Satik Seyranyan’s guest in the “Pressing” program is Davit Ananyan, a member of the management board of the “Wings of Unity” party, the general director of the “DS-EY Consulting Group” company, the former head of the RA State Revenue Committee (SRC), candidate of economic sciences.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Perhaps, both the government and the National Assembly are two bodies of parallel importance. From a political point of view, naturally, the No. 1 podium and the No. 1 theater of political processes is the National Assembly.

• The importance of the government lies in the fact that the economic processes, what the government has to do and the determination of our future largely depend on its activities. However, politically, the important stage is the National Assembly, also due to the fact that the tactics of our two titular opposition factions is based on uniting the National Assembly and the street.

Due to the parallel conduct of the political struggle in these two dimensions, the National Assembly becomes an extremely important platform.

Our country is facing economic challenges and we may actually face great losses. Therefore, the government has work to do economically, and the National Assembly has work to do politically.

• After any political process, a vacuum situation is usually created in the political field. Those forces whose expectations were partially or completely not met, or were subject to fiasco, face certain complications in terms of political activity.

But those forces that see evolution in everything and did not enter politics in the classical sense, but rather came to signal specific actions and processes and become their participants, should try to dictate the agenda in the extra-parliamentary environment and closely follow what is happening in the parliament.

• It is very important how our opposition figures will position themselves, and whether they will limit their activities only to polemics, asking questions and presenting bills in the parliament. It is still too early to make clear assessments, but yes, during these few days, apart from the process of electing the president and deputies of the National Assembly, sensible political statements and speeches are being made de facto step by step. Among them, certain program provisions presented by Narek Karapetyan are forward-looking and will put everything in its place like a litmus test.

• The people should be occupied in both the political and the good sense of the word, so that it does not suddenly go backwards. We see that the public does not actively participate in political processes, and that seemingly high participation – 59% registered as a result of various manipulations – was actually around 40-49%. We record that the expectations of public participation were overestimated by all of us, therefore, the results of political teams and bodies were also overestimated.

• Those agendas are not merely the problem of the parliamentary opposition, but should be formed as a result of the united work of the opposition field. The extra-parliamentary forces should dictate, prompt, support, etc. with their activities. In other words, there is a huge potential for concerted work here, but we must do everything to overcome the culture of fragmentation that has been formed for years and be united.

• Our opposition MPs who were in the National Assembly of the 8th convocation, as a matter of fact, seemed to have something to say in half, which they continued in the first sessions of the National Assembly of the 9th convocation, as if trying to erase their unspoken words. In other words, in terms of mutual positioning, adjusting and rethinking the reverential approaches, there are things that they will probably do now and return to the clear targeting of the agenda items you and we mentioned.

• Those agenda items should not be limited to a mere question-and-answer format, but concrete bills should be presented. Those bills should be subject to public discussion, to which not only non-parliamentary political forces, but also public figures will be invited. Those persons who have a certain weight in public perception and have something to say should all participate in these discussions. As a result, it will turn out that the opposition will take to the National Assembly not just the bill authored by the titular parliamentary opposition, but a concrete agenda document that has already been refined by public discussion, purified and achieved by public solidarity.

• Nikol Pashinyan’s statements are another form of manifestation of adventure, which will have consequences. When he says that the EAEU has been paralyzed, in the next sentence he declares that we have no intention of leaving the EAEU. All this is presented in such a way that it is always said in a footnote, a footnote, in the margin: but we have never set such a problem to leave the EAEU, because he is very well aware that leaving the EAEU is very painful.

• At one time, when he tried to play the “European Union or EAEU” dilemma, he did so because he used anti-Russianism and the direction of going to Europe as the main resource of political reproduction. And while using that resource, the European bureaucrats, in fact, gave him carte blanche and helped him in everything to reproduce here, because they saw in him a very important actor of anti-Russian sentiment, or someone who seems to have a high loyalty to the European Union or Euro bureaucrats.

• In fact, Europe has no economic interest in Armenia. It is an illusion, and we must openly tell everyone that Armenia is not very interesting for the European Union economically. If we look at Europe as a consumer market of 450 million with high solvency and intelligence, do they look at us from the point of view of serving that market? Do they expect that high-quality agricultural or industrial products should be produced in Armenia, which should be consumed in Europe? On the contrary, in the process of European integration, they look at the countries as additional consumption markets for the products that are produced in Europe itself. Therefore, in terms of standardization, Europe sets such strict standards that it will take a long time for your industry and agriculture to comply with them.

• Armenia should not have economic illusion or economic priority regarding Europe. Europe is only interested in political expectations. And the political expectation is to be anti-Russian and to tear Armenia from Russia in this region and bring it to the path of European integration (because in the case of Georgia, it was not fully successful). And European integration in our case essentially means turning into a protectorate region of Turkey. This is what Europe wants։

• What does this “Russian-Armenian” war, which Nikol Pashinyan instigated, mean? He does not want to leave the EAEU, but he has a political order and within the framework of that order, he plays another role. However, he probably doesn’t have a great desire to break away from Russia and EAEU, speaking among us, because he has a good idea of ​​what it means for Armenia. These are just political curtseys.

• We have witnessed, haven’t we, that he also told people in political processes. “I was pretending to be crazy so that I could escape.” Yes, when he published that recording (Serzh Sargsyan published, ed.), he was the one who said that, right? Maybe now it’s not a madman, but a joke, I don’t know. Now he, like a trapped sparrow, imagine that he is in a situation where the trap was a little big at first, but now it is getting smaller. Russia on this side, the European Union (more precisely, the Euro-bureaucracy) on the other side slowly squeezed him, and he went and found himself in the trap he set. If he used to have hesitation, he went to Russia and said what was expected of him, then he went to Europe and said what Europe needed, now that hesitation has reached almost zero, he has no more hesitation.

• Both Europe and Russia have put him in front of the fact: choose, make a choice. Now he sees how painful that choice is for him. This is what he is thinking about today, and what he says about anti-Russianism is, in fact, a game. He is playing, he doesn’t want to give up yet, but I have no idea if his anti-Russian sentiment is real. it’s just an illusion։

• In the Russian Federation, in many cases, our “Russian partners” can make decisions on the spur of the moment, rather than being the result of a far-reaching, drawn-out, long-term plan or another step. They just used a very strict toolkit, introducing restrictions. They say that they don’t have a problem with the Armenian people, but the problem is with this political force. Now, you have a problem with the political power, but you use such a harsh toolkit, the beneficiary of which is the Armenian people, that is, we will feel it on our skin.

Now the peasant, producer, brandy producer, etc. feel it. But we understand, don’t we, that Russia clearly knows that it is not just a market for Armenia, but an export market that accepts system-building products (agriculture, processing industry, etc.). And this means that serious problems may arise in marzes and regional economies.

• I accept that, like all countries, they have their own interests, but I expect that as a result of our activities, their interests should match or at least take into account our interests as well. For that, however, we must have adequate power.

• Yes, Russia has warned several times, but talking is one thing, and the harsh tools and irreversible consequences used by Russia cause anti-Russian sentiment among the public. Of course, that is precisely the goal of the West. In other words, Russia is directly serving the interests of Euro-bureaucrats with its actions today. Do you understand, they should realize that with these actions, they have raised the wave of anti-Russian sentiment among the public to an unprecedented level, which has never happened before? After all, in the social polls commissioned by the European Union from time to time, the number of those who approve of European integration has reached 51-54%. This year alone, at least two such polls have been organized, and thereby also contribute to the rise of the wave of anti-Russian sentiment։

• Today, Europe is not ready to finance our losses from leaving the EAEU. Europe, even when it says it will accept 80% of our agricultural products, adds․ “First, what I said will only be valid for 2 years, second, I will subject your products to strict standardization, and I will apply my authority to impose restrictions on certain agricultural products.” In other words, he sets such conditions, and the whole process is planned for about 2 years.

• The EU says: “I will give you 52 million euros” (of which 34 million have already been given in June, according to the data of the European Commission), and in July it was announced that a grant of 200 million euros will be given to implement the procedures of the European Commission channels, which has an investment potential of up to 2 billion. But whatever happens and becomes a reality, all this will not be able to compensate for the huge losses that we will have in the conditions of leaving the EAEU.

• As a result of leaving the EAEU, our losses may reach tens of billions, depending on, for example, how the gas tariff will be revised. Russia always says․ “You know, we supply you with gas on preferential terms for 177.5 dollars (for 1000 cubic meters), while in Europe we sell the same gas for, for example, 600 euros.” It’s clear, isn’t it, that we can’t buy for $600, and it’s also clear that Russia probably won’t sell to us at a discounted price anymore either.։

• He also shows the potential danger of gas price increase (from 177 to 600) what will happen to gas and electricity produced from Iran or other sources. Electricity, products of greenhouse farms and all those products in the production of which gas is used as a raw material will become more expensive. When you take all this into account, you understand that the damages caused by the increase in gas prices alone can reach tens of billions of dollars.

• Therefore, we should not have any great financial expectations or illusions from the European Union. First of all, Europe is not going to finance these losses. It can implement certain mitigating measures, but it cannot, does not want and is not going to compensate our damages. Moreover, Europe has not even made any official statement that it is ready to give us a candidate or any other status. Even at this year’s summit, Armenia was presented simply as a “close friend of the EU”.

• Europe’s demands today are purely political, and from the economic point of view, Armenia is not very interesting to them, and they are not going to take any serious economic burden on themselves.։

• No, he will not leave the EAEU, because he clearly understands that leaving the EAEU is really a very hard blow for the country, and as a result of that blow, he simply will not be able to keep the steering wheel in his hands, he will lose power. Because now, if certain subsidies are given to this or that sector to shut up and silence, tomorrow will not have that opportunity. Armenia does not have the resources to quickly reorganize, to find another market or another energy supplier country instead of Russia.։

• We all imagine, don’t we, that Russia supplied 82% of the gas. Iran could theoretically become an alternative, but initially pipeline capacity, quality and transportation systems will pose problems.

• We must not forget that Iran ranks second-third in the world in terms of gas reserves, therefore, there is gas, but there must be subsystems both with them and with us. In other words, Iran will not be able to be a full alternative in the foreseeable future. I was saying that. Does Iran have the potential to become an alternative? Yes, now no. Calculations show that in the medium term, years later, Iran will have the opportunity to supply us with gas at a price not less than 230-240 dollars (for 1000 cubic meters). this will be the best possible price instead of today’s 177.5. Therefore, we see that there is no alternative that will immediately replace Russia in foreign markets, energy and other areas.

• We forget one more thing․ in addition, the nuclear power plant is operated within the framework of the contract with the Russians, “South Caucasus Railway” is a subsidiary of the “Russian Railways” company, which we gave with a concession. A certain political debate has already been opened around it. In addition, the entire gas supply system, the railway and the nuclear power plant are subsystems controlled by Russian state organizations, that is, there are also serious issues here.

• You cannot sever relations with EAEU and at the same time maintain neighborly relations with Russia. Breaking with EAEU means breaking with Russia. Everyone should understand this.

• On the other hand, Russia also says․ “You can’t continue to stay like this, it’s enough to do this tightrope walk.” But Russia also talks to Armenia with an ultimate attitude. When the government representing your country has no face, everyone can speak to your country in the ultimate language։

• The United States of America talks to the government, but it also talks to the opposition. In other words, the delegates or the people they send to Armenia are sent to see what is happening. Different employees of the embassy or those with different roles meet both with the opposition and with the government, not publicly. Of course, this is precisely the collection of information in order to have a certain understanding of the country, an accurate understanding. Yes, it is information gathering. And Russia is the only country that always works only with the government, it has never worked with the opposition։

• Of course, Kazakhstan is able to have a certain dual role, but do not believe in life that Kazakhstan will become a participant in any process of dismembering the EAEU, no, never.

• Pashinyan’s patrons are trying to blow up the EAEU, but under Pashinyan, Armenia will never apply to leave the EAEU, on the contrary, he has always said that we want to stay in the EAEU. He himself would not be against a referendum, and with the referendum, for example, the people would come out and say that we want to stay in the EAEU. It is a scenario. He would not mind that the leaders of the EAEU countries present their report in December on what kind of procedures they can implement to leave Armenia out of the EAEU. If EAEU decides to withdraw Armenia, it will say until the end that Armenia itself does not want to leave EAEU, but you decided. Therefore, what he is doing now is a game. He is playing, he will never leave EAEU in his life, Armenia will never show initiative, Pashinyan will not do that. Will Armenia be kicked out of the EAEU, will it become persecuted in its face? What’s wrong?, that is his calculation.

• Pashinyan creates controllable chaos from his point of view. A manageable chaotic situation, the country does not care. The country’s interest and his personal interest do not go hand in hand. He is promoting his personal interest, he does not know where the interest of the country is.

• If 50,000 Indian migrants come to Armenia, can you imagine what kind of demographic collapse it could cause for your society? We, our country, with its internal systems, control systems, is not ready to accept any migrant. And we assume, don’t we, that those migrants who come do not come from a good day, that is, those people had problems with education, were subjected to violence, those people are poor, have no property. In other words, the migrants who are now moving to another country are trying to find good living and social conditions for themselves.

When Russian businessmen came to Armenia, we also considered it positive to some extent, because above average businessmen working in the field of information technology are coming, and also a certain vitality was created in terms of the public, right, it won’t be the same. There will be people who have a low educational level, have no education, and are of a low social class, who will have certain demands from us in our country.

I am more concerned now that we simply do not have internal control systems.

Armenia is a hospitable country, different nations can come, they want to live, let them live, but there must be control, demographic control, risk assessment. In any case, we, as a state, have not yet settled our internal issues, we have not yet finalized the problems related to our poverty, we have not yet finalized our border issues with our neighboring countries, we have not yet neutralized the risks related to statehood and we are accepting migrants.։

• All of us should unite around our only national institutional structure and His Holiness. It’s obvious, there’s nothing to say here, and yes, we should all announce it, talk about it. Even in your wildest dreams, you would not have imagined that 10 years ago someone would have said that, you know, the time will come when His Holiness the Pope will be involved as an accused in the case. Imagine if someone had said that phrase 10 years ago, and they would have said, “This is crazy.” We have reached it. This is an order.

• In Turkish traditions, “keshish baba” is a phenomenon characteristic of evil forces, and yes, with their state and educational systems, the Armenian cleric is considered evil for them. Now, as a matter of fact, I also imagine that there will be some European bureaucrats who will be among those patrons, because the Armenian Apostolic Church is represented behind the scenes as a sect, including a European one. Therefore, we still may not know the full range of real customers, but yes, this is a custom implementation that also coincides with his personal interests.

• We, the followers of the Armenian Apostolic Church, all of us who consider ourselves Armenian Christians, should not see this as an act against the Armenian Patriarch, but a blow to our independence foundations, a deliberate blow, where the Armenian Apostolic Church is the only institutional structure left with its 1,700-year history, and which has always kept us, has kept our face, and is one of the most important pillars of our independence, if not the most important. at the moment. I call on our society, our brothers, our sisters, to be attentive, to follow the development of events, and we should all stand around the Armenian Apostolic Church, be next to it, stand as a defense for the Patriarch and our faith.

Details in the video.

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