Eurasian Intergovernmental Council members representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have presented a report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) due to Yerevan’s discussions of possible accession to the European Union.

The document will be submitted for consideration by Supreme Eurasian Economic Council members, heads of state of the EAEU members. Yerevan’s desire to propose joining the European Union means that if enacted, it cannot be a member of the EAEU at the same time. This has created uncertainty within the EAEU itself as its importers and exporters cannot be sure if the Armenian market will continue to be part of their remit. That interferes with their ability to plan ahead and make investments into the Armenian market. Suspending Armenia from the EAEU, while drastic, would allow some time to clarify the situation as well as illustrate to Yerevan what its trade and import-export market would be like if affiliated with the EU instead.   

The report has been drafted in furtherance of a joint statement issued by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on May 29, 2026.

The report provides information about the measures taken by Armenia to ensure its accession to the European Union, an analysis of compatibility of the legal framew0rks of the EAEU and the EU (including obligations of Armenia as a member of the EAEU and obligations deriving from the accession to the EU), information about legal mechanisms bound to prevent the risks stemming from Armenia’s decision to enter into the EU, and an evaluation of possible consequences of suspending the application of the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty to Armenia.

The report comprises information about measures taken by Armenia and aimed at joining the European Union, the review of compatibility of legal regimes in the EAEU and the EU, legal mechanisms called to prevent risks arising in consequences of the decision of Armenia to become the EU member-state, and assessments of possible implications of the EAEU membership suspension for Armenia.

Specific statements include:

Armenian Membership In The EAEU

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan do not wish to see Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU, however, the status of Armenia in the EAEU gives rise to questions in the light of Yerevan’s steps aimed at joining the European Union.

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have the right to consider the suspension of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU until a referendum is held in Armenia on remaining in the EAEU or joining the EU.

Armenia’s Preparations To Join The EU

Armenia has not informed either the Eurasian Economic Commission or the EAEU member countries on its efforts to converge its legislation with the EU law. The fulfilment of these requirements needed to enter the EU by Armenia violate its obligations towards the EAEU.

Yerevan passed an ‘EU Integration Act’ in March 2025 to formally endorse and start the legislative process for European integration. That was followed by a high-level bilateral summit in Yerevan in May 2026, launching new infrastructure, transport, and energy initiatives. In addition, the EU provided a €270 million financial package running from 2024 through 2027 to boost socio-economic stability, and another €30 million in assistance through the European Peace Facility and the deployment of an EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) on Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan.

Suspension From EAEU

EAEU customs controls and taxation will be put in place towards Armenia if its EAEU membership is suspended.

In fiscal terms, at present, Armenia’s main international trade position is as follows:

In other words, Yerevan is looking to replace its total trade with the EAEU with trade with the EU – a bloc with whom its actual total trade is 2.5 times less, and whose production costs are far higher. This would have inflationary impacts on the Armenian consumer. For example, Russia currently supplies Armenia with 99% of its wheat. Under the current EAEU agreements, that is imported duty free and costs on average, around €204 per tonne. 

Although the EU has responded to Armenia’s overtures by saying it would reduce tariffs on 80% of Armenian goods, there remains the price differential due to higher production costs. If Armenia joins the EU, it will import European wheat, where the current average price is €245, based on December Euronext Paris wheat futures. That commodity alone would see a price increase of 20% to the Armenian consumer. It is a pattern likely to be repeated across multiple commodity channels including other agricultural items as well as energy supplies.

The report also contains some impact analysis, stating that Armenia’s GDP would decline by 15.6%, inflation will grow by 14.9 percentage points, and consumption would decline by 14.6%. Armenian exports to the EAEU would decline by about 40%, while exports from the EAEU to Armenia will halve. The natural gas price for Armenia would be likely to increase by 69% from US$177.5 to US$300 per 1,000 cubic meters. The total trade turnover between Armenia and the EAEU would decline by 55.6%.

The next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, at which they will discuss Armenia’s possible suspension within the EAEU, is due in December.

What Happens Next?

The EAEU’s report and the pending Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in just a few weeks – which could announce an Armenian suspension – will be met with considerable reactions in Yerevan and Brussels. Yerevan has already stated in would hold a referendum on joining the EU, however this is unlikely to be organised in time to meet the December deadline. The political debate in the country will intensify – not dissimilar to the UK media frenzy and politicking over the Brexit debate – which also involved the EU. An increase in anti-Russian (and EAEU) rhetoric can be expected to increase, while increasing rhetoric about the benefits of being part of the European Union will intensify – even though Armenia is landlocked and does not possess a border with the bloc.

A scenario where Armenia leaves the EAEU to join the EU appears to be both fiscally perilous and logistically problematic. The key will be a referendum to allow the Armenian people to decide – with a full-scale media war being waged within Armenia if a decision to hold one is announced. The claims and counterclaims will be full of misrepresentations and deceit – potentially amusing but deadly serious for Armenians. Yerevan would be intensely targeted by Brussels as a consolation prize for the EU’s failure to inflict a defeat upon Russia in Ukraine.