Author: Albert Nalbandian

BY GAREN YEGPARIAN

You might think this piece has an exaggerated title. But, take a look at the accompanying graph. What would you call an 11-year-long decline in the value of something? And yes, even money, has a “price” and in this case (weird though this might seem as a concept), the Turkish Lira’s just keeps on dropping.

As with all economic phenomena, the value of currencies can become a real complicated mess, tough to understand and impacted by all sorts of factors and actors, not just economic ones. Currency woes can be addressed by some actions taken by a country’s central bank, but these are of limited value and can be undertaken for a short time only.

But why should we, as Armenians, care what happens to Turkey’s money? A country’s currency is a major connection to the rest of the world and to its internal policies.

When the Turkish Lira’s value falls, life becomes more difficult for its residents since anything imported becomes more expensive (think energy/fuel in particular since that impacts everything else’s prices). At the same time, paying for money borrowed from international sources becomes more expensive for the government (and Turkey has a lot of foreign debt). At the same time, it becomes easier to export goods since they have become cheaper for outsiders, which can help the country’s economy. But, exports can be impacted by the country’s political relations. And it just keeps going on. At the same time, private sector actors, investors/speculators, could be trying to make money off a country’s currency’s misfortune, and as a result, drive its value down even further.

One source lists three factors as possible causes of currency crises: a country borrows; currency values increased rapidly; uncertainty over the government’s actions unsettles investors.

The last one on the list is particularly interesting and reflective of Turkey’s current situation. It has picked a needless fight with Syria and is now burning money on war outside its own borders and inside, supporting the huge refugee exodus from Syria. At the same time, economic and fiscal policy seems to be dictated by political considerations, leading one observer, in the summer of 2018, to describe the situation as “Asking your citizens to search under their pillows for foreign banknotes and gold to convert into domestic currency…”

Turkey is messing around in chaotic Libya; creating tensions with Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel over access to undersea resources (oil and gas) in the eastern Mediterranean; building military bases in other countries; oppressing, persecuting, and repressing its Kurdish population; waging anti Armenian, Assyrian, Greek, and Kurdish propaganda all over the world; undertaking huge and somewhat pointless projects such as the new presidential place, oversized airport, and a canal that would create a new passage between the Black and Aegean Seas; and distancing itself from decades-long allies in NATO by flirting with Russia. All of this requires resources, money, time, credibility, leadership attention, which are in short supply.

While some of these actions may well be in Turkey’s best interest, they all assuredly stem from its President Erdogan’s political calculations and machinations along with his massive ego. His hold on power is getting more tenuous so he is creating distractions for his people while rallying them to his artificially created “causes”. He is therefore susceptible to financial pressures, such as when U.S. President Trump slapped tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum and threatened to mess with the Lira. In response to such actions, if Erdogan follows the best policy path, he risks looking “weak”, something his supporters would not stomach. If he acts in his usual arrogant way, he further damages the country’s economy and currency (as he may be doing now judging by the insufficient response to the Lira’s condition by Turkey’s central bank), setting the stage for much more drastic woes in the future, leading to loss of political support.

If you take another look at the accompanying chart, and notice the dates, you’ll realize that the Lira’s fall has paralleled Erdogan’s increasing consolidation of power over time.

Where does all this leave us? Perhaps it’s time for some of the wealthiest members of our communities, along with those who are engaged in the world’s various financial markets, to turn their attention to the Turkish Lira. They can help weaken the currency, thus weakening Turkey and driving Erdogan to make more mistakes while making money at the same time. If you fit this description or know someone who does that you can recruit to such an effort, get to work.

LOS ANGELES—Consul General of Armenia in Los Angeles Ambassador Armen Baibourtian was a keynote speaker at a West Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce event on February 5. The event was dedicated to expanding Armenia-Los Angeles commercial relations and tapping into the Chamber’s potential for advancing those ties.

Ambassador Baibourtian first described the strategic location of Armenia at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. He presented opportunities for investing in Armenia, as well as relevant sectors of its economy. The Consul General also outlined in detail the benefits of trading with Armenia, listing a wide range of Armenian products. He also spoke about Armenia as an attractive tourist destination.

The Consul General addressed another dimension of cooperation with Los Angeles – the advantage of having a large Armenian community in the Greater Los Angeles area. An agreement was reached to organize another event focusing on presentation of Armenian wines in the Southern California market.

The West Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce was founded in 1945. Since 1993, it has expanded its operations to include several other agencies, making it the largest in the field by size and influence in one of the richest areas of Los Angeles. The West Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce has now a membership of more than 2150 business organizations from Western Los Angeles and surrounding areas. The organization is expanding now its operation to meet the needs of large communities of Los Angeles also having Armenia among others in its plans.

Encourages Greater Civic Engagement and Closer Coalition Ties to Advance Shared Priorities

WASHINGTON—The Administration’s attacks on Artsakh aid, the growth of U.S.-Armenia aid and trade, and the recent Senate and House passage of Armenian Genocide legislation (S.Res.150 and H.Res.296) took center stage at a series of community and coalition briefings in Philadelphia, hosted by Armenian and Hellenic organizations, reported the Armenian National Committee of America.

ANCA Government Affairs Director Tereza Yerimyan and Programs Director Sipan Ohannesian offered a 360-degree review of the ANCA’s advocacy agenda and youth empowerment programs including the upcoming ANCA Rising Leaders Conference, which is set for March 22nd to 24th, the ANCA Leo Sarkisian Summer Internship Program and Maral Melkonian Avetisyan Fellowship, and the Hovig Apo Saghdejian Capital Gateway Program. Yerimyan and Ohannesian also encouraged broader participation in the ANCA Rapid Responder Program, an innovative initiative – now over 10,000 strong – that ensures timely, hard-hitting, and high-impact community support for ANCA action items.

On the policy front, Yerimyan and Ohannesian emphasized the challenges facing continued Artsakh assistance and encouraged community members to reach out to their Senators and Representatives. This alert empowers activists to call for the Fiscal Year 2021 foreign aid bill to include $10 million in Artsakh assistance and $90 million in Armenia aid. U.S. assistance to Artsakh, a core ANCA priority since 1997, is needed to continue the life-saving de-mining work of The HALO Trust and rehabilitation efforts like those provided by the Lady Cox Rehabilitation Center in Stepanakert. De-mining assistance has increasingly become the target of Administration officials, based, in part, on the claim that these funds are needed to “prepare the Azerbaijani and Armenian populations for peace.”

“It was wonderful to visit with Philadelphia’s active Armenian and Greek communities to share our advocacy priorities and discuss how we can increase our collective voice in the Halls of Congress,” said Yerimyan. “I look forward to working with our regional and local ANCA teams to organize Capitol Hill advocacy trips and increase participation in our ANCA Rapid Responders program.”

“The ANCA is committed to helping students and recent graduates begin their policy, politics, or media careers in Washington, D.C. – and there is no better way to share the message of our youth empowerment programs than through community and campus visits,” said Ohannesian, who is organizing series of presentations to Southern states in the upcoming months.

The visit to the City of Brotherly Love started with a Friday evening, January 24th presentation at St. Gregory’s Seroonian Center dinner hosted by the Philadelphia ARF Gomideh, followed by a robust question and answer session about the ANCA’s efforts on next steps deal.

On Saturday, Yerimyan joined Dr. Peter Stavrianidis, Louis Katsos, and Paul Pavlakos, Supreme President of the Sons of Pericles, on a panel discussion focusing on the “Christian/Greek Genocide During the Late Ottoman Period (1894-1924),” organized by the Order of American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association Hercules – Spartan Chapter #26 and the AHEPA Hellenic Cultural Commission in Association with Eastern Mediterranean Business Cultural Alliance. Yerimyan called special focus to the longstanding campaign to secure proper Congressional reaffirmation of the Armenian Genocide, the near-unanimous passage of S.Res.150 and H.Res.296, which included reference to the genocides committed against the Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Syriacs, Arameans, Maronites, and other Christians.

On Sunday, Yerimyan was joined by ANCA IT Director Nerses Semerjian for an after-Mass presentation at the Holy Trinity Armenian Apostolic Church in Cheltenham, where the ANCA was welcomed by Rev. Hakob Gevorgyan and enthusiastic parishioners. The ANCA offered special thanks to parishioners Ashot and Ayida Petrosyan, who generously donated copies of “The Chronicles of Karabakh,” a magnificent picture book detailing the history of the Artsakh, for distribution to elected officials and libraries.

The ANCA Washington, D.C. and Regional teams are always available to share Armenian American advocacy priorities and methods to expand civic engagement in communities across the U.S. To invite ANCA representatives to your community or church event, please email the ANCA at [email protected] or call 202.775.1918.