Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did not attend an Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana in May

The prime ministers of Russia and four other members of the Eurasian Economic Union published a report on Tuesday, effectively clearing the way to suspend Armenia’s membership. The report claimed that without the backing of the EEU Armenia’s economy would be devastated.

Armenia’s decision last year to pave the way for Yerevan to explore membership in the European Union has prompted the backlash from Russia, which was joined by Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, in publishing the report. The more than 70-page document also calls on Yerevan to hold a referendum on its aspirations to join the EU.

The report also claims that while Armenia would suffer massive economic losses in the event of its suspension from the EEU, the effect on the other member states would be almost insignificant.

The report said that in the event of Armenia’s suspension from the EEU, Armenian goods would be treated like those of any other third country, with customs declarations, controls, and duties. Armenian product certificates would no longer be recognized, and suppliers would have to be re-approved. Armenian workers would lose their free access to the labor market, as well as their medical and social coverage. Transport permits would be needed, rail tariffs would rise, and Armenian companies would lose equal treatment in public procurement.

The most significant effects could be in the energy sector, and would impact Russia’s delivery of gas to Armenia, thus forcing a significant price hike.

“If the Republic of Armenia diligently fulfills its EEU obligations, it will be unable to meet the obligations associated with accession to the EU,” the report said. “Conversely, fulfilling the obligations undertaken for the purpose of joining the EU would entail a violation of its EEU commitments.”

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government or political allies did not immediately react to the report. Pashinyan has repeatedly rejected the Russian demands for the referendum followed by a Russian ban on imports of Armenian agricultural products. Russian officials have warned of further sanctions against Yerevan, notably a sharp rise in the price of Russian natural gas supplied to Armenia.