, 58th
Armenian Bazaar, 10 am to 9:30 pm at Armenian Cultural & Educational
Center, 47 Nichols Avenue, Watertown, Massachusetts. Meals served from
11:30 am to 8:30 pm (take out is available). Enjoy delicious meals,
Armenian pastries, gourmet items, arts and crafts, books, raffles,
attic treasures. For information: 617-924-7562.

November 8-ARF Day Celebration, hosted by the New York Armen Garo
Gomideh. Dinner followed by patriotic songs by Karnig
Sarkissian. Guest speaker, Vicken Hovsepian, Central Committee Western
Region, at Armenian Center, 69-23 47th Avenue, Woodside, New York, at
8 pm. For reservations/info: 718-651-4687.

November 14-15-Holy Trinity Church, Worcester, Massachusetts, Annual
Fall Fest. Friday, 4 to 8 pm; Saturday, 10 am to 4 pm. Shish, chicken,
losh kebab and kheyma dinners. Home made pastries and special
desserts. For information: 508-852-2414.

November 15 &16-Sts. Vartanantz Church, Providence, Rhode Island,
Armenian Fest 2014 at Rhodes-on-the-Pawtuxet, Broad Street, Cranston,
Rhode
Island. Largest indoor festival in Rhode Island. Delicious shish and
losh kebob, chicken and kufta dinners and Armenian pastry available
all day. Live dance music. The Mourad Armenian School and Providence
Hamazkayin dance groups will perform on Saturday and Sunday at 5
pm. Hourly
raffles, silent auction, country store, gift baskets, flea-market,
arts and crafts. Main raffle prizes worth total $2,700. Fun for all
ages. Free admission, parking and valet. For information: 401-831-6399
or

November 21, 22, 23-Sts. Vartanantz Church, Ridgefield, New Jersey,
Annual Bazaar, Food Festival, and Hantes. Mezze and Kebab dinners
(chicken, shish, luleh); dessert table and trays of home-made
delicacies; Boutique
Booths; Chinese Auction; Supervised Game Room for children;
Pre-packaged Monte, Sou Buereg, Kufteh, and Lehmejun; Take-out
available; Live Music for dancing and listening. Traditional Kavourma
dinner on Sunday served immediately after church service. For
information: 201-943-2950.

December 6-Armenian Winter Dessert Festival, Soorp Khatch Church,
Bethesda, Maryland.

December 6-Lowell Gomideh anniversary celebration, 6 pm, at
St. Gregory Church, 158 Main Street, North Andover,
Massachusetts. Dinner, entertainment, program, speaker: David
Boyajian, `The Survival of Armenia: Dangers and
Opportunities. Admission: $20 adults; $10 students. For information:
[email protected] or 978-373-1654.

December 6-St. Asdvadzadzin Church, Whitinsville, Massachusetts,
Annual Bazaar at Christian Reform Church, Whitinsville, 10 am to 5 pm.

December 7-Ladies Guild of St. Stephen’s Church of New Britain and
Hartford, Connecticut, will host a Wine Tasting Party at noon in the
church hall, 167 Tremont Street, New Britain. A wine talk and tasting
will be provided by Taylor Brooke Winery, Woodstock, Connecticut,
owned by Linda Varjabedian Auger.

December 7-8th Annual ANC Eastern Region Banquet, Ritz-Carlton Battery
Park, NY. Freedom Award Honoree: former Manhattan District Attorney
Robert Morgenthau and the Morgenthau family; Vahan Cardashian Award
Honoree: ANCA activist Alice Movsesian. Tickets are $250. For
reservations and information, please visit or
917.428.1918.

December 12-Children of Armenia Fund (COAF) 11th Annual Holiday Gala,
Cipriani 42nd Street, New York City. Cocktails and Silent Auction, 7
pm; Dinner & Program, 8 pm; Dancing & After Party, 10 pm. For tickets
and information or 212-994-8234.

December 13-St. Gregory Church, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, =80=9CA
2014 Christmas Celebration’ at 7pm in the Sanctuary. Usher in
the Christmas season with family and friends. Featuring master
organist, Ara Eloian, group caroling in Armenian and
English. Reception following in Terhanian Hall. Admission is
Free. RSVP to church office 215-482-9200.

February 9-11, 2015-Ghevontiantz gathering of clergy serving the
Eastern Prelacy.

March 13-15, 2015-`Responsibility 2015,’ International conference for
Armenian Genocide’s centennial at Marriott Marquis Hotel in New York,
featuring prominent historians, policymakers, authors, and
artists. Organized by the ARF Eastern US Centennial Committee, under
the auspices of the Armenian Genocide Centennial Committee of America,
Eastern Region. for information.

March 20, 2015-Musical Armenia, presented by Eastern Prelacy and
Prelacy Ladies Guild, Weill Recital Hall, 8 pm, Carnegie Hall, New
York City.

October 5-9, 2015-Clergy gathering of Eastern, Western, and Canadian
Prelacies.

Web pages of the parishes can be accessed through the Prelacy’s web
site.

To ensure the timely arrival of Crossroads in your electronic mailbox,
add [email protected] to your address book.

Items in Crossroads can be reproduced without permission. Please
credit Crossroads as the source.

Parishes of the Eastern Prelacy are invited to send information about
their major events to be included in the calendar. Send to:
[email protected]

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIE
Une rue à Erevan au nom d’Henri Verneuil

Une rue dans la capitale arménienne d’Erevan sera inaugurée au nom
d’Henri Verneuil, un réalisateur français d’origine arménienne
(1920-2002), qui a également fait l’un des plus célèbres films sur le
génocide de 1915.

Mayrig, une production 1992 écrite et réalisée par Henri Verneuil (né
Achot Malakian) est une histoire semi-autobiographique sur la lutte
d’une famille arménienne qui a émigré en France à partir de la Turquie
après les massacres d’Arméniens dans l’Empire ottoman en ruine. Le
film dont le principal casting inclus des stars mondiales du cinéma
Claudia Cardinale et Omar Sharif a envoyé un message fort sur la
nécessité d’une affirmation internationale du génocide arménien.

Golden Apricot, un festival du film international annuel qui s’est
tenu à Erevan, a rendu hommage à Henri Verneuil en 2010, son fils,
réalisateur de télévision Patrick Malakian, qui a repris le nom de ses
ancêtres a reçu le prix à titre posthume pour la contribution de son
père au cinéma.

Cette semaine Patrick Malakian est de nouveau à Erevan où il a
rencontré le maire Taron Markarian.

Selon le service de presse de la municipalité d’Erevan Taron Margaryan
a discuté avec son invité des détails concernant l’ouverture d’une rue
au nom d’Henri Verneuil dans la ville.

From: A. Papazian

TOUSSAINT
Hommage aux victimes du génocide à Clamart – Photos

L’Association des Arméniens de Clamart (l’UCIA) a organisé samedi 1er
novembre devant le Khatchkar de la ville une cérémonie d’hommage aux
disparus, dédiés aux victimes du génocide de 1915. Jean-Marc Germain
député des Hauts-de-Seine et le sénateur Philippe Kaltenbach, ainsi
qu’une délégation de la municipalité de Clamart on assisté à cette
cérémonie. Antoine Bagdikian a pris la parole au nom de l’institut
arménien de France, pour rappeler les circonstances dans lesquelles a
été perpétrée l’extermination des Arméniens. Ara Toranian, coprésident
du CCAF a ensuite prononcé un discours pour dire la nécessité
particulière de commémorer les morts dans la diaspora au moment où le
mémorial aux victimes du génocide de Deïr Zor en Syrie a été la cible
d’un dynamitage. Claude Chappey, adjointe au maire a ensuite clôturé
la cérémonie pour exprimer le soutien de la municipalité à cette
initiative, en dépit de l’absence du maire, Jean-Didier Berger, pris
par des occupations personnelles et dont l’absence a été publiquement
regrettée par le président de l’UCIA, Tarco Kagagossian. Les portes
drapeaux des anciens combattants arméniens ont ensuite procédé à un
hommage aux morts, béni par le prêtre de la paroisse arménienne de
Chaville, avant que ne retentissent les hymnes nationaux arméniens et
français.

Cette initiative de l’UCIA s’est terminée selon une tradition bien
ancrée avec un repas dans ses locaux auquel a notamment assisté
Philippe Kaltenbach.

dimanche 2 novembre 2014,
Ara (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian

Q1 2015 – MITIGATION OF REGIONAL TENSIONS KEY TO STABILITY

Business Monitor International; Fitch Group Co.

Caucasus Business Forecast Report
October 30, 2014 Thursday

BMI View: Armenia will continue to have difficult relations with
neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan through the medium term, as a result
of sensitive historical grievances and strong domestic pressure groups
on both sides. Nagorno-Karabakh will remain a particular potential
flashpoint given the high profile of the region and ongoing talks,
which are set to test commitment to peace in both Yerevan and Baku.

The heavy troop presence on both sides of the border will remain a
key risk. That said, the willingness of regional heavyweights Russia
and Turkey to support the ongoing peace process means that a ‘hot war’
is not inevitable.

Armenia is a small, landlocked country, mainly surrounded by
hostile or unstable neighbours, which will weigh heavily on the
country’s risk profile through the medium term. That said, we hold
a relatively sanguine outlook on Armenia’s future, with a gradual
mitigation of regional tensions, strong Russian support and the
potential for reasonable economic growth set to support increased
political stability.

Challenges And Threats To Stability

Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan will remain by
far the single biggest threat to political stability until a resolution
on Nagorno-Karabakh is found. Exchanges of small arms fire between
the countries’ armed forces stationed along the border are common;
and an outbreak of war, although far from inevitable, cannot be ruled
out. The situation is exacerbated by the provocative rhetoric often
employed by both sides in relation to the issue.

All Eyes On Nagorno-Karabakh Europe – Map Of Caucasus Region

Relations With Turkey: Armenia has had no official diplomatic relations
with Turkey since 1993, when its war with Azerbaijan prompted Ankara to
close the border in solidarity with Baku. Although progress has been
made, including the signing of two protocols on the re-establishment
and development of diplomatic relations in October 2009 (yet to
be ratified), the issue of relations with Turkey remains a hugely
sensitive topic in domestic Armenian politics. This is a result of
the early 20th century mass killings of ethnic Armenians by Ottoman
forces, which Armenia refers to as genocide.

Growing Domestic Opposition: Widespread perceptions of fraud during
the February 2008 presidential elections led to mass protests and a
violent crackdown by the authorities. While tensions have subsided,
the subsequent period has seen the growth of a stronger and more active
opposition movement both within parliament and among civil society
and other groups. The presidential election in February 2013 has
generally been regarded as peaceful and received considerable praise
from international observers. However, although this has the potential
for a positive outcome in the long run, the still closed nature of
Armenian politics means that opposition groups have little outlet for
their frustration at present, which poses risks to political stability.

Wealth Disparity: Aside from perceptions of fraud in the political
system, much of the opposition is driven by frustration at the large
wealth disparity in society, which is considered by many to be among
the most pronounced in the region. According to the International
Crisis Group, more than 50% of Armenians live below the poverty line,
which creates the potential for growing resentment among disadvantaged
groups to spill over into outright protest. Poverty is most widespread
and most extreme in rural areas, where as many as one-quarter of
households are supported by family members working abroad, mainly in
Russia. The over-dependence on remittance inflows was highlighted
particularly starkly in 2009 as a result of the downturn in the
Russian economy, which forced many migrant workers to return home,
increasing the burden on public services.

Corruption: The perception of public sector graft has been a major
factor driving resentment against the regime in the past two years.

Armenia’s Soviet legacy means administrative practices are inefficient,
highly bureaucratic and open to large-scale abuse. The public sector
functions particularly badly at a local level in rural areas, driving
widespread distrust among the population.

Russian Focus: The decision by the Armenian government to join the
Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan customs union may improve security prospects
in the medium term, with Russian troops set to remain on Armenian
soil for the foreseeable future. However without a strong European
Union policy anchor we may see the drive for further democratisation
and economic development slow in the coming years.

Political Risk Ratings

Our long-term political risk rating for Armenia is 59.6 out of 100,
placing it 17th out of 31 countries in emerging Europe. That said,
it ranks higher than neighbours Russia (57.0), Azerbaijan (49.0)
and Georgia (46.8).

Armenia is strongest on our ‘characteristics of society’ component,
where it scores 77.5 out of 100, reflecting its highly homogeneous
society and relative lack of religious or ethnic tensions. It also
scores well (60.0 out of 100) for ‘policy continuity’, given its broad
historical policy stability. Weaker is the ‘scope of state’ component,
where it scores 55.0 out of 100. This reflects low government spending
on infrastructure and development (due in part to poor tax collection)
and the extent to which policy is influenced by neighbouring states,
particularly Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Scenarios For Political Change

Until 2008, the Armenian population had appeared willing to accept
regular flawed elections and a lack of democratic accountability, with
disengagement and apathy dominant. However, following the February
2008 presidential elections, something of an awakening took place as
thousands of supporters of Levon Ter-Petrossian, the main opposition
candidate, took to the streets to protest against the result. This
culminated in violent clashes with the police, resulting in hundreds
of arrests and more than 100 prosecutions of opposition supporters.

Although there has been no repeat of protests on this scale, the
Armenian population has nevertheless shown itself to be increasingly
engaged in politics in the past four years, demonstrated by a
pronounced increase in the number and profile of protest groups. This
has been met by restrictions on political groups and further efforts
to censor the media, although the 2013 presidential elections were
praised by international observers.

As a result of this and ongoing regional tensions, Armenia faces
a daunting set of external and domestic political challenges over
the next decade. A strengthening and united opposition at home, and
continuing tensions with powerful and aggressive neighbours (Turkey and
Azerbaijan respectively), will provide a stern test of the country’s
institutions and the leader’s abilities. Despite the clear risks of
further instability, however, we have a relatively sanguine outlook
on political stability and believe that significant potential exists
for democratic advances at home and a mitigation of tensions abroad.

Best Case Scenario – Big Strides Forward: The best case scenario
for Armenia over the next 10 years, and one that we feel is eminently
possible, is for a significant mitigation of domestic and international
political risk factors. At home, this has been backed up by the
successful presidential election in February 2013 that was free of
major irregularities and allowed a smooth transition of power.

Under this scenario, the domestic opposition would continue to
channel its views through parliament and a broader development of
the legal and regulatory framework would take place. This would mean
increased meritocracy and efficiency, boosting public trust in state
institutions and therefore mitigating the risks of further outbreaks
of public protest.

Internationally, this would require a major breakthrough on
Nagorno-Karabakh, which will be extremely difficult given the lack of
common ground on many aspects of the dispute between Yerevan and Baku.

A land corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and the terms of
a referendum for the enclave’s inhabitants will remain the biggest
sticking points. Any significant progress on Nagorno-Karabakh would
increase the potential for the ratification of two protocols on the
re-establishment and development of diplomatic relations with Turkey,
which have stalled since October 2009.

Lachin A Solution Europe – Map Of Nagorno-Karabakh & Surrounding Area

Should these scenarios play out, we would expect a vast improvement
in Armenia’s risk profile, increasing investor confidence in
the country and boosting foreign direct investment inflows. More
importantly, a mitigation of regional tensions would allow vast
new trade opportunities, particularly with Turkey, paving the way
for a significantly higher growth trajectory. The upshot of all of
this would be rising per capita incomes across the board, boosting
living standards.

Intermediate Scenario – ‘Same Old’: Our intermediate scenario,
and one that we also feel has a strong chance of playing out, is a
continuation of the status quo. Certainly, with progress on relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey threatening to aggravate domestic and
regional tensions, we expect governments on all sides to remain
extremely cautious. Domestically, the government may also decide to
resist calls for political and legal reform.

Should this scenario play out, we would expect it to limit Armenia’s
growth potential through the medium term. Ongoing tensions with
Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as continued deadlock
with Turkey, would keep investor risk aversion elevated and severely
limit Armenia’s export growth potential. This, in combination with
frustration over the lack of reform at home, would likely increase
domestic political tensions, with further public protests possible.

Worst Case Scenario – Armed Conflict: We refuse to rule out the
possibility of further armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Large troop presences on both sides of the border, heightened
sensitivity and provocative statements from the two parties have
served to keep tensions high, which have often resulted in exchanges
of small arms fire in the past. We highlight the potential for this to
escalate into a bigger conflict, particularly given Azerbaijani threats
to use all means to win back Nagorno-Karabakh if diplomatic efforts
fail. However, this remains an outside bet for two main reasons. First,
the Armenian army remains fairly well equipped and trained, thanks to
Russian support, which is likely to dissuade Azerbaijan from launching
an attack. Second, regional powers Russia and Turkey have gradually
stepped up their involvement in the conflict in the past two years
and we expect the leverage that Moscow and Turkey have over Armenia
and Azerbaijan respectively to prevent an outbreak of full-scale war.

From: A. Papazian

A NEW SUDDEN PROBLEM IN ARMENIA FOR RUSSIA

Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 31 October 2014, 21:03

Yerevan’s complaints about Russia’s attempts to take over Armenia
fully are growing into “tacit resistance” and disgust, which is
already expressed at the political level.

Over the past few months a lot of Russian emissaries, officials and
experts have met a tough welcome in different Armenian institutions.

One can list several incidents that happened at the parliament which
is a more public institution.

The first victim of this “resistance” was Sergey Kurghinyan who said
that Armenia does not need independence. Kurghinyan was publicly
executed by the parliamentary, expert and media circles.

Next was Dmitri Kiselyov who tried to declare Russia the second
official language of Armenia. There were calls to declare Kiselyov
persona non grata in Armenia, and the deputy speaker responded toughly.

Everything began with Zori Balayan’s letter. Afterwards, it was a
shame to speak about a pro-Russian orientation, and the supporters of
the Eurasian Integration even mentioned the threat of “ukrainization”.

Though almost all the political forces have supported the Eurasian
line of the government, the moods in Armenia can hardly be called
pro-Russian.

Kiselyov was followed by Shvidkoy, then Andranik Mihranyan and
Nikolay Rizhkov. They were all nervous in Yerevan and were saying that
Armenia does not welcome Russian initiatives. Rizhkov even had to call
Armenian counterparts and warned them – “don’t isolate yourselves,
it’s not the right time”.

Apparently, the “tacit resistance” of Armenia is becoming an issue
for Moscow. They understand here that it is maturing and is waiting
to burst. Now they are sending emissaries to feel the pulse, try to
figure out how low the Armenians can be bent and stand humiliation
when they are already reaching the sacred things for Armenians.

The Russian experts are complaining in the Azerbaijani press that the
Armenian government refuses to make concessions about the BCP between
Armenia and Karabakh. Armenia has also clearly expressed its opinion
on the language, announcing that it is not going to declare Russian
as a second state language.

Russia, however, always has a plan B for such ultimate cases as
“high-level” visits. The issues of extending the term of deployment of
Russian forces in Armenia and issues of handing Armenia’s security to
Russia were resolved by the visit of Dmitri Medvedev. And on December
2 Vladimir Putin came to Armenia to sign the notorious agreements.

In this respect, it is interesting that Medvedev’s visit planned in
September of this year was cancelled.

From: A. Papazian

RELATIONS IRAN-ARMENIE : LA VISITE DU PREMIER MINISTRE A PERMIS DE DISCUTER DU DEVELOPPEMENT, MAIS LE COMMERCE EST EN DECLIN

ARMENIE

Cette semaine, lors de sa visite de deux jours en Iran pour rencontrer
le president iranien Hassan Rouhani, le Premier ministre Hovik
Abrahamyan a discute de la nouvelle etape de developpement des
relations economiques avec l’adhesion de l’Armenie dans l’Union
economique eurasiatique et la reduction partielle des sanctions
realise par l’Occident contre l’Iran .

La croissance du commerce entre l’Iran et l’Armenie a diminue au
cours des deux dernières annees, après des periodes de croissance
entre 2009 et 2012.

Vardan Voskanyan, un expert de l’Iran, a dit que les relations entre
l’Armenie et l’Iran ne sont malheureusement pas conditionnes par la
volonte et les possibilites des deux côtes.

> a declare l’expert.

L’Armenie est un partenaire commercial attractif pour l’Iran, ouvrant
un chemin vers la Russie et l’Europe, mais divers projets economiques
bilateraux presentes au public ont ete bloques au meme endroit pendant
de nombreuses annees.

Parmi ces projets figure la construction d’un chemin de fer reliant les
2 pays pour un coût de 3,5 milliards de $ dont le lancement avait ete
prevu au debut d’annee prochaine. L’un des projets les plus importants
est la centrale hydroelectrique de Meghri qui a ete lance en Decembre
2012, l’Iran a pris sur elle de paye le montant estime a 320 millions
de dollars du coût de la construction en echange pendant 15 ans du
revenu total de l’usine qui devrait ouvrir en 2017 mais le projet
est au point mort cependant.

Cet ete le ministre armenien de l’Economie Karen Tchshmarityan a
dit que sur la frontière armeno-iranienne, il est prevu de faire une
zone economique de libre echange où il sera possible de commencer la
production et d’ouvrir des sphères favorables.

Lors de la reunion le Premier ministre iranien Eshaq Jahangiri a
dit que les liens economiques armeno-iraniens sont loin du dialogue
politique de haut niveau. Le Premier ministre armenien a son tour a
mentionne que l’adhesion armenienne dans l’UEE apportera de nouvelles
perspectives dans le developpement futur de l’economie des pays, ainsi
que cela apportera des opportunites pour les investissements etrangers.

M.Voskanyan a mentionne que le premier ministre Abrahamyan a suggere
la participation de l’Iran dans la mise en oeuvre de la construction
d’une nouvelle centrale nucleaire en Armenie.

L’experte Suse Khatlamajyan, coordinatrice du projet a l’Institut de
la societe civile et regional est sceptique quant a la participation
de l’Iran dans les travaux de construction de la centrale nucleaire
et a ajoute que si l’Iran avait de l’argent elle aurait fini la
construction du chemin de fer Kaghzvin-Sumgayit-Bakou-Derbent.

>, a declare Khatlamajyan.

Neanmoins, les projets en cours dans la region – pipeline, gazoduc,
la construction de chemin de fer ont les faveurs des politiques.

>.

L’expert des etudes iraniennes a mentionne que toutes les parties se
rendent compte qu’il y a des problèmes politiques a resoudre dans la
region, par rapport a quoi les problèmes economiques ne sont rien.

Par Gayane Lazarian

ArmeniaNow

vendredi 31 octobre 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

From: A. Papazian