The extensive report released on Tuesday on behalf of the prime ministers of Russia and three other EEU member states says the Armenian government’s efforts to join the European Union run counter to the EEU’s founding treaty and rules. It also effectively suggests that Yerevan be frozen out of the Russian-led union until holding a referendum on EU membership demanded by Moscow.

“We are dealing with a political component aimed at inciting internal political instability in Armenia and ultimately establishing control over the Armenian state — in other words, stripping Armenia of its independence, first de facto and subsequently de jure,” Pashinian said, commenting on the report.

He claimed that Moscow already tried to do that during the 2023 exodus of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population and parliamentary elections held in Armenia in June this year.

“In essence, a third attempt is currently being prepared,” he told reporters. “Undoubtedly, this is part of a widely discussed secret plan.”

Russian officials did not immediately react to the accusations that came in advance of Pashinian’s anticipated crunch talks with President Vladimir Putin. Moscow has been pressuring Yerevan to quickly choose between continuing to seek EU membership and remaining part of the ex-Soviet bloc essential for the Armenian economy.

Putin as well as the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan called for the referendum during a summit in May. They also instructed their prime ministers to present a report on “possible consequences” of Armenia’s membership suspension before their next summit planned for December. Putin and Pashinian are expected to meet again before that summit.

The resulting report warns of severe economic consequences for Armenia such as a loss of tariff-free access to the Russian market and a sharp rise in the price of Russian natural gas imported by the country. It says that the Armenian economy would shrink by over 15 percent as a result.

Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan dismissed that scenario as “exaggerated” on Wednesday, saying that Armenia’s possible exit from the EEU would not have consequences “that we wouldn’t be able to recover from.” Pashinian likewise said that the Armenian economy is resilient enough to cope with them.

Russia remained Armenia’s principal export market even after blocking imports of Armenian agricultural products and mineral water earlier this year. Armenia also imports the bulk of its natural gas from Russia at a significant discount.