The direct impact of Armenia leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), in the absence of other factors, could slow economic growth by around 0.65 percentage points. Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan presented this assessment during a briefing with journalists at the National Assembly on 6 November, responding to a question about how economically prepared Armenia was for a possible worsening of problems within the EAEU.

He said the final outcome would also depend on other negative and positive factors.

“If we leave the EAEU, and there is no other impact, just that alone, the effect on the economy is minus 0.65. In other words, if the economy were expected to grow by, say, 6.6%, it would grow by 6%, provided there were no other factors,” the minister said.

Papoyan said accompanying factors also needed to be taken into account in the assessment. As an example, he discussed the impact of a possible customs duty on gas.

In the hypothetical scenario outlined by the minister, this additional factor could further slow growth: in his example, it could be around 5% rather than 6.6%.

At the same time, Papoyan stressed that the overall assessment was not limited to negative effects.

“But alongside that, there will also be positive outcomes. In reality, there will be four or five negative factors and four or five positive ones, resulting in a certain overall effect,” he said.