Azerbaijan is consistently increasing its strike force. I emphasize not the defensive abilities, but the offensive ones. The sharp increase in strike power not only aims to make irreversible the new status quo formed in the region, but also aims to make irreversible the significant violation of the military-political balance in the region in favor of Azerbaijan.
This gives Azerbaijan the opportunity not only to become the number one regional actor, but also to the concept of “peace on the terms of the strong”, which was spoken about more than once by the President of Azerbaijan and other officials.
Georgia, as a part of the new configuration, is also not without a part, but Georgia is not only not ready, but due to economic and other interdependences, as well as due to its relatively weak military-political situation, it cannot be a competitor on the one hand, and on the other hand, it cannot form a tandem with Armenia for now, taking into account Armenia’s current priorities and aspirations to achieve peace on the terms of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
What is left for Armenia to do? There are two scenarios here.
1. Try to develop defensive and offensive capabilities with asymmetric steps, integrating high technologies with the army, get a technological army, establish a diplomatic balance in the region, forming political and military cooperation networks (Greece, Cyprus, Iran, India, Ethiopia, France, Georgia, etc.) and approach the establishment of a regional military-political balance, which will bring forth the “peace based on the principle of justice and equality” formula.
2. Adapt to the existing situation and turn from a regional actor into a regional transit zone, without significant opportunities for sovereignty.
The formula “Peace on the terms of the strong” is formed and implemented at the expense of the sovereignty of the weak. The rest is only at the level of narrative reversals.
If you want real peace, then you have to establish balance, the rest are fairy tales for people with childish thinking.
Political scientist Ara Poghosyan
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