Small Countries, Huge Stakes in Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks | Opinion

The democracies of the world should pay close attention to peace talks this weekend in Brussels, where European Council President Charles Michel will host Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in hopes of resolving decades of enmity which have been marked by bouts of fighting ever since a 44-day war in 2020.

That’s because whereas in theory they aim to resolve a simmering conflict between two smallish countries in the South Caucasus, on the table is no less than a microcosm of the global clash between democracy and tyranny—and the very credibility of the rules-based world order that the West claims to champion.

The talks come just days after Azerbaijan upped its ongoing aggression against Armenia—which had hitherto been mostly gunfire—by shelling the mining town of Sotk in Armenia proper. These attacks are brazen violations of a ceasefire that ended the 2020 war launched by Azerbaijan. Each time, exploiting the dearth of international media on the ground, Azerbaijan claims falsely it was provoked. The gaslighting usually achieves its purpose of creating a lazy “clashes” narrative.

That 2020 ceasefire was brokered by Russia, the successor nation to the Soviet Union, which ruled both combatants until the collapse of communism some 30 years ago.

That created a rare alignment between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the West, with all seemingly invested in peace in the South Caucasus. But today Putin may be more interested in maintaining chaos to divert attention away his actions in Ukraine. It is telling that Aliyev signed a strategic alliance agreement with Moscow just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While there are few cases of black and white in geopolitics, this one offers a pretty stark contrast. It is one that illustrates nicely the correspondence between personalities and actions, and the correlation between tyranny at home and the inclination to make war.

Pashinyan is the elected leader of a young democracy—an ancient center of civilization that today is interested primarily in attracting tourism to its monasteries, vineyards, hiking trails and restaurants, as well as technological innovation. He quite consistently calls for peace.

Aliyev heads a hereditary family-run dictatorship, linked by the Pandora Papers to almost $1 billion in illicit assets squirrelled away abroad and described in leaked U.S. intelligence cables as a movie mafia boss. Despite significant mineral wealth in oil, natural gas, and more, the country’s per capita GDP of $5,000 is about the same as Armenia’s. Much of the blame for that can be laid at Aliyev’s feet.

Alongside the periodic and sometimes deadly cease-fire violations, Azerbaijan has since December been blockading the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated enclave within the Soviet-delineated borders of Azerbaijan.

Known to Armenians as Artsakh, the area is at the heart of the conflict between the two countries. For three decades it operated as an autonomous region within Azerbaijan, and in the 2020 war Aliyev seized much of it. The Azeris proceeded to desecrate churches and erase traces of Armenians in the part they seized—and the blockaded sector now is the rump that remains.

The 120,000 ethnic Armenians living there have faced a humanitarian crisis all winter while trying to resist Aliyev’s clear attempt at ethnic cleansing.

Moreover, Armenia, which makes no territorial claims upon Artsakh, now faces direct threats to its sovereign territory as well. Azerbaijan, whose largest ethnic group is considered Turkic, seeks a corridor through Armenia to Turkey, and has called for the dissolution of Armenia entirely.

It is good that the two sides are finally sitting down—but the hosts and all onlookers should not view this as a simple case of squabbling tribes whose claims have equal validity. In a fair world, Aliyev should be accorded the same pariah status as his friend in the Kremlin.

There is more than principle at stake: the United States and the European Union have an interest in influence in a volatile and pivotal part of the world. Aliyev wants validation and energy deals with the West, and he may be coaxed into leaving Armenia alone. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said last week that a peace deal is “within reach” and “tangible progress” had been made between the two countries.

For Armenia, that needs t include recognition of sovereign Armenian territory along with a guarantee of rights and security for the people of Artsakh.

I believe that is achievable if the world stands firm. Peace talks should never be used as a cover for succumbing to the threats of a bully. It would only invite more thuggery, all over the world.

Sheila Paylan is an international criminal lawyer and human rights expert who has served more than 15 years as legal advisor for the United Nations. She consults for a variety of international organizations.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.