ANKARA: ‘Turkey should change bridge rhetoric’

Hurriyet, Turkey
July 11 2009

‘Turkey should change bridge rhetoric’

ISTANBUL -Turkey is not a bridge and I think we should forget using
this rhetoric. We should drop this rhetoric from Turkish foreign
policy. We are a kind of melting pot, a hub, a political, cultural,
strategic hub, whatever you would like to call it. A center where
people can meet together, talk together, and where they can interact
together.

During the Cold War, Turkey turned its back and ignored the Middle
East, said Prof. Mustafa Aydın in an interview with the
Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review, adding that since former
Prime Minister Turgut Ã-zal’s administration, Turkey has shown more
attention to its surrounding regions.

Aydın’s list of accolades and accomplishments is one of the
longest to be found on the Internet. He’s written books and articles,
given lectures and served on the boards of prestigious international
organizations. At present he is the chairman of the department of
international relations at the Union of Turkish Chambers of Commerce
and Commodity Exchanges, or TOBB, University in Ankara. He spoke with
the Daily News during the second Symposium of the International Centre
for Black Sea Studies on Kalymnos in the Dodecanese Islands of Greece.

Aydın said while Turkey’s relationship with the Middle East had
grown stronger, it especially gained emphasis when the ruling Justice
and Development Party, or AKP, government came to power. "You can find
different reasons for that but one of the reasons is the AKP’s ability
to play around the Middle East easily. They also have some affinity to
Middle Eastern politics and I suppose they have some inroads and
connections in the region so that they can tap into them for the
benefit of their government and Turkey," he said.

Aydin also said he has two major views when examining Turkey’s recent
Middle Eastern policies. His first view is that Turkey is very active
in the region, working to improve its relations with countries such as
Syria, Iraq and Palestine. Aydin said Turkey’s activity is a highlight
of its foreign policy, especially when examining Turkey from the
outside. "It gives Turkey a certain input in the eyes of Western
countries, European countries. It shows Turkey’s power, ability to
talk to people in different regions and to interact with them."

While he sees Turkey’s participation in the Middle East as positive in
improving relations, his second view is that Turkey has pushed its
initiatives too far. "When you are trying to deal with so many
different issues at the same time, you lose because Turkey’s capacity
has a limit. You cannot deal with all these problems at the same time
at a sufficient level. And when you are trying to deal with five or
six different projects at the same time, you weaken yourself. You
could have focused on one or two initiatives and been successful."

Aydin said there are many sides to the issue. "Another side of all
this is that many of Turkey’s initiatives in the Middle East have been
meticulously programmed, designed and put into force. However,
somehow, sometimes domestic political considerations influence and
intervene in the smooth running of the policies. For example, Turkey
has been trying very strongly for years to become a mediator between
Syria and Israel to gain their trust so that Turkey can play that
role. And finally both sides trusted Turkey to play that role. But
suddenly Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an goes to Davos and in one minute
he ruined it. Now the Turkish foreign minister is trying to go back to
the situation before Davos. It’s not easy. I know the foreign minister
is going to visit Israel soon and mend the relationship. They don’t
need this. If you have something good, don’t break it. This shows that
domestic politics or domestic political aspirations have a bad
influence on Turkish policy sometimes, not only in the Middle East but
especially in the Middle East."

Aydın’s looks belie his age and his easy accessibility is far
from what one expects of a professor with such a long list of
credentials. One of his values is that he is not just open to
criticism and different points of view, but he is also very
intelligent and capable of analyzing tough problems with a surgical
knife.

Asked about the results of Turkey’s emphasizing its great potential as
a bridge between the West and Eurasia, Aydın reacted strongly
against the use of the word "bridge."

"I think there are two sides to this. The first one is the rhetoric of
being a bridge; I think it does not serve Turkey’s interests. A bridge
is something very static, which Turkey is not; it is an ever changing
country. Secondly a bridge is something that connects two sides and
has no influence on either side; the bridge is something that you pass
over. You don’t pay attention to it. However, Turkey is not a bridge
and I think we should forget using this rhetoric. We should drop this
rhetoric from Turkish foreign policy. We are a kind of melting pot, a
hub, a political, cultural, strategic hub, whatever you would like to
call it, a center where people can meet together, talk together, and
where they can interact together. So the tough side of this is that I
oppose the rhetoric of the bridge in Turkish foreign policy.

"The second side is that Turkey has gained a certain level of
influence in Eurasian politics. This is again long term. We have to
take a long-term perspective. It started in the 1990s. There is a
tendency in recent Turkish foreign policy to suppose as if everything
started with the AKP government. I don’t share this kind of
analysis. Turkish foreign policy is like a straight line. It turns but
when it turns it takes time. It turns slowly. Turkish foreign policy
actually started to turn in the 1990s, since the end of the Cold
War. But here not only recent Turkish politicians but international
developments played a role. So again coming back to Eurasia, Turkey’s
Eurasia policy also has been changing since 1990-1991. After a period
of 20 years, after the end of the 1990s, they started to analyze
Eurasia much more rationally, more objectively and more
structurally. And based on that, since the second half of the 1990s,
Turkey has been focusing on the Caucasus rather than Central Asia and
of course in the 2000s on the Black Sea as well as including the
Russian Federation.

"So when you look at these regions, in Central Asia Turkey does not
have the big influence that Turkey wanted to have in the early
1990s. However, we don’t have many problems with these countries. We
have normalized relations there. It’s not something special anymore.

"But when you look at Turkey’s relations with the Caucasus, with
Azerbaijan, and not only with Azerbaijan but also to many people’s
surprise with Georgia, they are very special."

Turkey has become the biggest trade partners of both countries, their
biggest investors, specifically in energy. Turkish companies are
building airports and infrastructure, etc. etc. so there is very close
linkage there. And Turkey has certain influence and potential to
affect developments in that region. And also having improved relations
with Russia gives Turkey a certain ability or maneuverability to
affect developments in this area too. Recently this Caucasus operation
and platform idea is one such example. I’m not sure whether it’s going
to be successful or not. It’s a long-term project. But it’s the only
project that you can see on the ground. There’s no other project to
develop something remarkable for cooperation within the region.

"The only real puzzle is, of course, how Turkey is going to handle
relations with Armenia. If we succeed in approaching Armenia and
changing Armenia’s orientation toward the West, then Turkey’s ability
to influence developments in the Caucasus will be greatly increased.

"Again you see here the same thing as in the Middle East, you
meticulously plan, program and put into effect a policy line, a
structured project that suddenly domestic politics influences and you
do something or you destroy everything or you stop everything at least
for some time for the foreseeable future."

Threats to Turkey

>From where does Aydın think the greatest threats to Turkey
will come in the future? He admits he doesn’t know because they are
everywhere.

"I think the greatest threat Ã? I will define threat not in a
very conventional way, in a very unconventional way. And I think that
the greatest threat to Turkey in the future is to be left out of the
European Union. Or more correctly, out of the European family of
states. If Turkey is not part of Europe, part of the West, it will be
a country in limbo and a country drifting away, not necessarily from
the West but drifting around. Then we will look at different
alternatives and we’ll not be able to make up our minds between
alternatives. It won’t be the first time that domestic politics have
influenced foreign policy. That kind of Turkey becomes introverted,
inward looking, xenophobic, ultra-nationalist and everything that
affects Turkey’s economic stability. So that I think is the biggest
threat, not necessarily to be a member of the EU but to be part of the
European state of families, within the same mentality and the same
world outlook."

Former NA Speaker: Armenia Needs Political Forces Of New Quality

FORMER NA SPEAKER: ARMENIA NEEDS POLITICAL FORCES OF NEW QUALITY

Noyan Tapan
July 10, 2009

YEREVAN, JULY 10, NOYAN TAPAN. PACE new Resolution N 1677 on Armenia
adopted at the June session is evidence that the home political
crisis has not been overcome in the country yet. Former NA Speaker,
independent deputy Tigran Torosian expressed such an opinion at the
July 10 press conference. In his words, the Resolution’s content
makes it clear that Armenia has not fulfilled the demands made in
the former resolutions. In that context, according to T. Torosian,
it is not understandable how the Co-chairs used the word combination
"a step forward" in their conclusion.

Speaking about Armenia’s home political sphere, the former NA Speaker
said that country’s multi-party system is degradated. In T. Torosian’s
affirmation, capable political forces of new quality are needed to
correct the situation and to solve the most important problems faced
by the state.

Speaking about fall of Armenia’s economy, T. Torosian said that its
reason is not only the world financial-economic crisis, but also
the economic policy carried on by the state and the imperfection of
new laws.

In connection with the amnesty granted on June 19 T. Torosian said
that it "was not the way society expected" and cannot weaken political
tension.

Vazgen Manukian Convinced That Public Council To Manage To Find Ways

VAZGEN MANUKIAN CONVINCED THAT PUBLIC COUNCIL TO MANAGE TO FIND WAYS OF SOLVING PROBLEMS CONCERNING WIDE SECTIONS OF POPULATION

Noyan Tapan
July 10, 2009

YEREVAN, JULY 10, NOYAN TAPAN. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan met
with the members of the Public Council on July 9. Noting that this
is the first meeting since the full formation of the Public Council,
he congratuled the 36 members of the Council and wished them fruitful
activity.

Then S. Sargsyan in particular said:

"What has been created is an unprecedented body whose structure
and regulations were developed and formed outside state bodies. Its
elections were also held in a way having no precedent. What we will
receive as a result depends on all the 36 members of the Public
Council.

I … know that your decisions are not subject to compulsory execution
by state government bodies and will not have a direct effect on
the policy.

However, it is clear to all of us that this structure has been set
up to have an impact on the policy. At first glance it seems to be
contradictory, but it is obvious, at least to me, that there is no
contradiction here. The state bodies act first of all by the force
of the law, whereas respect, authority and public trust will play an
essential role in your activities…

I wouldn’t like the Public Council to become a structure resembling
a closed club…

I want you to play a significant role in decisions to be made. The
interest of the president and the state here is that while
participating in important decision making, you should become the
executors and, most of all, spreaders of these decisions…

>From the very first day of voicing the idea, some people started
sticking labels on this structure, not even knowing under what
regulations it will function. I am convinced that both you and the
mature part of our society understand very well why this discrediting
process has begun…"

According to the RA presidential press service, then Chairman of the
Public Council Vazgen Manukian presented the formation process of the
Council’s commissions and other organizational issues. He said that
during the formation of the commissions, a lot of people expressed
readiness to work on a voluntary basis, which allowed including highly
qualified experts of various spheres in the commissions.

He expressed confidence that the body headed by him will manage to
discuss the problems concerning wide sections of the population and
find ways to solve them. In his words, the Public Council has already
received many letters, which are classified by subjets and analyzed
so as to specify problems of general importance.

V. Manukian said that bodies like the Public Council exist in all the
countries proceeding along the path of democratization, and these
bodies take a considerable part in solution of social problems and
also act as a conciliator in case of a clash of interests in society.

ANKARA: The World’s Most Delicious Festival, Movies And Apricots

THE WORLD’S MOST DELICIOUS FESTIVAL, MOVIES AND APRICOTS

Hurriyet

July 10 2009
Turkey

ISTANBUL – Turkish directors are in Armenian capital of Yerevan to
attend the International Golden Apricot Film Festival, which will
be organized for the sixth time this year. Directors from all around
the world will gather around the theme of ‘Directors Across Borders’

One after another, renowned international festivals are rolling into
the region this summer. This July, the big festival destination is
the Armenian capital, Yerevan. Between July 12 and 19, more than 110
films from 65 countries, including Turkey, will be shown during the
6th International Vosge Zsiran (Golden Apricot) Film Festival.

One of the most comprehensive film festivals in the Caucasus, the
international festival bears the name apricot, one of the symbols
of Armenia.

Speaking to the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review, the festival’s
program director Michael Stampolsyan and press representative Seda
Papoyan provided information about the festival.

Papoyan said many national and international festivals are organized
in Yerevan in the spring and summer, and added that the city was
ready to be painted the color of apricots and welcome its guests in
July once again.

This year the festival will also feature renowned directors Rob
Nilsson (United States), Jerzy Skolimowski (Poland) and Kohei Oguri
(Japan). Atom Egoyan and his actress wife, Arsineh Khanjan, are also
expected to attend this year’s festival.

In previous years, the festival hosted many other celebrated directors,
including Atom Egoyan (Canada), Wim Wenders (Germany), Abbas Kiarostami
(Iran), Catherine Breillat (France), Nikita Mikhalkov (Russia) and
Goran Paskelevic (Serbia).

Apricots will be blessed

The opening film of the festival will be French director Laurent Tuel’s
"Le Premier Cercle" (The First Circle), starring Jean Reno.

As in previous years, Armenia’s newly harvested apricots will be
blessed during special church ceremonies before the opening of
the festival. In addition to apricots, grapes are also blessed in
churches during the grape harvest in Armenian tradition. Every year,
on the second Sunday of August, grapes are blessed during celebrations
organized for the memory of the Virgin Mary, which are also honored
by the tradition of fasting. The celebrations go back to pre-Christian
times.

Turkish and Armenian directors have been producing common projects for
some time, with mutual filming sessions held in both countries. This
collaboration has been seen at festivals in both Turkey and Armenia.

Turkish films met with Armenian audiences for the first time last
year at the Golden Apricot Festival. This year, the festival will
welcome a Turkish director again, Ozcan Alper, and his film "Sonbahar"
(Autumn). Among thse that were released last year, the film won
a number of national and international awards, such as the Art &
Essay CICAE Prize at the International Locarno Film Festival.

Stampolsyan said examples of Turkish cinema would not only be limited
to Alper’s film, adding that films from contemporary Turkish cinema
would also be screened under the section titled "Directors Across
Borders." "Eniz Rıza from Turkey will be among the jury members of
documentary films," he said.

Papoyan said the festival had many sections. He said films from French,
German, Dutch and Czech cinema would be shown under the titled "One
Day in Europe."

Another attraction at the festival will be "Arabian Nights." Papoyan
said this section would present the masters of Arabian cinema to
the audience. According to Stampolsyan, the most special part of
the festival is the one that is dedicated to the 85th birthday of
Russian director with Armenian origin Sergey Parajanov. The section
will screen the director’s films. There will also be workshops and
panels as part of the festival.

www.gaiff.am

Visit Of Armenian And Azerbaijani Ambassadors To Stepanakert Offensi

VISIT OF ARMENIAN AND AZERBAIJANI AMBASSADORS TO STEPANAKERT OFFENSIVE

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
09.07.2009 20:05 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Visit of ambassadors of Armenia and Azerbaijan to
Russia, Armen Smbatyan and Polad Bulbuloglu, as well as representatives
of Armenian and Azerbaijani intellectuals in Stepanakert is just
offensive for the Defense Army and the people of Nagorno Karabakh,
Zhanna Galstyan, Chairman of the Standing Committee of Defense,
Internal Affairs and Security of NKR NA told a PanRMENIAN.Net
reporter. "If they come again, then they would draw blank,"she
said. On July 3, ambassadors of Armenia and Azerbaijan to Russia
Armen Smbatyan and Polad Bulbuloglu, the head of the Federal Agency
for Culture and Cinematography Mikhail Shvydkoi were paying a visit
to Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. During the visit they met with the
President of NKR Bako Sahakyan.

Baku’s Warming To Israel Angers Iran

BAKU’S WARMING TO ISRAEL ANGERS IRAN

ISN
9 Jul 2009

Tehran’s attempt to scupper the Israeli president’s visit gets
nowhere, as Baku decides that ties to Israel take priority over
Islamic solidarity, by Kenan Guluzade for IWPR.

The first visit by a president of Israel to independent Azerbaijan
has caused a diplomatic rupture between Baku and Tehran, as well as
highlighting warming ties between the Central Asian republic and the
Jewish state.

President Shimon Peres made his official visit to Azerbaijan on
June 28-29. The countries signed two agreements, on cooperation in
the fields of science, education and culture and on information and
communication technologies.

Israel has maintained an embassy in Baku since the early Nineties,
shortly after Azerbaijan declared independence from the Soviet Union.

Baku has not yet reciprocated by opening an embassy in Israel. Nor
have Israeli officials been invited to visit the overwhelmingly Muslim
country until recently.

Boyukaga Agayev, head of South Caucasus Research Centre, said the
Israeli visit had been symbolically significant as well as posing
dilemmas for a state like Azerbaijan, which was Muslim but secular –
and keen to have feet in several camps.

"Azerbaijan is a secular state but most of the population is Muslim
and overfriendly relations with Israel might be misinterpreted by
allies in the Organisation of the Islamic Conference as a breach of
Muslim unity," Agayev said.

"This organisation supports Baku in opposition to Yerevan," he added,
referring to Azerbaijan’s rancorous dispute with its neighbour Armenia
over the territory of Nagorny Karabakh.

A separate problem was Iran – a regional partner of Azerbaijan in
the OIC but a bitter foe of Israel. "Tehran actively objects to us
opening an embassy in Israel as well as to the visit of officials
from that country to Baku," Agayev continued.

One day before Perez’s visit, Iran reminded Azerbaijan of its feelings
on the issue, urging Baku to close the Israeli embassy and describing
the visit of the Israeli head of state as an insult to the Islamic
world.

Azerbaijan’s foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, replied that Baku
would do no such thing while Iran remained friendly to archenemy
Armenia.

"Iran’s declaration about the need to close the Israeli embassy in
Azerbaijan is surprising," he said, noting that Iran continued to
"receive officials from Armenia at the highest level".

After Iran’s protest failed to have any effect, Tehran recalled
its ambassador to Baku, Muhammad Bagir Bahrami, "for consultations"
while Perez was in the country.

Baku’s cool response to Tehran’s blustering reflects the fact that
ties between Azerbaijan and Israel have become increasingly important
for both countries.

The value of trade between the countries has risen to 3.6 billion
US dollars annually, based on figures for 2008, substantially as a
result of Azerbaijani oil exported to Israel through the Turkish port
of Ceyhan.

Political scientist Rasim Musabayov says Tehran has little leverage
over Baku, as a result of the growing mutual interests between
Azerbaijan and Israel over trade and energy.

"Israel is interested in a relationship with a secular Muslim country,
which is at the same time an energy supplier," Musabayov noted.

"Israel is also the third buyer of Azerbaijan’s oil in terms of volume.

"Meanwhile Israel wishes to export agricultural products and
technology to Azerbaijan and, as it emerged during Perez’s visit,
military equipment as well."

The Jewish community in – and from – Azerbaijan is another link
between the two states.

More than 30,000 Jews still live in Azerbaijan. During the Soviet
era, that number exceeded 100,000. Those who have migrated to Israel
are seen as lobbyists for the interests of Azerbaijan in Israel –
a fact to which Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliev, referred during
Perez’s visit.

"The Jewish lobby gives great support to Azerbaijan in international
organisations and US," Boyukaga Agayev said.

"The economic and political relationship [between the two states]
makes the partnership of Azerbaijan and Israel inevitable – in spite
of the possibly negative reaction of the OIC and Iran above all."

Not everyone in Azerbaijan appreciates the burgeoning alliance between
their country and Israel, however.

Some politicians and public figures strongly objected to Perez’s visit,
especially those with religious sensibilities.

"Perez’s visit is appreciated very negatively from the point of
view of Muslim unity, and as a Muslim I don’t want to host a person
responsible for the recent Holocaust in the Gaza Strip," said Haji
Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, head of the Centre for Protection of Freedom
Conscience and Religion.

The theologian was referring to Israel’s controversial military action
against the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

"It is especially bad to do this at a time when Baku is claiming it
is centre of Islamic culture," Ibrahimoglu noted.

"That doesn’t mean I support Iran… I also oppose the fraternisation
between Tehran and Yerevan and [Armenian president] Serj Sargsyan’s
visits to Muslim countries. I am just against people and countries
that act aggressively to, and terrorise, Muslims."

The theologian insisted he was not motivated by any feelings of
anti-semitism.

"Jews are my brothers and sisters; they are very wise and talented,"
he said. "I don’t associate the whole of Israel with terror and Zionism
just as I don’t associate all Muslims with Taleban and al-Qaeda."

Opposition on the part of active Muslims to Perez’s visit to Baku
did not develop into mass protests.

Even Nardaran, a religiously conservative Muslim suburb of Baku, where
the population is very supportive of Iran – and where they frequently
demonstrate this by burning US and Israeli flags – saw no disturbances.

Political scientist Rasim Musabayov said the lack of a response on
the streets to the Israeli visit was not surprising.

"The support base within Azerbaijan for Iran’s position is very weak,"
he said. "In any case, Azerbaijan is a secular country."

As for the simultaneous arrival in Baku of Russian president Dmitriy
Medvedev while Perez was also there, this was another warning signal
to Iran to back away.

Concerning plans to open an Azerbaijan embassy in Israel, Rasim
Musabayov is sure of one thing, "It will be opened even sooner if
Iran continues with its negative campaign."

Baku Refuses To Withdraw Snipers From Contact Line

BAKU REFUSES TO WITHDRAW SNIPERS FROM CONTACT LINE

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
08.07.2009 22:39 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A proposal to withdraw snipers from contact line
was accepted both by Armenian and NKR leaders. The same can’t be said
for Azeri leaders, MG OSCE Russian Co-Chair Yuri Merzlyakov told a
news conference in Yerevan.

In his turn, French Co-Chair Bernard Fassier noted that the mediators
haven’t yet managed to reach agreement with Azeri leaders. "Still,
we hope Azeri authorities will agree to withdraw snipers from contact
line, which is one of the most important conditions for security
provision," Fassier emphasized.

On December 4, 2008, 3 Foreign Ministers of MG OSCE member states
proposed to withdraw snipers from contact line to increase mutual
trust.

Thus Far Moscow Outnumbers Washington In Levers Of Pressure

THUS FAR MOSCOW OUTNUMBERS WASHINGTON IN LEVERS OF PRESSURE
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.07.2009 GMT+04:00

The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the agreement on
the transit of military freight through the territory of Russia.

Against the background of the constantly changing situation in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation, an impression is created that the
Armenian-Turkish relations are in a certain sense frozen and are even
brought to naught. In fact, after the "historical" visit of Ambassadors
Smbatyan and Bulbuloglu to NKR, Armenia and Azerbaijan and after the
rather sharp statements issued by the Karabakh side following the
ambassadors’ visit, all the discussions about the normalization of
relations and opening of the border remained beyond the bounds of
the main question. In this seeming recession rather a big role was
played by the visit of Barack Obama to Moscow.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ However, let us not forget, that the Obama-Medvedev
meeting was preceded by the Moscow visit of Turkish Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu, after which the Armenian-Turkish relations again
came to the fore, this time without coordination with the Karabakh
conflict regulation. The turn of Turkish policy is notable but it
didn’t originate out of nowhere. After the under oath promises of
Erdogan in Baku, assuring that Turkey would never leave her "brothers"
face to face with the Armenians, in the Turkish society there began
to sound somewhat different statements. As it is customary in the
whole world, the need for the quickest restoration of diplomatic
relations with Armenia was voiced by diplomats, who "wished to
remain unnamed". At the same time, as if in unison with it, sounded
the statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Edward
Nalbandyan, who assured that the Armenian-Turkish negotiations had
not ceased even for a minute; moreover, they continued at full speed.

What is going on in the region and especially in Armenia shows that
the USA and Russia seriously fight for the position of the leader. No
matter how hard Baku tries to present herself in the role of the key
player, she cannot succeed. By the way, the possible appointment
of Mathew Bryza to the post of the Ambassador to Azerbaijan does
not speak in favor of Baku either. Now Russia has more chances of
getting the winner’s place in the struggle, for the latter outnumbers
America in levers of pressure, the most important of them being
the notorious project of Nabucco, whose route, until now, is not
finally fixed. Neither is it determined who is going to fill the pipe
with gas, since by buying up almost all the Azerbaijani gas Russia
sent Nabucco onto the verge of disappearance both as an economic
and political project. Let us recall that Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan was
truly a political project and even now it brings no profit. But it
is realized, and Turkey together with Azerbaijan have trumps in the
regional game. The situation is more complicated with the gas pipe:
Georgia falls out of any project because of her instability; no one
wants to deal with the post-election Iran. Remain only Turkey and
Russia, the latter trying to foil the gas pipe into Europe at any
cost. And it is exactly where the struggle for Armenia begins, this
fight bearing an exceptionally pragmatic character. Is Armenia able
to become the country, through which it is worthwhile to pull a gas
pipe. In a word, nothing personal. It’s only business.

As far as the methods of pressure on Turkey are concerned,
they are rather many in Moscow. Let us name only one of them –
the Kars agreement, which can be taken out onto the table of the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations any minute. Moreover, Russia can
blackmail Ankara for denunciation of the treaty. It would be almost
deadly for Turkey: there immediately appear related problems like
Ajaria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Armenian issue appears to be
the most easily solvable. The USA hurries Turkey and again, for the
same reason, either peace or a second Iraq-Afghanistan is necessary
in the region. There is no third option for the USA for the simple
reason that "Byzantine games" are alien to Democrats. America may
engage in another conflict. Surely, it won’t be one like that of the
Near East or Afghanistan, but enough for the countries of the South
Caucasus. And there is no confidence whatever in the fact that someone
will come off clear unless Moscow once again is able to achieve a
certain positive result. The trouble is that Moscow is no longer
what it used to be before the Chechen war. Neither is the USA under
Barack Obama the same as the America under George Bush Senior. And
no matter how hard Obama tries to make his country more attractive
for Moscow, he achieves no results. And the Medvedev-Obama meeting
demonstrated it best: not a single serious document was signed at
it. Well, the Memorandum of Understanding cannot really be considered
a serious agreement. But the fact is that it was the only product of
Obama’s two-day visit. At least, it was so for the community that was
obviously waiting for something significant and weighty. Apparently,
behind the scenes remained also the agreed arrangements on the
Armenian-Turkish negotiations, the Karabakh conflict settlement
and Iran. Generalizations on ABM, START and Afghanistan are all
on the paper. The only thing Obama managed to do in Moscow was the
understanding on the transit of military freight through the territory
of Russia. It is a very modest success against the background of the
widely advertised visit, isn’t it? But, by the way, even that might
not have occured, so the USA can still boast. And all the talks on
"reload" and the hopes of Mikhail Saakashvili remained only good
intentions. However, so it had to be. In politics, when the rates are
too high, it is senseless to hurry. You can still succeed in bluffing
but you shouldn’t try…

PACE Move To Deny Russia Vote Causes Surprise In Moscow

PACE MOVE TO DENY RUSSIA VOTE CAUSES SURPRISE IN MOSCOW

RIA Novosti
15:5509/07/2009
MOSCOW

Moscow is confused over an initiative by some PACE members to try and
deny Russia the right to vote during assembly sessions, a spokesman
for the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.

The comments by Russia followed an attempt in late June by Georgia’s
delegation to get members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe (PACE) to sign a petition, depriving Russia of its vote at
the assembly.

"We have been surprised recently by the ease in which PACE
parliamentarians are ready to look at depriving delegations of their
voting rights, first Armenia, then Ukraine, or Russia. You must agree
that this is not a serious route," Andrei Nesterenko said.

The high-ranking Russian diplomat said "excluding a side from dialogue
because of a difference of opinion on an issue does not strengthen
mutual understanding."

Georgia has been repeatedly seeking to deprive Russia of its PACE
vote since last August, when both countries were involved in a brief
war over former Georgian republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
which Russia recognized as independent.

Russia launched its five-day military operation to "force Georgia to
accept peace" after Georgian troops attacked South Ossetia on August 8,
killing a number of Russian peacekeepers and hundreds of civilians.

Minsk Group Co-Chairs Due In Armenia

MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS DUE IN ARMENIA

armradio.am
08.07.2009 12:31

OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia), Bernard Fassier
(France) and Matthew Bryza (USA) are arriving in Yerevan today within
the framework of a regional visit, Press and Information Department
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia reported.

The Co-Chairs are expected to meet Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
and Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian.

The mediators will leave Yerevan for Baku, where they will have
meetings with the leadership of Azerbaijan.

The visit of the mediators is aimed at preparing the next meeting
between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow later
this month.

Yesterday the Co-Chairs were expected to visit Stepanakert, but the
visit was postponed because of bad weather conditions.