Author: admin

Diplomatic Traffic, DC
Feb 1 2009

Russian Arms to Armenia Could Change Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy

Fariz Ismailzade

The recent thaw in Russian-Azerbaijani relations seems to be coming to
a sudden end, as Azerbaijani media outlets circulate news of Russian
arms deliveries to Armenia in the amount of US$800 million. The news
sparked huge protests both among the Azerbaijani general public and
politicians. More importantly, it created a sense of treason among the
political leadership of Azerbaijan, which had been promised support
from Russia in the aftermath of the Georgian-Russian war. Such
disappointment could result in grave geopolitical shifts in the region
and changes in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy course towards NATO.

BACKGROUND: On January 6, Azerbaijani media outlets reported that
Russian defense officials transferred weapons and other military
hardware worth US$ 800 million to Armenia in 2008. The evidence
consisted of a document containing the signature of a Russian defense
official and a detailed list of the transferred weapons. As becomes
clear from the document, the weapons used to belong to a Russian
military bases in Georgia, which was later withdrawn in accordance
with OSCE requirements and relocated to Armenia. At that time, Russian
political and military officials responded to Azerbaijani concerns
about the relocation by stating that the weapons and other military
equipment in the military base would remain the property of the
Russian Federation, and would not be transferred to Armenia. `Russia
promised Azerbaijan that the weapons would not be given to Armenia,’
says political analyst Rasim Musabekov.

The current news had the effect of a thunderstorm from a blue
sky. Azerbaijani officials immediately reacted to the news by harshly
condemning the Russian actions and citing its negative consequences
for peace and stability in the region. Various members of Parliament,
along with renowned public figures and policy analysts, have written
op-eds and spoken on TV about this incident. For instance, Anar
Mammadkhanov, a Member of Parliament and close loyalist of President
Ilham Aliyev, referred to the sale as `unexplainable Kremlin
boorishness.’

The Azerbaijani Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense have
launched an investigation of the issue, which concluded that an
illegal transfer of weapons from Russia to Armenia has indeed taken
place. The reaction was very harsh. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs
summoned the Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan and expressed deep
frustration with the incident. The press release of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs said, `The transferred weapons strengthen the military
capacity of Armenia, which occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s
territory. By doing this, Russia violated its own promises and the UN
General Assembly resolutions.’

It should be noted that it is not the first instance of Russian
`donations’ of weapons and military equipment to Armenia, its
strategic ally and military outpost in the South Caucasus, which is a
the only member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in the
South Caucasus. Back in 1997, a scandal erupted when the head of the
Defense Committee of the Russian Duma, Lev Rokhlin, discovered and
announced that Russia had illegally transferred weapons to Armenia in
the amount of US$1 billion. After Azerbaijan’s fierce protests, the
Russian Defense Ministry launched an investigation, but has to date
failed to punish the officers responsible. Rokhlin himself was
subsequently killed in a mysterious accident and the issue was largely
forgotten.

After the recent incident, Azerbaijanis again recalled the incident of
the late 1990s. `Only God knows how many other transfers Russia has
made to Armenia, both legally and illegally,’ says Ilgar Mammadov, a
Baku-based political analyst, in his blog. It is not clear where all
these weapons are stored. If they are stored in Armenia, it is
questionable how this corresponds to the limitations imposed by the
Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. It seems that Armenia
has previously been exceeding the quotas of this treaty. One way to
circumvent this problem could be to transfer the weapons to
Nagorno-Karabakh, which continues to remain an soon after unmonitored
zone by international organizations. If this would be the case, the
conflict zone becomes even more militarized, significantly reducing
chances for a peaceful resolution.

Most government officials are convinced that despite all the peace
rhetoric, Russia continues to arm Armenia and remain interested in
maintaining the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict unresolved. The incident is
especially damaging since it was reported only one month after
President Aliyev signed the Moscow Declaration on Nagorno-Karabakh
together with Russian President Medvedev and Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan. Although Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov phoned his
Azerbaijani counterpart Elmar Mammadyarov to convince him that no such
transfer has taken place, the Azerbaijan side is convinced otherwise.

IMPLICATIONS: It is clear that the weapons transfer incident will play
an extremely damaging role in Russia-Azerbaijan relations. These
relations have been improving in the past several years, with
President Ilham Aliyev reaching out to Moscow and downplaying his NATO
aspirations in favor of accommodating Russian interests and building
pragmatic relations with the Kremlin. Economic cooperation and trade
between Russia and Azerbaijan reached its highest levels in
2008. President Medvedev visited Baku and expressed an interest in
buying all Azerbaijan’s gas. President Aliyev visited Moscow on a
number of occasions and expressed an interest in building deeper and
more constructive relations with Moscow.

On the one hand, this was done to improve the chances for a peaceful
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (Moscow is one of the
co-chairs of the Minsk group and an influential partner of
Armenia). On the other hand, Aliyev sincerely wanted to help Russia
improve its image on the international arena. For instance, during the
Georgian-Russian conflict, Aliyev refrained from accusing Russia of
aggression. He subsequently signed the Moscow Declaration ` not a
breakthrough in the peace negotiations as sometimes suggested, but
nevertheless a boost for the Kremlin’s image as a peace broker in the
South Caucasus following its invasion of Georgia. All of these
gestures were aimed at winning Moscow’s favor.

After this incident, frustration among the political leadership in
Baku is obvious. It is perhaps a wake-up call for the Azerbaijani
public and officials, who increasingly believe that Moscow will always
be guided by zero-sum games and interested in maintaining the
conflicts in the former Soviet space unresolved, and that Moscow will
continue to support Armenia despite the fact that it stands to gain
much more by acting as a neutral player in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

After the Russian-Georgian war last August, there had been some hope
in Baku that Moscow might alter its blatant support for Armenia and
become more cooperative in seeking to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. In return, Azerbaijan would desist from following Georgia’s
path to NATO membership, and Azerbaijan would deliver its gas to
Russia rather than to the Nabucco pipeline project. Importantly,
voices calling for that have now vanished. Indeed, the voices in Baku
promoting broader security arrangements with NATO and the EU, and
viewing Euro-Atlantic integration as the only way to ensure stability
in the South Caucasus are gaining ground. That in turn takes place
just as the U.S. has signed documents on strategic partnership with
both Georgia and Ukraine.

CONCLUSIONS: In the aftermath of the war in Georgia, Azerbaijani
officials were evidently greatly frustrated with the weak reaction of
the West and Turkey’s submissive attitude to Moscow. (See 3 September
CACI Analyst) Briefly, Baku flirted with the idea of making a deal
with Russia on both gas supplies and the Karabakh conflict. Yet the
discovery of huge Russian arms deliveries to Armenia not only force
Azerbaijan to purchase more weapons and thus further militarize the
region ` it deals serious damage to Russian-Azerbaijani relations at a
personal level. Russia’s actions are now interpreted as irrational,
emotional and unpredictable behavior. Baku’s flirt with Moscow seems
resolutely over, which could rejuvenate its ties with the West ` if
the West is interested in investing in ties to Baku.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance analyst in Baku. He has
been a frequent contributor for Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
publications since 2002.

First published in the 01/28/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst:

8

Interfax, Russia
Jan 28 2009

Baku still analyzing media reports on Russian arms supplies to Armenia

BAKU Jan 28

Baku does not consider the situation surrounding alleged shipments of
Russian weapons to Armenia settled.

"We keep this issue in the focus of our attention, and this means it
remains open," Azeri Foreign Ministry spokesman Hazar Ibrahim told
Interfax.

Asked whether Azerbaijan was satisfied with a response note the
Russian Foreign Ministry has given on the matter, Ibrahim said the
"information is being studied, and therefore the issue has not been
closed."

Azeri media reported earlier that weapons worth $800 million were
passed to Yerevan from a Russian military base in Armenia.

Following the reports, the Azeri and Russian foreign ministries
exchanged notes. Russia said in its note that the Russian Defense
Ministry had not given or sold the types and amount of weapons or
military hardware to Armenia in 2008 as stated in the Azeri media
reports.

The Age (Melbourne, Australia)
January 31, 2009 Saturday
First Edition

Pioneer with a rainbow voice;
MUSIC

by Xenia Hanusiak

Dawn Upshaw’s singular talent puts her at the leading edge of her art,
writes Xenia Hanusiak.

MY introduction to classical opera was an Armenian-American opera
singer called Cathy Berberian. She made her indelible mark in the ’60s
and ’70s. She was a trailblazer. The mezzo-soprano championed the
works of her time, from cabaret versions of Paul McCartney to the
avant-garde heroics of Luciano Berio, her one-time husband.

I would take myself at the age of 14 and sit in the front row of the
Adelaide Town Hall, bewitched. I wanted to be just like her. I thought
Berberian was what all opera singers were like. I was wrong.

Then along came Dawn Upshaw.

I first saw Upshaw perform at Wien Modern, an annual contemporary
music festival in Vienna. She sang the world premiere of a work called
Lonh by Kaija Saariaho, who was about to become a leading composer of
her generation. I started to understand that opera singers were very
different to what I had imagined – and certainly not like Upshaw or
Berberian.

So it came as no surprise when Upshaw recently said: "I don’t see
myself as an opera singer." This from a singer whose repertoire
comprises the great Mozart roles and who has sung on the most
prestigious opera house stages – from Salzburg, Paris and Glyndebourne
to the Metropolitan Opera where she began her career in 1984 and has
since made nearly 300 appearances.

Berberian and Upshaw each possesses a distinctiveness that
destabilises the opera world. They are artists who have no choice but
to surrender to their individualism. As their careers unfold it is
clear that their paths are not the conveyor-belt of repeat
performances. It is a life of unearthing new composers, breathing new
interpretative dimensions into the old masters and forging new ground.

Upshaw is not a lone voice in the avant-garde universe, but
distinguishes herself by her ability to cross over to the popular
market. Her fan base expanded rapidly at the beginning of her career
in 1992 with the million-selling recording of Symphony No. 3 by Henryk
Gorecki. It is still in home music collections because of its
restorative and uplifting qualities.

As a child, she was a member of the Upshaw family singers. Singing
with parents who were members of the civil rights movement, Upshaw’s
repertoire was Bob Dylan and Peter, Paul and Mary.

When she was seven, Upshaw came to understand the extraordinary power
of music in an experience that has guided her ever since.

The day after Martin Luther King was assassinated, the family singing
troupe was asked to perform at a local church.

"I could feel the pain of the adults in the room – the meaning of the
assassination. For the first time I understood the power of healing in
music," she says.

During her student years, Upshaw’s musical lexicon expanded. "I don’t
think I was born with the greatest voice. I was born with certain
tools. I went to music schools with a few people who had certainly
more impressive vocal sound than I did," she says.

Upshaw means more than the voice when she refers to "tools": she talks
about the moment when text meets notes on the page and to communicate
that intention becomes the only reason to stand on stage. In the opera
world, the reason to sing is strongly associated with creating a
generic sound for the art form. Upshaw’s universe is more bound with
the traditions of her hero Joni Mitchell. She says if she had another
time, she would want to be a singer-songwriter. Upshaw also counts
inventive rock singer Bjork as an artist from whom opera singers could
learn. As part of the master’s degree she teachers at Bard College
Conservatory of Music, aspiring classical singers learn to listen to
the nuances of Bjork and other popular artists of our time.

Upshaw is in Australia for a tour with the Australian Chamber
Orchestra. "I love the ACO," she says. She first heard the orchestra
during its debut performance in New York. She cried during its
performance of the Mozart Piano Concerto No. 9 with Stephen Hough.

"I was so moved – their joy was so uplifting," she says.

This impression led to a planned Australian tour in 2003, for which
Upshaw was scheduled to sing Bach arias. As all Upshaw fans are aware,
fate in the form of inflamed vocal cords meant that the tour was
cancelled after the first performance. Anyone who was in Melbourne’s
Hamer Hall for that cancellation announcement witnessed the
disappointment.

ACO artistic director Richard Tognetti says Upshaw was horrified that
she had to cancel. But since then, the "good honest chick with a
silken voice that transcends technique", as he describes Upshaw, has
become a close musical collaborator on three overseas tours, while
Australia has been patiently waiting for a moment in her diary.

Upshaw will sing three songs by American composer Osvaldo Golijov, a
composer who grew up in an Eastern European Jewish household in
Argentina. His relationship with Upshaw has been particularly
close. Upshaw says that when she first heard Golijov’s music "it was
like an epiphany". These songs are of loss, sadness and mourning with
influences of klezmer, flamenco, Galician and gypsy music.

According to Golijov, one of the strongest inspirations was "Dawn
Upshaw’s rainbow of a voice … I wanted to give her music so quietly
radiant that it would bring an echo of the single tear that Schubert
brings without warning in his voicing of a C Major chord."

Upshaw calls it "the saddest C Major song I know".

Dawn Upshaw sings with the ACO at the Arts Centre, Hamer Hall, on
Sunday February 1 at 2.30pm and February 2 at 8pm.

Bookings 1300136166.

Xenia Hanusiak is an opera singer. Later this year she will give
world-premiere performances of works by Chinese composer Zhang Xiaofu
at the Shanghai Music Festival, and Korean composer Cecilia Heejong
Kim at the Seoul International Dance Festival.

FOOD PRICES STABLE, IN SOME CASES HAVE TENDENCY TO FALL IN ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan

Jan 30, 2009

YEREVAN, JANUARY 30, NOYAN TAPAN. This year the RA State Commission
on Protection of Economic Competition controls the competition-related
situation in the commodity markets of social importance and will take
measures, first of all for elimination of restrictions on competition
and various violations in these markets. As NT was informed by the
Press Service of the Commission, since early January the Commission’s
employees have observed the dynamics of the prices of 10 commodities
of social importance (about 20 brands) with the aim of responding
quickly in case of suspicions that their prices are unfounded.

By the monitoring results, the prices of butter, bread, vegetable
oil, cheese, rice, flour, coffee, meat and eggs in 16 trade points
of Yerevan were mainly stable, in some cases prices had a tendency
to fall.

A PARK IN ROME IN REMEMBRANCE OF THE VICTIMS OF THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

AZG Armenian Daily
31/01/2009

Armenian Genocide

Rome Municipality culture department has taken a decision to dedicate
the Portuence Park of the Italian capital to memory of the victims
of the Armenian Genocide.

"Recognition of the first genocide of the 20th century is very
important to the Armenian community in Rome", on that occasion one
of the committee members said, Asatur Kyuzelian from London told
"Azg" daily.

YEREVAN HAILS SWISS POLICY ON ARMENIA

PanARMENIAN.Net
30.01.2009 13:37 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Currently in Davos, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
met Thursday with his Swiss counterpart Hans-Rudolf Merz to discuss
the current level of bilateral relations, ways to overcome the global
financial crisis and a number of regional problems, the RA leader’s
press office reported.

President Sargsyan thanked the Swiss government for assistance and
balanced policy toward Armenia within international organizations.

OSCE PA PRESIDENT SEES 2009 AS YEAR OF GREAT CHALLENGES

PanARMENIAN.Net
30.01.2009 15:39 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The President of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly,
Joao Soares of Portugal, said in an interview for the OSCE PA website
that he sees this year as one of great challenges, particularly when
it comes to the so-called frozen conflicts.

"It is very important that both the governmental and parliamentary
sides of the OSCE are ready to meet the challenges we face. As
experienced parliamentarians from 55 parliaments, we have the power
to influence the governmental side. And, of course, we can be on the
frontline of the political discussions," he said.

President Soares outlined his priorities of the coming year
and the role of the Parliamentary Assembly in addressing these
challenges. "We will consider new initiatives at the parliamentary
level in the Caucasus after the Special Envoy to the Caucasus, Swedish
Parliamentarian and OSCE PA President Emeritus Goran Lennmarker visits
the region next month," he said.

Mr. Soares said that the Parliamentary Assembly is also paying
"close attention" to Transdniestria and that he will visit Moldova
and Transdniestria during the second week of February for talks with
all political sides in that region.

He also discussed his hopes for the Greek chairmanship of the OSCE,
the recent Russia-Ukraine gas dispute, the crisis in Georgia, as well
as the proposals for a new European security architecture.

"I see clearly that the OSCE should be in the center of the discussion
about a new security architecture and that is it the appropriate
forum for this discussion," he said, the OSCE PA press office reports.

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS RELEASE JOINT STATEMENT ON THE RESULTS OF ZURICH MEETING OF ARMENIAN AND AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS

ARMENPRESS
Jan 29, 2009

YEREVAN, JANUARY 29, ARMENPRESS: The co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk
Group Bernard Fassier (France), Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Matthew
Bryza (USA) released a joint statement today on the results of the
Zurich meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents.

An official from the OSCE office said that in the statement by
chronological order the recent steps directed towards the regulation
of Nagorno Karabakh conflict are enumerated.

"The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group traveled to Baku on January 19,
2009, where they met with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammedyarov, and to Yerevan on January 20, 2009, where they met
with President Serzh Sargsyan and Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian.

The Co-Chairs met again jointly with Foreign Ministers Mammedyarov
and Nalbandian in Zurich on January 27, 2009, and organized a joint
meeting with Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan in Zurich on January 28,
2009, on the margins of the World Economic Forum.

The Co-Chairs explored with the two Presidents their thoughts on how
to finalize the Basic Principles on the peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, proceeding from the proposal presented to
the sides at the OSCE Ministerial Conference in Madrid in November
2007.

The Co-Chairs agreed to work with the Foreign Ministers on elaborating
proposals for the consideration of the two Presidents on the most
important remaining differences between the sides existing within the
framework of the Basic Principles. The Co-Chairs hope the parties will
be able to bridge these remaining differences in the nearest future to
secure a peace agreement. Their goal is a just and balanced agreement
based on the Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity,
self-determination, and non-use of force."

VIVACELL-MTS TO INVEST 95 MLN DOLLARS IN DEVELOPMENT OF TELECOMMUNICATION NET IN ARMENIA IN 2009

ArmInfo
2009-01-29 18:12:00

Arminfo. According to the preliminary account VivaCell-MTS company is
going to invest 95 mln dollars in development of telecommunication net
in Armenia in 2009, Director General of the company Ralph Yirikian
told journalists at today’s press-conference. He also added that in
2008 the company invested 65 mln dollars.

He said that even more competitive services will be offered to the
Armenian market in year 2009 with the launch of 3G network. "Enhanced
with the launch of HSDPA, 3G network will provide the Company with
a very important platform for delivering high quality and innovative
services to its customers", – he said and recalled that total sum of
the paid tax amounted to 30,8 bln drams against 15,5 bln in 2007.

‘VivaCell-MTS’ revenue was 75 mln dollars in the third quarter 2008. It
is by 22% more than in the second quarter.

NO LANDINGS AT "ZVARTNOTS"

A1+
[04:04 pm] 29 January, 2009

Airplanes flying to Yerevan from different directions were not
able to make a landing at "Zvartnots" airport today due to foggy
weather. There haven’t been any landings to date and it is still not
clear as to when the airport will be back on track.

"Each airline company has its own reserved airport where airplanes
make landings in such cases," told "A1+" representatives of the
Armenian aero-navigation company.

Some airline companies use the Tbilisi airport as a reserved airport,
but due to the tense political situation, Russian planes refuse to
land in Georgia.

The "Shirak" airport of Gyumri and the Turkish city of Trabizon are
used as reserved airports. The plane coming from Prague to Yerevan
landed in Trabizon and some of the passengers on that plane were
actually Armenian journalists providing coverage of the PACE winter
session.

There have been some flights despite no landings. The press secretariat
of "Zvartnots" told "A1+" that the fog disappeared for a while and
the planes were able to fly to Moscow, Ufa and Tbilisi.