In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest is the chairman of the “Democratic Alternative” party, political scientist Suren Surenyants.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Why did I say that Nikol Pashinyan will bite the paws of the Russian tsar? There are several scenarios of the development of events today. One scenario is that Armenia ultimately wants to get out of the Russian security umbrella. This could have catastrophic consequences, given the fact that we have no alternative security guarantees, and no one intends to protect Armenia. The other scenario is that as a result of Pashinyan’s adventure, regardless of what losses we will have, Armenia’s dependence on Russia will increase. Will they tolerate Pashinyan after that or not? It is not very important. The essential thing is that this one scenario leads us to become a Turkish-Azerbaijani annex, and the second scenario will lead to the increase of Armenia’s dependence on Russia. That’s what I meant when I said it would grow the paws of the Russian Tsar.

• You see, on the one hand, Pashinyan is making excuses against Russia, saying that Armenia has an alternative, on the other hand, he is calling Putin, asking him to ease export restrictions. It’s a strange situation, isn’t it?․ if you an alternative do you have, what me please Putin. You say so? getting rid of we are russian from the yoke we increase sovereignty and: etc, and: etc. If: the alternative you don’t have, what me going that of adventure and: Armenian:–russian relationshipare leading to current turbulence. There is a crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, what compensation programs are offered by the West and the European Union? In other western centers, the importance of compensation programs is zero. They are ready to pay Pashinyan so much that his anti-Russian striptease will not stop.

• In the EAEU, political decisions are made at the highest level, the presidents of the EAEU member states. It is hard to imagine that Lukashenko’s prime minister or Putin’s prime minister will have to make a strategic decision. But Pashinyan, if you noticed, even agrees to lowering the bar. for example, he also went to Yekaterinburg because Putin refused to meet him. He should have at least met with Mishustin, hoping that he could convince Mishustin to solve some problems. The meeting with Mishustin was a complete failure. Putin has already repeated 2 or 3 times very clearly that either a referendum is held and the issue of this dilemma is resolved, or Armenia, in fact, may be left out of the Eurasian integration structures, with the resulting consequences.

• According to economic calculations, 250,000 citizens will become significantly poorer due to Nikol Pashinyan’s adventurous steps, attacks against Russia and restrictions by Russia. This adventure of Nikol Pashinyan will cost our country 4-5 billion dollars. Who will compensate? If he has a way out of the situation, let him describe it, so we can understand it, or not by empty talk. 2018-2020․–in Nicole: Pashinyan arrogant posture Azerbaijan with in relationships set was this the same conflicting the model. Don’t pcs email threatens was, says էր՝ eif Aliyev continues like this, I will publish something shocking, and Azerbaijan will explode from within… now he is fulfilling all of Aliyev’s demands.

• Let me tell you how Russia will suffer. Or who takes more damage?․ բնականաբար՝ Armenia. Now as much as you want՝ Swing a sword against Putin… Russia is raising the stakes. It is understandable, because in asymmetric relations, the stronger side always tries to raise the stakes, under which it can get out.

• No recognized analyst in the world can make a confident statement about what the new world order will be like, or how long this period of turbulence will continue due to the Iran conflict, the Russian-Ukrainian war and many other factors. Yes, the aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations is not excluded, but the American-Russian deal is also not excluded… Under these conditions, how reasonable is it to place all eggs in one basket and, in fact, to deprive Armenia of the existing security system and any possibility of maneuvering?

• Maybe Pashinyan has fallen under some Ukrainian and Western propaganda, according to which Russia is already losing, losing its positions and influence… First of all, Russia is not defeated in the Russian-Ukrainian conventional war. What is described in the Western mass media, which creates a propaganda background, is not true. Yes, they have a certain influence on the war front from the side of Ukraine, but they cannot affect the balance of the conventional war itself. This is one. Secondly, Nikol Pashinyan already made such a calculation in April 2022.

At that time, you remember, don’t you, that a Russian tactical or other retreat began from the outskirts of Kiev, near Kharkiv, etc. Here, Nikol Pashinyan and his supporters held a memorial service for Russia every Friday and… the policy of changing the strategic course of our country began at that very stage, because, according to their propaganda, “Russia was defeated, had gone…” and so on. A calculation was made․ Nicole: Pashinyan email 2022 on April 14, he boldly announced from the podium of the National Assembly that some colleagues suggested to him (obviously he meant, for example, the bureaucracy of the European Union and the countries of the European Union) to lower the bar regarding the status of Nagorno Karabakh, which would bring security guarantees for the people of Artsakh and help to avoid a new war.

That programmatic, so-called speech of his was the basis of the Prague quadrilateral declaration of October 6, 2022. What was that about?․ that russian the mediation to refuse and: Armenian:–azerbaijani regulation in the process new status:–quo to confirm about was. That what brought․ the people of Artsakh did they get it? safety guarantees. Of course not. From his deal in Prague to the complete destruction of Artsakh, it took only 1 year, it wasn’t even 1 year: blockade, then ethnic cleansing, etc.

So, first of all, the talk about the death of Russia is greatly exaggerated. Yes, Russia has also found itself in a rather difficult situation as a result of its strategic wrong decisions, which does not mean that the Russian Empire is being destroyed, Russia is leaving the South Caucasus, etc. Otherwise, for example, the leader of our rival state, Aliyev, would not bother to regulate his relations with Russia through continuous talks with Putin. Now they both declare that they don’t have any problems, right?

Secondly, can someone explain to me what benefit the weakening of Russia can bring to Armenia? I brought the result of negotiations on European platforms, specifically regarding Artsakh… Now the situation is the same․ Pashinyan says the same again: let’s lower the bar in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, agree to that Turkish-Azerbaijani supremacy, they will give us security guarantees, which will help us to cut the umbilical cord we have with Russia and thus live in a peaceful environment. Once we saw the value of the security guarantees they gave. 

• When the chief envoy of Armenia in the relations with Turkey is elected by Armenia as the president of the National Assembly, it is a clear message that the Turkish direction becomes the priority in Armenia’s foreign policy.

• Aliyev’s assistant Hajiyev revealed the details of his visit to Dilijan in the last 3 days in many extensive interviews with the Turkish press. And I am really sure that there was also a shadow meeting between Pashinyan and Hajiyev in Dilijan, because Hajiyev speaks more confidently about the upcoming actions of the Armenian government than the government itself. Hajiyev very confidently says that the stage is near when the process of constitutional changes will begin in Armenia. How does Hajiyev know all that? Minister of Justice Galyan says: from open sources, but from open sources, you and I, as RA citizens, are not familiar with the draft Constitution, nor do we know the road map by which that draft will become a text adopted by the National Assembly, will be put to a referendum, and we have no idea how it will happen. We can come to several conclusions․ or Nicole: PashinyanHe told Hajiyev: I will hold the referendum, I will make the changes you want: “it is not your problem, I will carry out this process the way we held the elections”, let’s say: “I will solve the issue of 5-6 mandates with blackmail, violence, repression”, or I will change the legislation in such a way that bypassing the National Assembly, I will do it in a referendum. 

• In Hajiyev’s interview, it is clear why they are in a hurry, they also have a limited window. as long as there is turbulence around Iran and it is a convenient opportunity, as Russia is stuck in the Ukrainian war, it is a convenient opportunity to extract concessions from Armenia.

• With TRIPP, in fact, the issue of anti-Iranian attitude is being resolved, or they are trying to create an institutional, intractable crisis in the relations with Iran. And Russia… the policy of weakening Russia’s presence here is already so obvious: it is the issue of the railways, it is the story that a trade war arose in the relations with Russia… as if there was no peace, right?

• The war in Ukraine constrains Russia not in relations with Armenia, but in relations with Azerbaijan. And Moscow understands very well that a change of power in Armenia at this moment will greatly affect Russian-Azerbaijani relations. To put it mildly, Azerbaijan will not be happy if Russia tries to change the government in Armenia. And Russia, immersed in the Ukrainian war, cannot afford the extravagance of ruining its relations with Azerbaijan in order to solve some problem in Armenia. This is obvious:

• In fact, it is Azerbaijan that weakens the Russian influence in the region. But Aliyev conducts politics so skillfully that he does it with the hands of Nikol Pashinyan. Nikol Pashinyan has neither that subjectivity nor that political weight category. Obviously, Aliyev takes advantage of all anti-Russian initiatives from 2022, but it was done through Nikol Pashinyan.

• Nikol Pashinyan, in fact, is facing 2 referendums. Any serious country that communicates with Armenia and has a question of vital importance will demand a referendum from Pashinyan. Aliyev set a precedent for this by demanding to change the constitution of Armenia, Russia is also applying it now. Be sure, any western country, if it has a vital issue with Armenia, will demand a referendum. 

• This speaks of the decline of subjectivity. In addition, Pashinyan’s speech is so lacking in credibility that all foreign partners want to deal with the Armenian people, our society. This is a form of institutionalization of external coercion. This is how they treat countries without subjectivity, and don’t think that Pashinyan will manage to digest it so easily.

• The fate of Armenia will not be determined by Nikol Pashinyan’s statements, but will be determined by the developments taking place around Iran and the developments taking place in the theater of the Russian-Ukrainian war. If these two conflicts go towards stabilization and settlement, not only the fate of Armenia, but also the political fate of Pashinyan will be decided as a result of them. That is why both he and Aliyev speed up the processes.

• In response to Putin’s proposed referendum demand, they say: don’t interfere in our internal affairs. In other words, can Aliyev interfere in Armenia’s internal affairs by demanding to change the RA Constitution, and Putin has no right? Moreover, Russia has a legitimate right to it, because, in the end, this referendum also affects its foreign policy, it concerns the only integration project in which Russia has a key role. Would you be satisfied with the rather literate decision of the Constitutional Court of 2024, which had very clearly justified with legal categories that the reference to the Declaration of Independence does not cause territorial ambitions towards other countries and neighbors. Nikol Pashinyan tried to avoid the compulsion to hold a referendum, didn’t he? In fact, the decision of the Supreme Court of RA had zero value for Azerbaijan. If Nikol Pashinyan thinks that he can play Russia, he is terribly mistaken… The Russians may not care whether he will hold a referendum or not, they are ultimately interested in the outcome of the policy, whether Armenia will continue this policy or not. 

• Can you explain to me how Iran can currently allow TRIPP under the parameters of the document signed on August 8 of last year, when, for example, under the Islamabad Interim Ceasefire Document, which was signed between the United States and Iran, Iran has documented pursuit of the weakening of US influence in its neighborhood? TRIPP will not be implemented. Moreover, the possible decision of the Constitutional Court or the National Assembly are not shields that can rid TRIPP of potential targeting of Iran. Starting from February 28, Iran has targeted all countries where American infrastructures exist. All the Gulf countries were targeted. Even drones appeared in Nakhichevan and the territory of Turkey. The only area that has remained completely unaffected by the consequences of the Iranian war is the Republic of Armenia. The first is where you don’t have an American or Israeli presence in your territory, as is the case with Azerbaijan, for example, and the second is where the Russian 102nd military base is located. 

• TRIPP cannot become a reality with the parameters that were signed. TRIPP can only work in an edited state. the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation should also be taken into account in that project. 

• The Secretary of the Security Council of Russia visited Iran and later hosted Larijani, his colleague, in Russia. They reaffirmed at a high level that the border established by the Treaty of Turkmencha of 1828 is unchangeable, and this is a very important circumstance. In other words, Russia and Iran have a harmonized and very uncompromising position on this issue. 

• If you become a satellite of the interests of the United States, the territory through which that TRIPP will pass will become a legitimate target for Iran.

• As you know, I was fundamentally against giving up the mandates of the opposition, because my expectations from this parliamentary opposition, no matter how much I criticize some of their actions, have not changed. However, at the moment, they are the most important forces from the opposition field, they are represented in the parliament and have a very important mission: to protect the political and cultural identity of the Republic of Armenia.

• And, in order to generate a movement outside the walls of the parliament or on the street, the main mission of the opposition in the parliament is to organize resistance.

• Strong parliamentary resistance can become a trigger for a popular movement when they try to force us to change the Constitution.

• There is a second scenario, for which the opposition should also be ready. let’s not rule out that in a year Nikol Pashinyan will try to go for new elections. 

• This is not the first parliament, nor the last, and if the parliamentary opposition is not at the height of efficiency, a window for the formation of a more radical opposition will open very quickly, be sure. Do you know why? Because the country is facing an ontological problem, can’t we sit and wait, for example, until a young person (I am not personalizing this or that faction) finds time to stand up for himself? There are specific problems. If in standard situations it takes 2-3 years for any opposition to manifest itself to submit a bid for the future, today 4-5 months will be given. 

• Today, one month has passed since the decision to arrest Gagik Tsarukyan. During this period, we are entering the 4th stage of the three-phase repressive actions against him. Unprecedented bespredel… Yes, the word “unprecedented” is appropriate. In the electoral history of Armenia, there has never been such an unprecedented fraud, when they simply steal the votes, as they say, by making a dry, undisclosed decision that this party should not have a faction in the National Assembly…

• The repressions against Tsarukyan have two clear goals: one is the political isolation of him and his large team, and the second is the suppression. They work very intensively in both directions. They are especially zealous in their drinking. And now the arrest or hunting of the directors of his companies has begun. Pashinyan has set the task of taking as many hostages as possible in order to increase the pressure on Tsarukyan. Obviously, we are dealing with political retaliation. The problem is political, not legal. And, therefore, the problem should be resolved politically. 

• It is necessary to consistently wear down the teeth of Nikol Pashinyan’s repressive machine. The shaft of that repressive machine will be crushed. 

• When did the restraining order of Samvel Karapetyan start to change? At the time when Karapetyan’s supporters managed to create some system, and that system became a headache for the government. This is the only way to deal with this. 

• Pashinyan’s power is maintained with the external support of Azerbaijan, Turkey, the United States, the European Union, Israel, and through the bureaucracy and law enforcement agencies, which have been turned into a repressive machine, exclusively, and the state budget and taxpayers’ funds are spent. 

• Do not think that only Russia has put Armenia in front of a dilemma, Russia is simply doing it in its own way. By the way, Russia is very gentle with its strategic ally in its sphere of influence. For example, could it not have occurred to someone sitting in the Kremlin to carry out an operation against Maduro?

• Clowns like Alen Simonyan are enough for one mandate. He was too obvious a clown to have any high position in the 2nd quinquennium. … Hayk Konjoryan is very actively following the path of Allen Simonyan. Those people are Nikol Pashinyan’s hostages. He regularly corrupts them with compromising documents, gives them a certain status, and then they become useless because of that status. 

Details in the video

—