Author: Andres-Papazian

HEAD OF ARMENIAN POLICE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE SHANT HAROUTIOUNYAN AS A POLITICAL PRISONER

by Ashot Safaryan

ARMINFO
Wednesday, December 10, 16:33

Head of Armenia’s Police Vladimir Gasparyan told reporters Wednesday
he does not consider Shant Haroutiunyan, a civic activist and leader
of the Tseghakron Party, as a political prisoner.

“What are you talking about? Shant Haroutiunyan’s case was anything
but political persecution,” Gasparyan told reporters Wednesday and
recommended to drop the subject, as those incidents happened over
year ago.

Haroutiunyan was arrested on 5 November 2013 after clashes of
activists with the police in the Liberty Square. Before those
incidents, Haroutiunyan was picketing in the Square with a slogan
“I am declaring a revolution!” The activist was sentenced to 6 years
in prisoner after the trial that took over a year.

Asked if the police timely responded to the situation and whether it
was not possible to prevent the clashes, Gasparyan said: “I assure
you, if we interfered a few minutes earlier, they would say that the
police attacked the people who were doing nothing bad and were just
walking along the square. Yes, they were walking along…with sticks
and ‘Molotov cocktails,'” Gasparyan said.

From: A. Papazian

EXPERTS CRITICAL OF HUMAN RIGHTS PROTECTION SITUATION IN ARMENIA

13:34 * 10.12.14

Well-known human rights activist Vardan Harutyunyan believes that
ordinary citizens are in a much worse situation in terms of human
rights protection than political and public figures or activists in
Armenia, despite the prevailing opinion that they latter group more
often suffers from persecution.

In an interview with Tert.am on Human Rights Day, Mr Harutyunyan said:

“I think violations of public and political figures’ rights are, as
a rule, made public. In this context, public and political figures
are better protected than ordinary citizens.”

Chairman of the Helsinki Committee of Armenia Avetik Ishkhanyan told
Tert.am that an acquaintance who knew about a regular annual report
on human rights in Armenia by the Helsinki Committee advised him to
copy the previous year’s report and change the figures.

Since no progress has been recorded, the advice contained a grain
of truth.

“But, joking apart, if we make a general assessment of the situation,
the re-appointment of the Syunik governor is the most glaring example.

At first sight, it has nothing with human rights, but that man is
personified violation of human rights and tyranny. I think this is
one of the major violations of human rights this year. One more gross
violation is the arson attacks on the cars of seven Preparliament
members and beating of one of them,” Mr Ishkhanyan said.

The third and fourth grossest violations are the sentence passed
on Shant Harutyunyan and his companions and the bill on NGOs. If
the bill is adopted and signed into law, it will put an end to
NGOs independence, allowing the government to fully control their
activities.

Mr Ishkhanyan accounts for this by Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU).

From: A. Papazian

WHY DOESN’T YEREVAN HAVE DIPLOMATIC REPRESENTATION IN ERBIL?

BasNews, Iraq
Dec 9 2014

by Hrant Gadarigian

“Considering that there is an Armenian in the KRP (parliament)
and that there is a sizeable Yezidi community in Armenia, those two
factors could become a rallying point for the Armenian government to
at least establish a nominal presence in Northern Iraq/Kurdistan.”

Armenia and Iraqi Kurdistan: Why Doesn’t Yerevan Have Diplomatic
Representation in Erbil?

The de-jure autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq lies a few hundred
kilometers from Yerevan. Given its pivotal role as a regional player
and burgeoning economy, should we be concerned by the apparent lack
of bilateral contact between Armenia and the KRG (Kurdish Regional
Government.

26 states now maintain some type of diplomatic representation in Erbil,
the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Armenia does not.

During a trip to Baghdad in February of this year, Armenian Foreign
Minister Edward Nalbandian announced that Armenia was planning to open
a consulate general in Erbil. Eight months later, this hasn’t happened.

Hetq sent the following questions to Mr. KarwanZebari, Director of
Congressional & Academic Affairs of the Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG) Representation in the USA, regarding diplomatic relations
between the Republic of Armenia and the KRG in Iraq.

Following Mr. Zebari’s responses, we also present the views of several
prominent political analysts on the subject.

1 – 26 states now have diplomatic representation in Erbil, the capital
of Iraqi Kurdistan – Armenia is not one of them. This, despite the fact
that Yerevan and Erbil are a mere 282 miles apart as the crow flies.

During his visit to Baghdad in February of this year, Armenian Foreign
Minister Edward Nalbandian announced that Armenia was planning to
open a consulate general in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. To
your knowledge has it done so? Are you aware of any problems delaying
the opening?

I’m afraid I can’t comment authoritatively on KRG-Armenia relations,
as my portfolio is US-KRG. If you want answers to some of your more
specific questions, I would recommend you reach out to KRG Department
of Foreign Relations. They would be able to comment directly on the
issue of an exchange of diplomatic missions.

These are very trying times in Kurdistan. We are fighting a war with
ISIL terrorists, and hosting 1.4 million refugees in our region of 5.3
million people, and for obvious reasons our focus has shifted to these
issues. Given the past delegations, I perceive KRG-Armenian relations
as quite good. It seems that there is about 1 delegation per year to
the region, which from my understanding has always gone very well. I
do not think there is a lack of will or indifference, by any means.

Establishing diplomatic missions is a long, process, and I think that
the situation on ground has dictated the speed with which we can seek
to complete these. Both the KRG and Armenia have always expressed an
interest in having diplomatic mission and I firmly believe we will
see them appear in the near future.

2 – Despite this absence of official diplomatic relations between the
KRG and Yerevan, Armenia does have an ambassador, Karen Grigoryan,
posted in Baghdad. To your knowledge, has Ambassador Grigoryan ever
travelled to Iraqi Kurdistan or contacted any KRG representatives in
an official capacity?

I am unaware of any trip by the current Amb. Karen Grigoryan, though
I do know that the previous Amb. MuradMuradian made at least one trip
to the Kurdistan Region, including one as part of the delegation
from Armenia’s Deputy Minister of Economy, MrTigranHarutyunyan,
in August 2013.

3 – Conversely, has the KRG ever contacted the Armenian government,
whether regarding trade, investment, or any other issue of mutual
concern? Does Armenia enter into the KRG’s foreign policy sphere,
and if so, in what respect?

Given the past delegations, I would imagine our governments are still
in contact, but like I said, I can’t speak authoritatively on this.

Now, with these multiple crises, we are in need of support from our
international partners. This would be an opportune moment for the
Republic of Armenia to show its support for the people of Kurdistan.

4 – Armenians and Kurds, in many respects, have a shared history in
the region. In your estimation, should the problems of the past serve
to hinder prospects for greater contact and possible cooperation in
the future? Specifically, does the KRG have a position regarding the
1915 Armenian Genocide? If so, what is that position?

As Kurds, we understand that the horrors and legacies of genocide. We
have always denounced the events of 1915. The pain of the past should
not hinder our future cooperation; today is a different era, and the
only path is forward.

5 – The KRG’s website lists Armenians as one of the peoples inhabiting
Iraqi Kurdistan. Do you have estimates as to their number? Many are
descendants of Genocide survivors who fled the Ottoman Empire who
have retained their Christian faith. Are they represented in the
parliament of Iraqi Kurdistan?

The Constitution of the Kurdistan Region mandates 1 seat in parliament
be allocated for Armenians. 5 seats are allocated for Chaldean,
Assyrian, and Syriac candidates. The Kurdistan Region is an incredibly
diverse place, a fact that we celebrate. I unfortunately do not have
estimates as to the origin and population of the Armenians.

6 – On July 1, 2014, President MassoudBarzani of Iraqi Kurdistan
announced that “Iraqi Kurds will hold an independence referendum
within months.” Given the region’s booming economy based on oil
exports and the disintegration of the Iraqi central state apparatus,
such a notion might have sounded plausible then. What about now? Has
the ongoing threat posed by ISIL and the U.S. push for maintaining
a federated Iraq postponed such a move for independence?

Although independence is a dream in the heart of every Kurd, today we
recognize that ISIL is a cancer that must be stamped out, and this
drives our policy on this. We do not share more than a 15 km border
with Iraqi Security Forces, the rest of the 1030 km border is shared
with ISIL, a condition that no nation on earth could endure. In short,
we have much bigger issues to solve at the moment, and we recognize
our duty to act to counter this evil.

Gerard Libaridian

The Kurdish Region in the north of Iraq is not only de facto
autonomous, but also de jure autonomous. By and large it is de facto
independent. Whether or not the KRG achieves de jure independence is,
at this time, secondary. We [Armenia] have a number of good reasons
to establish some sort of diplomatic presence in Erbil and a few bad
reasons why not to do so.

Armenia’s foreign policy should be based on a circumspect and
cautious realism. The KRG is only part of the very complex Kurdish
issue. We have talked too much about the Kurdish factor and done
very little about it. It is always advisable to have direct, and
even formal, contact with any state or political entity that affects
its neighborhood.

It is not clear to me why the Republic of Armenia does not, as yet,
have an official diplomatic presence in Erbil that could facilitate
the lives of Armenians in the KRG – both indigenous and refugees from
the rest of Iraq – as well as work with the Kurdish authorities toward
the goal of security, stability and development in the region.

It is possible that we should look at the degree of independence
of Armenia’s foreign policy to explain the failure to establish the
consulate that the Foreign Minister of Armenia promised.

[Historian, political analyst and author Gerard Libaridian served as
Senior Advisor to Armenian President LevonTer-Petrosyan for foreign
and security policies and Ambassador-at-Large with the rank of
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador, and Special negotiator
Secretary and Member of the Security Council of the RA from Oct. 1994
– Sept. 1997; First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RA from
March 1993-Sept. 1994]

Vicken Cheterian

Armenian official presence in Erbil is late by some ten years. There
are three reasons for which Erbil, and more generally cultivating
contacts with various Kurdish representations, is important:

As Armenian communities in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East
became victim of radical Islamist repression, Armenians sought
refuge in Kurdish regions. The Republic of Armenia has the moral
responsibility to ensure their safety and well-being.

The Kurdish political factor is emerging in the region. Kurds are
Armenia’s direct neighbors, while the KRG is an indirect neighbor –
just behind Turkey. Anyone, even without having a PhD in International
Relations, by looking at the map could tell you about the strategic
importance of the KRG for Armenia.

Erbil offers enormous economic opportunities, as it has its own rich
resources, plus 17% of Iraqi budget. An Armenian political presence
there could facilitate exchanges between Armenian industries and
service sector.

[VickenCheterian is a journalist and political analyst. He teaches at
Webster Geneva’s faculty of media communications, and is a research
associate at SOAS’s department of development studies. His next book
is Open Wounds: Armenians, Turks, and a Century of Genocide (C Hurst,
January 2015)]

Asbed Kotchikian

Establishing or maintaining diplomatic relations has to be based on
bilateral cooperation (economically and politically).

In other words what does Armenia have to offer to KRG and what does
northern Kurdistan has to offer to Armenia.

Establishing a diplomatic relation might trigger such interactions
but the question remains at what level and for what focused purpose.

Establishing direct flights to Erbil should develop some long term
economic and political prospects for both entities. However there
should be a clear and well-articulated (or at least well thought)
strategy as to what are the expectations from such a relationship.

Having diplomatic relations just for the sake of relations is
counterproductive.

Moreover, considering that there is an Armenian in the KRP (parliament)
and that there is a sizeable Yezidi community in Armenia, those two
factors could become a rallying point for the Armenian government to
at least establish a nominal presence in Northern Iraq/Kurdistan.

Finally the establishment of any diplomatic mission or representations
comes with financial obligations and also a cost/benefit analysis.

Armenian diplomacy, being mostly reactive in the recent decade or
so, is in no condition to embark on such an endeavor unless it is
coordinated with the small Armenian community in northern Iraq and also
cooperating with individuals who have firsthand knowledge of the region
(either by doing business there or having been there many times).

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIA WOULD BECOME FULL MEMBER OF EEU ONLY AFTER ABKHAZIAN SECTION OF SOUTH-CAUCASIAN RAILWAY RESUMED

YEREVAN, December 9. / ARKA /. Armenia would become a full-fledged
member of the Eurasian Economic Union only after the Abkhazian section
of the South-Caucasian railway resumed operation, according to Aram
Safaryan, the head of Integration and Development research and analysis
NGO in Yerevan, who presented today a paper titled “Russia and Armenia:
Integration on the Background of the Global Crisis.”

The paper was prepared by Mikhail Volkonsky and Nikolay Silaev,
senior fellows at the Center for Caucasus and Regional Security of
the Moscow State Institute for International Relations (MGIMO).

According to Safaryan, following Russian president Putin’s meeting with
the Abkhaz leader in Sochi the likelihood of successful accomplishment
of the talks on the resumption of the railway section has grown. He
said the stakeholders in this project are not only Georgia, Abkhazia,
Russia and Armenia, but also Turkey, which has stepped up exports of
products to Russia after the Russian ban on imports of foods from EU
and some other countries.

He said the resumption of the Abkhazian section of the railway is
strategically important for Armenia, as it provides the shortest and
cheapest land route from Armenia to Russia. Russian President Vladimir
Putin recently announced that Russia and Abkhazia may organize transit
rail service through Abkhazia to Georgia and from there to Armenia
given the accord of all sides.

Safaryan said non-governmental organizations, political circles and
the media must provide platforms to all those who favor the resumption
of the South-Caucasian Railway, as well as the construction of a new
highway, which can bind Dagestan with Georgia, one branch of which
will go to Armenia through the North-South transport corridor under
construction in Armenia, and the second branch may head to Turkey.

“It is obvious that Armenia would not feel itself as a full member of
the Eurasian Economic Union unless there projects are implemented,”
said Safaryan.

Six months ago, speaking in the National Assembly of Armenia, deputy
transport minister Artur Arakelyan said the resumption of the Abkhazian
section of the railway is estimated at $200 million.-0-

From: A. Papazian

Anti-Semitism in Armenia: a clear and present danger

By By Arye Gut/JNS.org
Dec. 8, 2014

The conflict in Syria has forced millions to leave their homes, among
them many of the country’s Armenian minority. Many have fled and
returned to Armenia, a safe haven for ethnic Armenians’much as Israel
is for Jews around the world. So it is ironic, given this shared need
for a homeland free of religious intolerance, that Armenia’s own
Jewish community has been pressured and intimidated since the country
attained independence.

Anti-Semitism in Armenia is an unfortunate and little-acknowledged
fact. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the country’s Jewish
minority and Jewish heritage’the products of a more tolerant time’have
shrunk dramatically. The end of Soviet rule removed constraint, and
anti-Semitic attacks rose dramatically. That, and Armenia’s ongoing
economic collapse, drive the Jews of Armenia to flee the country. In
just 20 years, Armenian Jewish population has shrunk from more than
5,000 to just a few hundred.

And the cultural violence has continued. Anti-Semitic books are
published and TV programs aired, and the Holocaust memorial in the
capital of Yerevan has been repeatedly defaced. Of course, many
countries have suffered such unfortunate incidents, the product of an
ignorant populace. But in Armenia such views have been espoused even
by mainstream politicians and media personalities. In 2004, a
pro-government radio presenter expressed anti-Semitic views for months
on end. A nationalist politician was also allowed to freely make lurid
slurs against Jews before public pressure forced the government to
arrest him.

The dwindling Jewish community in Armenia has complained about these
attacks’the head of the Jewish community expressed her concern that
`this [anti-Semitism] has the backing of people in power.’ But appeals
have fallen on deaf ears, which is hardly a surprise when such
attitudes are shared by much of Armenian society. The Anti-Defamation
League’s latest survey in June 2014 showed that the rate of
anti-Semitism in Armenia (at 58 percent) was the third-highest in all
of Europe, and the highest in all of the former Soviet Union and
Eastern Europe. Thus, around 1.3 million out of 2.2 million adults in
Armenia expressed anti-Semitic attitudes. Armenia’s closest
comparisons were with virulently hostile countries in the Middle East.

Sixty-three percent of Armenians surveyed believe that Jews are hated
`because of the way Jews behave;’ 60 percent claimed that `Jews don’t
care what happens to anyone but their own kind;’ 45 percent think that
`Jews still talk too much about what happened to them in the
Holocaust;’ and 38 percent consider that `Jews are responsible for
most of the world’s wars.’

Also disturbing, and of concern to Jews around the world, is that in
1988 some 49,928 families (250,000 Azerbaijanis) were forced to flee
their places of origin in 172 Azerbaijani inhabited villages, 89
villages with mixed ethnic population, and six cities from Armenia.
During the deportation, 226 Azerbaijanis were killed by Armenians and
scores horrifically injured. Their houses and properties were burned
as well.

The Khojaly massacre, committed by current Armenian leadership with
incredible brutality, was one of the worst tragedies of 20th century.
It is a historical fact that the Armenian armed forces and gunmen
spared none of the Khojaly residents, who had not managed to leave the
city and its surroundings. As a result of the atrocities of the
Armenian armed forces, 613 people were killed, 487 people were
crippled, and 1,275 people’the elderly, children, and women who were
captured’were subjected to unprecedented torture, abuse, and
humiliation.

In addition, Armenia, the aggressor, illegally occupied 20 percent of
Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts.
This caused a refugee crisis numbering nearly 1 million innocent
Azerbaijanis, as they attempted to ethnically cleanse the region.
Today, this remains a threat to peace and security in the South
Caucasus region. Encouraged by intense Armenian lobbying efforts in
the U.S. and other key nations, as well as by strong and ongoing
Russian military, economic, and political aid, Armenia has ignored
four United Nations Security Council resolutions associated with the
occupation of Azerbaijani lands and treatment of civilians.

Perhaps this is not so surprising considering that one of Armenia’s
closest allies is theocratic Iran, which has always opposed Israel’s
right to existence. This strange relationship has been very beneficial
for Iran, which has used Armenia as a conduit for smuggling and other
illicit activities, often with serious consequences for U.S. national
security.

The last point also has unnerving overtones for Armenia’s Jewish
community, which has never forgotten the participation of the brutal
20,000-strong Armenian Legion as part of Wehrmacht in the Second World
War. The Legion, led by the nationalist warlord known as General Dro,
was tasked with rounding up Jews and other `undesirables’ behind the
German army as it swept across Russia, and organized their death
marches to the concentration camps.

In such an environment, it is hardly surprising that most of Armenia’s
Jewish population has either fled or intermarried to avoid attracting
attention. Regrettably, the government of Armenia does almost nothing
to curb the growing anti-Semitism in the country. Until Armenia
realizes that narrow-minded nationalism and blaming the country’s
economic and political problems on outsiders will never solve
anything, the Jews of Armenia will continue to suffer.

Arye Gut is a board member of the Israeli-Azerbaijani International
Organization, official coordinator of the `Justice for Khojaly!’
international campaign in Israel, and an expert in international
relations.

From: A. Papazian

COE SECRETARY GENERAL CALLS FOR “IMMEDIATE RELEASE” OF AZERBAIJANI JOURNALIST

Tuesday 9 December 2014 18:42
Photo:

Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland

Yerevan /Mediamax/. Council of Europe Secretary General Thorbjorn
Jagland called for “immediate release” of Azerbaijani journalist
Khadija Ismayilova today.

“I am concerned that a Baku court ordered the two-month pre-trial
detention of prominent Azerbaijani investigative journalist Khadija
Ismayilova.

Her arrest was unnecessary. It sends a very negative message to the
civil society in Azerbaijan and to the international community.

It once again puts pressure on journalists and human rights defenders
in Azerbaijan and fundamentally contradicts the commitments Azerbaijan
undertook when it became a member state of the Council of Europe.

I call for the immediate release of Khadija Ismayilova and of the
many other Azerbaijani partners of the Council of Europe currently
deprived of their liberty”, said Thorbjorn Jagland.

From: A. Papazian

ARMENIAN STUDENTS CALL FOR GENOCIDE RECOGNITION, DIVESTMENT FROM TURKEY

Breitbart News, CA
Dec 9 2014

by Adelle Nazarian

The Armenian Students Association (ASA) at UCLA is seeking to draft
a resolution which would require the University of California Board
of Regents to divest from the Republic of Turkey.

The resolution, which will be presented to the Undergraduates Student
Association Council (USAC) on Tuesday and voted upon on January 6,
also seeks to enforce a 2005 resolution–which was passed by the
USAC–that calls for the boycott of all Turkish products in school’s
stores, according to UCLA’s student-run newspaper, the Daily Bruin.

The UC Retirement Plan and General Endowment Pool reportedly holds over
$65 million of investments in Turkish bonds. That, in turn, indicates
that it does not recognize the tragedy as an act of genocide since the
UC Regents does not divest from any holdings unless a foreign regime
is recognized as committing said acts by the United States government.

The U.S. does not formally recognize the Armenian genocide. Turkey’s
government does not recognize the Armenian genocide, either.

The ASA resolution is being drafted to coincide with the centennial
anniversary of the start of the tragedy known as the Armenian Genocide
(“Medz Yeghern” to native speakers). April 24, 2015, will mark 100
years since the start of the systemic executions (between 1915-1917)
which claimed approximately 1.5 million Armenian lives at the hands
of Turkey’s Ottoman Empire. Some suggest the genocide did not end
until 1923; the year the Ottoman Empire disintegrated.

Morris Sarafian, a third-year political science student and a member
of the ASA, said he feels the Armenian genocide provided a blueprint
for persecutors of all subsequent genocides, including the Holocaust,
the Bruin notes.

This past September, ISIS (Islamic State) terrorists destroyed an
Armenian church in Syria that served as a memorial to the martyrs
of the Armenian Genocide of 1915. Turkey, this past October, very
begrudgingly caved to U.S. pressure to allow Kurdish peshmerga fighters
cross over its territory from Iraq into Syria to help with the battle
against ISIS.

In 2012, the Bruin notes, the USAC passed a resolution recognizing
the Armenian genocide and condemning its denial. The ASA hopes to
take this resolution to the next level of recognition by directing
action at Turkey itself.

The already volatile United States-Turkey relationship could suffer a
tremendous blow should formal recognition pass in the U.S. government.

Previous attempts to pass resolutions in the House have resulted in
threats from Turkish leaders.

The relationship is at a critical juncture considering Turkey’s
strategic placement in the region as the deadly battle against Islamic
State (ISIS) militants bores on.

From: A. Papazian

PRESENTAZIONE DEL LIBRO

A cavallo del vento.

Fiabe D’Armenia Raccontate da Sonya Orfalian

di Sonya Orfalian Argo editore

Letture di Silvia Bre

sara presente l’autrice

From: A. Papazian

THREATS TO ARMENIA COME NOT SO MUCH FROM KAZAKHSTAN OR KYRGYZSTAN AS FROM INSIDE THE COUNTRY

ArmInfo’s interview with Director of the Political Economy Research
Center Andranik Tevanyan

by David Stepanyan

Tuesday, December 9, 15:10

The opponents of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union
have already called this the key cause of AMD’s slump. What is the
real cause, in your opinion?

I’d rather answer your question by a counter-question: if Armenia
didn’t join the Eurasian Economic Union, would the exchange rate
be stable and wouldn’t there be any speculations? Admittedly, the
experts explaining the AMD exchange rate crash by the situation in
Russian economy are partially right. Armenian economy is closely
connected with the Russian one. One should also take into account
the drop in the transfers being sent from Russia to Armenia by our
citizens. In this light, it is quite natural that the Russian ruble
(RUR) depreciation and the RUR drop against USD have reduced the
amounts of USD coming from Russia. The decline has reached 30%
today and affected the currency market of Armenia immediately. So,
one of the key reasons of fluctuations in the currency market is the
decline in transfers due to the RUR crash. One should also take into
account the pre-New Year demand for USD by the entities preparing to
import new lots of commodities. There are several ways for Armenia
to overcome its current foreign exchange difficulties. The first one
is to ask Russia for a stabilization loan.

As was the case in 2009?

Yes, but the problem today is that the Russian authorities no longer
trust Armenia because of its European association double game. So, we
can hardly expect them to give us one more loan so we could spent it
on currency interventions. Nor can we get this money from them in the
West as they are also suspicious. So, our only way-out is to use our
own money as we repeatedly did in 2008-2009. Then the authorities spent
almost $700 million to keep the AMD rate at 305 AMD per 1 USD just to
finally push it down by 25%. During the last 15 days the Central Bank
has spent tens of millions of USD to stabilize the AMD rate but now it
seems to have realized that it can’t continue its currency intervention
any longer as it is not able to forecast how long it will take Russia
to solve its financial-economic problems. In other words, by allowing
the Armenian dram to float, the authorities are concerned over possible
uncontrollable processes and tangible inflation, which will have not
only socio-economic but also political consequences. As a result, it
is almost impossible to calculate the real exchange rate today. The
boards of exchange offices feature 442 AMD as the purchase price and
450 AMD as the selling price. The banks sell no more than 1,000 USD
to individuals and 10,000 USD to legal entities. This demonstrates
that the authorities cannot yet find a real and effective solution to
the problem. And the commercial banks are trying to minimize the risks.

In other words, our banks are trying to minimize their risks?

Yes, you are right. Being illegitimate, our authorities cannot afford
telling people what is actually going on in the economy and are taking
stopgap measures only.

How will things develop, in your opinion?

It is hard to say, at least, for the time being. I guess AMD will
continue to fall. But I don’t think anybody can say how low that fall
will be.

Does Armenia’s draft national budget 2015 reflect the real
macroeconomic situation in the country?

Armenia’s national budget has long turned from a means into a goal in
itself. In other words, fiscal policy in Armenia is no longer a lever
of influence on economic policy. Our authorities simply want to collect
certain sums just to be able to close off some loopholes. They don’t
have a fiscal policy that can solve specific problems. All I see is
that they seek to collect more money and to put more pressure on small
and now event big businesses. So, our next year’s national budget
is situational. In case of mid-term parliamentary or presidential
elections, it will become very unclear who will be responsible for
this off-target document.

Are there prerequisites for mid-term elections in Armenia?

Being not so much strong for the power shift, the opposition forces
are not so much weak to let, for instance, reforming the Constitution
by Serzh Sargsyan. In that case, vacuum will appear within the power
pyramid, taking into consideration the fact that Serzh Sargsyan has
no political successor to the presidency. In fact, there could be no
successor, taking into account the results of his two terms in office.

So, he does not have a task of having a successor but a task
of reproduction, which is rather difficult to settle in the
conditions of no constitutional reforms. Moreover, erosion of
power is unavoidable in such conditions. Therefore, today everything
depends on the pressure of the opposition forces and the society upon
the authorities. The compromise with the authorities, such as the
extraordinary parliamentary, and why not, presidential elections,
may become the result of this pressure.

Do you see any link between the forthcoming constitutional reforms and
the significant raise planned in the wages of political and military
officials by the next year’s budget?

The authorities are preparing to the referendum in such a way. But,
at the same time, nobody has canceled displeasure of the authorities
with the power as well as the displeasure of the big business and
different layers of the society.

Then what is the resource the ruling regime is based on?

Inertance, since there is no layer in the society ready to support
Serzh Sargsyan’s regime. Even the functionaries as well as all the
rest, which feel their helplessness, inflation, etc, are displeased
with his policy. That’s why today the regime relies on the force
structures, which are still confronting the displeasure of the society
that has not been consolidated yet.

What can mobilize our society in the near future?

The opposition forces are already working with the population. The
headquarters formed by the pan-national movement are gradually
developing. And soon on the basis of communication with the society,
the opposition forces will be able to analyze the created situation,
and start more actively imposing pressure upon the authorities.

On Dec 23 the Eurasian Economic Union will consider admitting
Kyrgyzstan. If it does, Azerbaijan will have two votes (Kazakhstan
and Kyrgyzstan) for lobbying its interests in the Union.

Recently Armenia did something more dangerous: it has given up on
its complementary foreign policy. Only a political insane regime
seeing no difference between geopolitics and card game could negotiate
association with the EU for four years and join another organization
in one day. It is not Russia or Azerbaijan but our own authorities
that must be blamed for the decision to join the Eurasian Economic
Union. So, we should look for threats not outside but inside Armenia,
more specifically, inside the policy of our regime. Real threats
to Armenia come from inside the country, from the policy of its
ruling regime. After years of rush towards the European Union, we
have nearly escaped a situation similar to that in Ukraine. In fact,
Serzh Sargsyan’s “initiative” policy could have ended in the loss of
Nagorno-Karabakh, Syunik and the Armenian state as such. After all,
it was because of our pro-Western policy that Russia improved its
relations with Azerbaijan – for they in the Kremlin had no other way
to pressure us. So, threats to Armenia come not from Kazakhstan or
Kyrgyzstan but from inside the country.

And what is the alternative?

A balanced foreign policy implying avoidance of membership in any
blocs and integration unions. Yerevan should have developed military
and strategic relations with Russia and friendly partner relations
with the West. We observe such cooperation in Azerbaijan’s relations
with Russia and the West. To put it crudely, no one has been stiffed
in Baku, unlike Yerevan. As a result, Russians have locked us in a
dark room and have thrown the key into a river. As regards the West,
it does not want to have any relations with Armenia at all. The
Armenian authorities hoped the West would shut its eyes to the
electoral fraud in 2012-2013. One should also take into account the
“big money” promised by the West in case of “bigger integration”. For
the Western officials the real politic was to legitimize the
illegitimate authorities of Armenia and to use them against Russia
as a token coin. It is quite natural that Moscow perfectly estimated
the situation and exerted pressure on Serzh Sargsyan, opening his
eyes to the unfavorable reality within a day, because by losing
Nagorno-Karabakh he would lose his power. In this light, I think the
change of power in Armenia is an imperative today. It is impossible
to ensure the security of the NKR and Armenia without changing the
power in Armenia. Only after that it will be possible to consider the
relations inside the EAEU, establish trust-based relations with Europe,
the United States, and other partners. Otherwise, Armenia will have
prospects neither in the EAEU nor in any other integration union.

From: A. Papazian

COUNTRIES JOINING EEU ARE IN BETTER NEGOTIATING POSITION – NIKOLAI SILAYEV

11:49 09/12/2014 >> POLITICS

Armenian-Russian relations are traditionally important in terms
of security, both for Russia and Armenia, Nikolai Silayev, senior
researcher at the Center for Caucasian Studies at Moscow State
Institute of International Relations, director of the Caucasus
Cooperation NGO, told reporters on Tuesday.

The Russian military base in Armenia’s Gyumri is of much significance
to Moscow, said the expert, adding that Armenia and Russia should
also develop humanitarian cooperation.

Speaking about the future of Armenian-Russian relations, Mr
Silayev said that the relations between the two countries should
be comprehensive.

“Integration processes in the post-Soviet space will be implemented
for decades, while the current economic situation in Russia is a
result of the sanctions and domestic economic problems.

“In his address to the State Duma, Putin said that Moscow must carry
out more active and dynamic foreign policy,” said the expert.

Armenia has joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and it is normal
that political debates take place in the country, Silayev said.

He noted that the EEU is smaller than the EU and those countries which
are currently joining the EEU are in better negotiating position than
the countries which have signed the Association Agreement with the
European Union.

Source: Panorama.am

From: A. Papazian