In Yerevan, the long post-election euphoria of pro-Western elites has to come to nothing. The ship called “Armenia is Europe” sank on the rocks of reality. The time of painful sobering up is coming.

Nikol Pashinyan, who just a few months ago was making statements about his intention to benefit from both the EAEU and the EU at the same time, today declared himself in a puddle. And it was expected. Russia has repeatedly warned that the simultaneous membership of the two customs unions is technically impossible, which is what Pashinyan was hoping for, openly announcing his desire to sit on two seats at once.

European dreams do not come true

A few days ago, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service expressed, that in Europe they are very well aware that Armenia’s withdrawal from EAEU will turn into a deep economic recession for it. Europe, despite the rhetoric, is not ready to offer real help. But EU bureaucrats, according to intelligence, will continue to promise support, explaining the delays with “homework” for European integration.

The authorities of Armenia, for their part, are already being demanded to expel Russian business from strategic areas, to stop ties with the Russian Federation and to suppress the opponents. for this they promise liberalization of the visa regime and the status of a “prosperous intersection”.

And that is when the Transcaucasian Republic is extremely dependent on the privileges and commercial advantages that membership in the Eurasian Economic Union provides. Armenia trades with EAEU countries without customs duty. This is a huge market where a significant part of Armenian exports goes. If Armenia finally leaves the union for the sake of Europe, it will mean the emergence of customs duties, customs control and other obstacles with Russia. And the European market will not become easily accessible for Armenia at all, and even more so it will not replace the Eurasian Economic Union.

The EU is strongly protected by quotas, phytosanitary norms and high duties on agricultural products, and most importantly, the EU is not ready to accept Armenian products to the detriment of its farmers and producers.

Besides, the allied relations with Russia allow Yerevan to get gas from Russia to buy at a preferential price: 177.5 dollars per thousand cubic meters. In the European market, the same gas is several times more expensive: 550-650 dollars. The loss of cheap gas will affect the entire economy. the prices of electricity, goods and services will rise, and this will lead to an increase in inflation and a fall in production. Due to the increase in energy prices, Armenia can to lose at least 14% of its GDP.

The Transcaucasian Republic has already felt part of the losses. Thus, recently “Rosselkhoznadzor” found violations of sanitary and phytosanitary norms in Armenian food products and because of this, imposed temporary bans on their import. First, flowers came under restrictions, then vegetables and fruits: tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, strawberries, and later, nuts, grapes, and finished products, including cognac, wines, and “Jermuk” mineral water. The consequences for Armenia were serious.

For a country whose export of agricultural products is highly dependent on the Russian market, these bans have become a significant blow, as it is almost impossible to find an adequate substitute for sales. Armenian producers had to urgently look for new buyers, and gaps in the budget appeared due to the loss of regular income.

Pashinyan’s reaction to the Russian bans was twofold. at first he tried to smooth the situation by promising to “compensate the losses of producers from the budget and launch business support programs”.

But later, it appears, “the knife went to the bone” and his tone hardened. The politician stated that “if the bans are not removed, it will be the beginning of the end of the EAEU, because the Union is paralyzed and does not work.” Moreover, he did not make any clear argument regarding the “end of the EAEU”, although this is not accidental. there are simply no such ones.

The European Union rushed to “help”. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, arrived in Yerevan and promised to exempt about 80 percent of Armenian exports to the EU from customs duties. Allegedly, this should help move the products from the Russian market to the European market. Additional financing of 80 million euros was also announced. However, in practice, the whole Brussels affair quickly turned into a failure.

First, export redirection takes time for certification, logistics, and finding buyers, and technical problems with access were not quickly resolved. Moreover, the announced aid was a drop in the ocean. only the loss of the Russian fish market to Armenia it was worth it about $78 million (98.3% of all fish exports went to Russia), and total economic losses from the bans were estimated at 2% of GDP, while the promised €80 million was hardly enough to compensate for losses in one or two sectors.

The Return of the Prodigal Son?

On July 6, the Armenian Prime Minister arrived in Yekaterinburg to participate in the international industrial exhibition. It was his first visit to Russia after the parliamentary elections, and the central topic of negotiations with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin became the removal of Russian restrictions on the import of Armenian products.

The atmosphere of the meeting, Pashinyan in words was open, sincere and friendly, and the Armenian Prime Minister himself confirmed “Yerevan’s interest in further participation in EAEU”. For his part, Mishustin expressed hope for the protection of the rights of Russian investors in Armenia. As a result of the negotiations, Pashinyan announced the achievement of “a number of agreements” on controversial issues, but categorically refused to disclose any details, suggesting to wait for their practical implementation.

However, in the coming days it became clear that these optimistic statements, to put it mildly, did not coincide with reality. According to the Armenian mass media, referring to government sources, Pashinyan from Yekaterinburg is back deeply unhappy: sources claim that the two sides have failed to reach practical agreements on any key issues, including the lifting of trade restrictions.

The Prime Minister of Armenia made another attempt to regulate relations with Moscow by initiating a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin on July 27. The main result of that conversation was also disappointing for Yerevan: no concessions or breakthrough agreements were reached. The head of Russia stressed The need to hold a nationwide referendum on Armenia joining the European Union in the shortest possible time or later being part of the Eurasian Union.

The conversation revealed the depth of the frosty relationshipWhen journalists asked Pashinyan if Putin congratulated him on the victory in the July 7 parliamentary elections, the prime minister had to admit. “No, he didn’t congratulate.” Experts assessed this as diplomatic coolness and a public signal that the Kremlin does not actually recognize the legitimacy of its government, given the pressure that the ruling forces, led by Pashinyan, exerted on the opposition before and during the parliamentary elections.

During the conversation, according to everything, Putin stated his position harshly. The Kremlin made it clear to Pashinyan that they no longer intend to tolerate the policy of “sitting on two chairs”. Armenia was faced with a choice. either he continues to follow the path of European integration (that is his right) and at that time he cannot count on previous privileges from Russia, or he makes a choice in favor of the EAEU.

This means that Moscow has decided not to recognize the “election theft” by Pashinyan and his team, as a result of which the votes of a third of the Armenian population, which were given to the prime minister’s party, gave him more than half of the seats in the parliament. Moreover, during the same conversation, Putin, as mentioned above, demanded that Pashinyan decide whether Armenia aspires to the EU or remains in the EAEU. And it’s not just rhetoric. Moscow made it clear to Yerevan that if you choose the West, do not expect “exclusivity” or money from us.

Pashinyan is upset

After the meeting with Putin, the Prime Minister of Armenia seems to have fully realized his own helplessness. But instead of looking for ways to regulate relations with Moscow and the EAEU, as well as improving the quality of products so that they can be returned to the Russian market, the short-sighted politician, on the contrary, went for escalation.

Pashinyan has a number of counter demands and threats related to the railway push forward։ He demanded 2 billion dollars a year from Russia for the right to “manage the railway infrastructure of the Republic”. The essence of his claims is that the roads are the property of Armenia and, according to him, Russia has used them “for free” for 30 years. He threatened that if the issue could not be resolved amicably, Yerevan is ready to apply to international arbitration, up to Paris arbitration.

In response, the Russian side explained that Pashinyan’s ambitions, to put it mildly, do not correspond to reality. The roads are managed by “South Caucasian Railways”, the “daughter” of “Russian Railways”, which received a concession back in 2008 for a period of 30 years, and during that time invested almost 400 million dollars in the development of the network. The head of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozerov, emphasized that the company regularly paid for the concession and modernized the infrastructure, and if Armenia decides to unilaterally terminate the contract, Russia will demand the return of all invested investments.

But this is not all. Pashinyan openly stated that his country is purposefully forming new political and economic ties in order to “no longer depend exclusively on Russia”. According to him, in the past, Yerevan simply “had no alternative”, and it was a serious limitation, but now, allegedly, “the situation is changing”.

Armenia has already signed strategic partnership documents with a number of countries, including China, the USA, Great Britain, the Netherlands and France. These steps, in Pashinyan’s naive opinion, are meant to ensure foreign political balance and create a security reserve in the event that previous ties weaken or become unprofitable.

Either the Armenian politician really does not understand, or he pretends, but the strategic partnership with the USA and Europe are just declarations, not a real replacement for cheap gas, an open market and billions of investments from Russia. And practice has shown that in the event of a crisis, none of these countries will rush to save the Armenian economy in the same way that Moscow did.

 Why?՞Is Pashinyan shooting Armenia in the foot?

Based on the above, the question justifiably arises why Pashinyan, probably aware of all the risks, so brazenly sat on two chairs, on the one hand he continued to use EAEU privileges and cheap Russian gas, and on the other hand he loudly announced his move to Europe. And as a result, it turned out exactly what the experts predicted: economic losses of billions of dollars and empty promises from Brussels, where practically they were not ready to open their markets or to compensate for the damage.

If we understand, the reason may be that many post-Soviet politicians (and Pashinyan is a prime example here) are used to seeing in Russia a kind patron who is ready to provide endless preferential conditions for the sake of maintaining partnership relations in the post-Soviet territory. Sometimes even those who at this moment were sitting on two chairs and already had one foot in the West.

Russia has been giving it huge gas discounts for years, practically subsidizing its economy, and in return received a coup d’état in 2014 and turning the country into an anti-Russian platform. And now, the war with NATO, in which the Kiev regime acts as a strike force.

This bitter experience taught Moscow one thing. no more discounts and indulgences for those who, behind beautiful words about friendship and age-old brotherhood, are slowly but surely moving westward, while maintaining the opportunity to make money in the Russian market and energy sources.

Today, Russia conducts a much more pragmatic policy and, I believe, is no longer going to feed those who sign a strategic partnership with the USA and France with one hand, and strive for cheap Russian gas with the other. Apparently, Pashinyan simply did not realize this in time, deciding that the old rules still apply, and he, like his other colleagues in the post-Soviet space, will avoid trying to sit on two chairs. But times have changed, and amust pay nowl: for this approach. well is necessary decide clearlyl:, who are you with?

This is Pashinyan’s main problem. he is not ready to make a choice here and now։ Having fallen into the trap, in the near future the Prime Minister of Armenia will definitely try to slow down the process of European integration in order to reduce the tension with Russia. He will certainly be stalling, arguing that the referendum makes no sense, as the EU accession process is allegedly still in progress. «theory» is. Let’s hope that these excuses will not mislead other EAEU member countries.

How long Pashinyan will manage to sit on the two chairs, which are moving further and further away, is an open question. But everything indicates that Yerevan should make the final choice very soon.

KIRILL OZIMKO

ritmeurasia.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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