Satik Seyranyan’s guest in the “Pressing” program is Suren Sargsyan, an international scholar and head of the “Armenian Center for American Studies”.

The important theses of the interview are below.

• TRIPP is just a constituent part of the global geopolitical, strategic project, which will pass through the territory of Armenia. In other words, we are dealing with a global project, the goal of which is to export the resources of Central Asia, Turkmen gas and all possible resources of different states through the Caspian Sea and then through the South Caucasus to Europe. And this is of great strategic importance.

Naturally, the project also has an economic component. In fact, it bypasses China, Russia and Iran. In other words, the main idea is for the United States to have a path of influence that bypasses its main adversaries or competitors.

• This direction has been in the strategic projects of the United States for a long time. In order to properly understand the situation and this project, one must also look at history. Along with the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the situation in the South Caucasus began to intensify, the United States tried in some ways to gain influence in a region where it had never been present.

There is a transcript of a very interesting episode from the late 1980s that I read in the declassified archives of the US State Department and also included in my book: when the President of Turkey Turgut Özal and the President of the United States, George Bush Sr., were discussing the emerging or just beginning war in Nagorno-Karabakh (the war had not yet started, that is, it was the end of the 80s, the beginning of 88). And there is a very interesting document where the president of Turkey directly convinces the Americans by saying: “Let’s try to give Karabakh to Armenians, take Syunik, Meghri, displace the population and give it to Azerbaijan. in this way, the conflict will be settled, and we will have the opportunity to pass all the resources of Central Asia, bypassing Russia, through the territory of Turkey to Europe. And in fact, Europe will have its gas and oil future dependence not on Russia, but on Turkey, I am also your strategic ally, etc., etc. In other words, that project was still there at that time. The Karabakh problem didn’t exist yet, that is, it wasn’t like the conflict already existed, and they didn’t know how to get around it. Turkey offered that scenario to the United States at the highest level. It has been discussed, and its documents are already declassified in the archives of the State Department (I also covered it in detail in my book).

The first Artsakh war happened, Armenia won, Russia was more active, the United States was not able to gain such influence as it is able to do today. In other words, these processes have gone through a very long historical course. That idea, which today is called TRIPP, or, as Azerbaijan and Turkey call it, “Zangezur Corridor”, was there from the very beginning, even in the “Goble Plan”. In other words, this idea is not new, it’s just that the Americans have never been this close to its implementation and implementation, although it has been considered as a possible option during all administrations. 

To remind: Turkey directly calls the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” the Great Turan, which will unite the entire Turkish world.

• It is very important, against whom the Turkish world should unite. The Turkish world in this region can first of all unite against Russia in terms of reducing its influence (especially in Central Asia) and also against China in order to counterbalance China as well. In other words, from this point of view, this is one of the elements of geopolitical competition.

For the United States, it is naturally much more desirable that any project under the influence of its strategic ally, Turkey, can be used against curbing the influence of Russia and China. This is a very simple geopolitical project, the logic of which stems from the interests of both the United States and Turkey. I don’t see anything to be surprised here, yes, that’s right.

Iran’s position and possible threats. Why didn’t Azerbaijan accept Iran’s offer to connect with Nakhichevan through the territory of Iran?

• The problem is, under whose influence will that road be? Azerbaijan thinks: why should it be under Iran’s influence or depend on Iran, if it can have a much more active and faster connection with Nakhichevan through Armenia, and the influences on that road be its own?

Yes, of course, it is in the interests of both Turkey and Azerbaijan that it is not dependent on Iran, but that the road passes through the territory of Armenia, because Armenia is much more dependent on them than Iran can ever be. This is the first.

Secondly, this economic project in the South Caucasus becomes a project of the strategic presence of the United States. And, by the way, that American data center will be one of the closest American projects to the border of Iran, just a few hundred meters away from the state border.

It turns out that you are creating a road under Iran’s nose, bypassing Iran and creating a project that will be under American control. Naturally, this cannot but worry Iran, because during this war, Iran said very clearly: “No matter how friendly the state is, if my territory or borders are threatened, and there is an American presence there, I will hit those points.” And so he did. In other words, all this can become a legitimate target for Iran. I will not be surprised if Iran’s strategy is built just like that.

To remind: the word near Hrazdan, in an area of ​​about 200,000 square meters Firebird AIof and is about the AB factory, a data center created in collaboration with the global technology company NVIDIA.

The distance of the city of Hrazdan from the border with Iran (by air and road) is as follows:  in a straight line (air distance), it is about 270-280 kilometers to the south, reaching the southernmost part of the Armenia-Iran state border (Syunik Marz, along the Araks River).  By road, depending on the chosen route (mainly on the Yerevan-Meghri M-2 highway), the distance is about 330-350 kilometers, which takes about 5 hours to cover by car.

• Russia’s participation in TRIPP and possible Washington-Moscow agreements.

From this point of view, we should remember the statement made by the head of “Russian Railways” a few days ago, who gave a number: about 400 million dollars. When you make such a price, what is your goal?․ or you say: “if you want us to leave, compensate this much”, or “it can be our investment in the project, use our infrastructure”. Why not? And here, the agreement will naturally have nothing to do with Yerevan. Washington and Moscow will come to an agreement, telling Yerevan․ “This is how it has been decided, Russian participation will be this much.”

I think this can also be discussed during the Russian-American contacts, because now they are trying to find common ground in various directions. By the way, both of them should now at least have a so-called “success story” in some direction, and I do not rule out that this can also be discussed, so that Russia also has its participation and contribution in this process. 

To remind: In response to Nikol Pashinyan’s statements, General Director and Chairman of the Board of “Russian Railways” Oleg Belozyorov said that “Russian Railways” (RZD) consistently and fully fulfills its obligations under the railway concession agreement signed with Armenia. “Thanks to the concession, Armenia received a modern railway system, and the budget of the republic was freed from the costs of its restoration and maintenance. “South Caucasian Railway” CJSC has never paid dividends, and all profits have been directed to the development of the railway,” said Belozyorov, noting that the Republic of Tajikistan intends to continue to maintain the conditions of the railway concession with Armenia, and in case of a change in the conditions or termination of the concession, the company has the right to expect the return of the investments made. He added that in 2008-2025, the total volume of investments made at the expense of own revenues of the Republic of Tajikistan and “South Caucasian Railway” amounted to about 396.3 million dollars.

• I don’t think that Washington and Moscow will agree that the Russians should participate in TRIPP, and Armenia will say: “No, you should not participate.” TRIPP is not about Armenia at all, a small part of the whole project will pass through Armenia. And if there is a decision that it should be, I don’t think that Armenia can be against it in any way.

Most important here are American calculations․ Do they want the Russians to be involved or not? Here, I think, they will also calculate whether it is more beneficial for Russia to be involved or whether it is more beneficial for it to be an adversary and try to work against it. They will calculate, understand which is more logical, and move in that direction. 

• Trump is trying to somehow separate Russia and China, to work very actively with the Chinese side. And in fact, they are working quite actively, trying to cooperate in different directions. It seems to work. They have put the thorny issues aside and say: “OK, let’s not discuss thorny issues, but cooperate where we can.” In other words, they don’t make the same mistake of going on the path of confrontation. Of course, Trump criticizes Biden for that very reason, saying that your policy mistake was that you brought it to this point, and now I have to try to carry out the opposite process. 

• Kazakhstan is under the very serious influence of both Russia and China. Now, as a matter of fact, when this road is in place, regardless of Russia and China, he begins to breathe alternative air. Additional “pipes” appear, through which it is able to take its goods and resources to Europe, bypassing Russia, because now it is completely dependent.

On the other hand, it should be taken into account that China has very actively entered Central Asia and acquires all these resources as a manager, owner (ports, gas, oil, whatever is possible). Here too the United States has a say․ “Okay, since you’re taking the infrastructure (because I can’t invest that much there), then I’ll take the roads you have to get it all out.”

In other words, in the global competition, everyone is trying to gain influence somewhere and move forward. That’s what the project is about. this is a very sharp example of geopolitical competition, where it can be seen whose territory the infrastructures pass through and under whose influence. 

• And what does Armenia gain? It is important to understand Armenia’s biggest omission. It is that if there is no TRIPP, what will be its alternative? Let’s say TRIPP didn’t happen, Trump resigned tomorrow, left, or was impeached in November. What happens then? If that American project is not there, Azerbaijan will come and say: “give me my corridor”․ He is not going to give it up, isn’t he?

In other words, have they prepared for that scenario, if the Americans are not there?

The second scenario․ the Russians can come and say: “You know, since TRIPP is not happening, in line with our agreement and arrangements of November 9, we want to be the one ensuring the security of communications there.”

In other words, Armenia does not have any kind of alternative. This is a very serious diplomatic and foreign policy omission. Any alternative (be it through China, Iran or any other state) was simply not created or considered by the RA authorities. They talk about Europe, but Europe is not an alternative either (Pashinyan said in his own words).

Azerbaijan and Turkey announced. “We’re going to take it and we’re going to manage it.” Well, even if it is in our sovereign territory, but they will be both the guarantor of security and the operator, and they will do what they want. Because this is of vital importance for them, not only for economic, but also for geopolitical and Turanian purposes. 

• The only state that could be a factor there and have a significant presence is China. But, naturally, Armenia has not done any kind of work with China, and we don’t have a “Plan B”, which is the most dangerous thing. 

• External support for Pashinyan in the elections was evident even from the steps taken before the elections. Let’s take the same post of Trump, in which he expressed his support for the authorities of Armenia. It was a very unusual thing, because he usually gives such support to a candidate for congressman, senator or governor. Of course, it is also done from the point of view of the interests of the Republican Party, when the so-called “full endorsement” format is used, which is an accepted practice in America. 

All that support from the outside world (from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Britain) all came to Armenia. It was open support for Pashinyan․ beyond that, there is simply no support. It is another matter that, even after all this, they could not overcome the threshold of 50 percent․ this is a topic for another discussion.

In other words, we clearly see which states they support, and we see which states they support against. This is also a very simple geopolitical competition. And here we remember the famous speech of the third president of RA, Serzh Sargsyan, when he said: I did not lose to them, I lost to bigger forces.

Everyone sees which foreign forces support the Armenian authorities, naturally, within the framework of their own interests.

America has decided that this man (Pashinyan, ed.), who is now the head of the country, must do it until the end.․ they did not trust other political forces and provided direct, open support. Even many experts (including an American one) say that this was just a process of meddling in Armenia’s internal affairs. Even the Americans wonder how the president of one country can openly support the head of another country. For example, when Putin asked questions about pro-Russian forces, it raised a lot of noise with accusations of meddling in internal affairs. 

• There has been a change of places. Until 2018, the West supported the opposition (with various methods: grant programs, political support), and after 2018, it started supporting the government and, on the contrary, did not support the opposition. This is very clear. And returning again to the saying “I did not lose, but I lost to greater forces”, we see that the whole logic and competition is about this. 

• If the Americans somehow withdraw, Russian influence will increase on both sides, and Russia will have to advance its interests by saying: “We have a signed statement according to which I must be the guarantor of the security of those communications, my armed forces and special services must guarantee security.”

Naturally, it will be much more convenient for Iran than the presence of the Americans. There will be an opportunity for Russia to return to the region.

There is an interesting pattern here․ It is typical for Russia, as a global superpower, to maintain its influence in the region by playing on the presence of conflict. When there was an Armenian-Azerbaijani (Nagorno-Karabakh) conflict, Russia could keep both sides on its course.

Americans behave differently. They say: since there is no conflict, let’s gain influence over that absence, live together, earn money, trade, etc. These are different but typical tools of global players. So, if the United States is not there, Russia can accept the previous documents as a legal basis and say that it will provide security.

• The Israeli factor and the interests of the United States. it should be taken into account that the interests of Israel and the United States are so common in many directions (both in the Middle East and in other processes) that there is practically no big difference. Of course, Israel or the Jewish community in the United States has a very strong influence, but there are also moments when there are conflicts or disagreements between them (like, for example, during the Iran deal under Obama, when Netanyahu came to speak to Congress). Nevertheless, the interaction and common interests between the United States and Israel are extremely large. 

• Regardless of whether Israel acts or the United States, their interests in this region are absolutely identical. For example, if we look from Iran’s point of view, the latest international developments were about this. For the first time in history, the United States was involved in a direct, full-scale war against Iran with very specific targets. According to some reports, Israel had conveyed information to Washington that the elimination of the spiritual leader would lead to a popular uprising and the overthrow of the government. However, the American press later wrote that those calculations were wrong. So, they are interconnected by various economic, political, military and geopolitical threads. 

• The role of Konstantin Sokolov and the haste of the USA.

The factor of Konstantin Sokolov is very remarkable. He was born in Russia, but moved to the United States at a young age, obtained citizenship, created successful businesses, and today has become one of the main donors and financiers of the MAGA movement. And that movement is not only about Trump. it is a global movement that will continue under his successors.

Sokolov already has a business presence in Armenia (including Teghut, shares in Amio Bank, etc.). He has an excellent understanding of the local business environment, American politics, knows how to quickly connect with decision makers in Washington and bypass the bureaucratic hassles of the State Department.

All this is done with great haste, because time is very limited. With less than two years left in Trump’s presidency, all of this must be completed before he (or his teammate and successor) can personally cut the red tape. Why are they in a hurry?․ because this at the moment Russia and Iran busy are own with problems and: they are not can full obstruct, and american bureaucracy as much as possible minimally is be reached 

To remind: On August 5, Nikol Pashinyan received Arye Lightstone, Senior Advisor to the US Special Envoy for Peace Missions, and Konstantin Sokolov. Lightstone conveyed to Pashinyan the congratulations of President Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his re-appointment as the Prime Minister of Armenia. They discussed issues related to the implementation of TRIPP, expressing confidence that as a result of solving technical issues, the practical steps taken in this direction will be even more visible in the near future. 

It should be noted that, according to the international media, Aryeh Lightstone is an American rabbi, a diplomat, who earlier, during the first presidency of Donald Trump (2017-2021), served as a senior adviser to the US ambassador to Israel, David Friedman. He was one of the key architects of the Abraham Accords and a special envoy for economic settlement issues, and also headed the Abraham Accords Peace Institute. Also authored the book “Let My People Know” (Let My People Know) about peace processes in the Middle East. He is involved with the team of Steve Witkoff, the UN Special Envoy for the Middle East, and participates in the Gaza post-war management and development of regional programs.

Lightstone is closely associated with Donald Trump’s son-in-law and former senior adviser Jared Kushner. Various international investigations and media outlets (such as The New York Times and Middle East Eye) state that the Lightstone-led team reports directly to and is accountable to Jared Kushner in the context of Gaza’s post-war realignment and programs. They worked together as far back as the first administration on Middle East policy and economic initiatives (including the Peace for Prosperity program). Kushner also spoke positively of Lightstone’s book covering the Middle East peace process.

According to the Financial Times, he and Kushner are among the US and Israeli officials now shaping Gaza’s post-war governance system, having previously played a key role in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. This failed humanitarian initiative has contributed to dire situations in Gaza.

• American delegation and regional interests.

Lightstone also had a key role in the “Abrahamic Agreements” (which aimed to regulate relations between Israel and Arab countries). (Last year, Steve Wittkoff, the senior advisor and assistant of the US President Donald Trump, spoke about the fact that Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to join the Abrahamyan agreements).

These people know the region perfectly and understand how the American and Israeli interests can be accommodated in these processes. Naturally, this causes great concern in Iran, but at the same time, this shows how important this global project is for Washington and Israel.

• Naturally, Azerbaijan needs this project very quickly, because it drastically changes the status of Nakhichevan, making it an important geopolitical factor. Before, it was an economically isolated area, living on subsidies and loss, and now, through this connection, it is possible to bypass Iran. In the presence of the TRIPP project, Azerbaijan will no longer have the need to reach Nakhichevan through the territory of Iran, which is the reason for their great haste. 

To remind: yesterday Ilham Aliyev made quite serious statements in the interview about the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” and their plans, stressing that they were the ones who promoted and moved this process.

The most remarkable. According to Aliyev, Azerbaijani specialists conducted analyzes in the territory of Armenia and determined the specific locations where power transmission line supports can be installed. This means that the Armenian authorities have so far hidden the fact that specialists came, inspected the site and performed certain works.

Also noteworthy is Aliyev’s observation that if the Metsamor nuclear power plant is closed, Armenia may face a serious energy crisis, and in this context he is trying to act as an additional source of energy.

We should also not ignore the statement of Hikmet Hajiyev, the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan (in an interview with CNN Türk), where he stated that the opening of the corridor is already an imminent prospect, and intensive diplomatic and physical efforts are ongoing. Rauf Agha Mirzayev, an expert on communications issues from Turkey, also said that the Armenian side promised to actively start construction works by the end of the year, and, according to him, Armenia has already started primary blasting works in different areas.

In addition, Aliyev noted yesterday that the European Union is also interested in participating in the Nakhichevan section of the Azerbaijani railway. 

• The issue of the Armenian nuclear power plant is extremely important. We need to look at who benefits from its closure and who doesn’t. In fact, the operation of the nuclear power plant in Armenia is ensured by the Russians. If it is closed, Armenia will lose its energy independence and become completely dependent on Azerbaijan. This will become an additional lever of Azerbaijani influence on Armenia. Because of the energy issue you don’t have your own and you become dependent on someone, that dependence will be transferred to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Therefore, it will not be surprising if they try to remove the nuclear power plant from Russian influence or simply close it, saying:

Here, too, one should look at whose interests all this corresponds to, and many things will become clear.

Now, when the Europeans are interested in Nakhichevan, the question arises whether it is due to the fact that the USA left the Europeans out of the TRIPP project, and the latter are trying to act in another way, through Azerbaijan.

• Today, Europe and the United States no longer have the former strategic importance for each other, because Trump has fundamentally changed the logic of foreign policy and the architecture of universal defense. But the Europeans look a little further. They hope that the next US president will have different approaches, and they are already trying to prepare for working with the new administration.

In the end, where will the goods and energy resources coming from Central Asia go through the South Caucasus?․ to come are Europe։ 

• Opponents of Trump in America often claim that he is too enthusiastic and fond of dictators, citing the Turkish president or Kim Jong-un as examples.. “As many dictators as there are, you have very good relations with them. You say they are my friend or a good colleague.”

• The role of Azerbaijan and the pragmatic interests of the USA in the oil sector. The oil factor became extremely important for the United States, especially after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused the price of gasoline to rise sharply. This caused a huge public outcry against Trump and his team, forcing urgent action to lower prices (especially on the eve of tense House elections and the upcoming presidential race, especially in big states like California). Therefore, the attitude towards Azerbaijan stems from pragmatic American interests. 

• Armenia’s interests and risks in these processes. The only positive side is that Armenia is able to join the global trade network by using the opportunity to send goods through that 41 kilometer section. However, the main question is to what extent the Armenian authorities (or future authorities) can effectively use it and ensure product circulation. Having opportunities is one thing, but being able to take advantage of them is quite another. On the other hand, all this involves very high risks: What?–that things gives we are, but opposite receivable real the benefits yet unclear are hand we are brings a lot more hard opponents this process դեմ՝ in: face Iran and: of Russia.

It is not clear whether Azerbaijan will have the opportunity to transport and accumulate weapons or military resources through this route (be it railway or other communication).

• As a specific example, there were recent reports that Silk Way airliners (which are billed as civilian but are known to carry mostly weapons) are flying through Armenian airspace to and from Nakhichevan. If they transport by air, why shouldn’t they also want to transport by land? Iran has the same rights with Azerbaijan over its air and land areas. if they allow it there, why shouldn’t they allow it here?

• Despite the abundance of anti-Russian statements and sentiments at different levels, it is a fact that no concrete actions or steps against Russian vital interests have been taken by the Armenian authorities. Armenia continues to be a member of CSTO and EAEU. The Russian military base continues to be located in Armenia. The largest taxpayer organizations of Armenia are with Russian capital or directly Russian (the same gas, copper-molybdenum sector, nuclear power plant). From this point of view, nothing has changed. Therefore, there are many words, but there are no specific anti-Russian actions.

• Obviously, Armenia cannot become a member of the European Union soon. Even those states that have been candidates for a long time or have strategic importance for Europe and should have become members much earlier than us (who are just taking this path) are not EU members. Becoming a member of the European Union is a very complicated process. in addition to complying with European legislation, it is necessary that all member states, indiscriminately all, give their consent. We have to go a long way for that.

• Armenia’s membership can be considered not as a full integration, but in the same format as in the case of Britain, not being a member of the EU and not making political decisions, being in the same economic zone and having the same trade preferences. This option could be more realistic, but as long as Armenia remains a member of EAEU, this approach is practically impossible. Previously, it was possible to sit on “two chairs” and simultaneously be a member of the EAEU and sign the Comprehensive and Extended Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the EU. Today, however, the situation has radically changed. Russia and Europe are literally enemies in the context of the Ukraine conflict. Russia demands a clear orientation: either with itself or with its enemies. On the other hand, the Europeans also draw a line, offering at most economic preferences or visa liberalization, but never membership. 

• The Armenian government will do everything to convince Russia that there is nothing against it, it will remain in the EAEU, it will remain in the CSTO. I think Pashinyan will go this way. He will try under any circumstances not to aggravate relations with Russia. Russia is now very sensitive in all respects, not only to Armenia, but also to any state that has closer relations with the European Union. Even on the issue of Turkey, Russia is now very sensitive, and it is understandable, because they are warring states, and both Europeans and Russians have this sensitivity.

• Americans are not as sensitive about this issue because they are not directly involved in the conflict, they are not involved in a direct way or on such a scale of support. So, I think he should try to restore relations with Russia and bring them into a more logical line. I think so in order to keep the power, and…

• Kazakhstan does not escalate relations with either Russia, the United States, or China, understanding the destructive consequences of conflict with superpowers. In the case of Armenia, the situation is incomparable, because there is no strong Chinese balancing factor, and the risks are extremely high.