Elijah Novak 

Staff Writer 

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Kyrgyzstan, a clash occurred between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the possibility of a referendum in support of Armenia integrating into the European Union, reports OC Media. President Putin said such aspirations would directly oppose Armenia’s current place in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Russian-led economic bloc that includes several post-Soviet states. 

This clash was the Armenian government’s most recent move to signal its desire to move away from its previous Russian-dominated foreign relations. This suggests Armenia is moving away from a Russia-dominated foreign policy toward a more diversified, multipolar one. Yet, why now, and what does this indicate for Armenia’s future? 

Since Prime Minister Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party’s victory over Pro-Russian Parties in June, Armenia’s long-term relationship with Russia has changed, reports Carnegie REC. For years, the Armenian-Russian alliance was held by the promise of security guarantees on behalf of Moscow, but those guarantees have faltered before. 

In 2023, Azerbaijan launched an offensive, annexing the Armenian exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and has since held it. Despite Russia’s security commitments in the region, Russian peacekeepers did not prevent Azerbaijan from taking control of the territory. The subsequent exodus of more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians provoked widespread anger toward Russia in Armenia and contributed to growing doubts about Moscow’s reliability as a security partner, reports the Washington Post. 

The unmasking of Russian security guarantees as limited and exception-laden has since raised several issues between the two states. Armenia’s openness to a more multipolar world view outside Russian dominance is clearest in its recent desire for the Russian subsidiary, South Caucasus Railways, to sell its maintenance rights to a third-party nation. South Caucasus Railways has held the rights to the network since 2008 and holds a 30-year contract with a possible 10-year extension, but the rail line’s condition illustrates the difficulty. The outdated rail, with areas in need of major maintenance, is not being managed properly, and international investors are hesitant to invest in Armenia as a logistics hub because of its rail network’s ties to heavily sanctioned Russian Companies, reports OC Media. 

So what is Armenia’s future? Prime Minister Pashinyan has indicated that “in the near future,” Armenia will hold a referendum on EU integration. The European pathway has also found support from the Union itself. Recently, the EU dropped 80 percent of the tariffs it had on Armenian goods, displaying Brussels’ support for strengthening ties between the Union and Armenia, reports CEPA. 

Tightening ties with the United States has also been a tactic Prime Minister Pashinyan has used to challenge the previous mono-alliance worldview. He openly supports the TRIPP, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, negotiated in 2025, with a heavy focus on economic and logistical infrastructure buildup across Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Armenia’s desire to diversify its finances and investments is fueled by its support for Trump’s peace plan in the Caucasus. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are signaling a shift away from a foreign policy guided by security guarantees and toward economic cooperation and development, according to Foreign Policy. 

Recent tensions between Armenian and Russian leadership have raised renewed questions about the future of Russia’s military presence in Armenia. In September 2026, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia had never formally requested the withdrawal of Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri, while stating that Armenia would not object if Russia itself decided to withdraw the base, reports JAM News.

Despite its growing engagement with Western partners, Armenia has expanded defense cooperation with China. In September 2026, the Armenian Defense Minister met his Chinese counterpart to discuss the future of the two nations’ military and defense relationship. The meetings included talks with leading defense industry officials and suggested possible new supply pathways, Armenian Mirror-Spear reports. Rather than a straightforward replacement of Russia with China, these developments reflect Armenia’s greater effort to diversify its defense partnerships as it reviews its long-standing reliance on Russian military structures.

Armenia’s foreign-policy shift signals a new period in the country’s attempt to navigate towards a more multipolar region. Its navigation and opening to the world, away from a Russian-dominated sphere of influence, offer challenges and obstacles for the region and the future of the country.

—