The prestigious international rating agency Moody’s has changed the outlook of Armenia’s sovereign rating from “stable” to “positive”. The government and the Central Bank associate this review with the mitigation of geopolitical risks and an unprecedented increase in confidence in the country in the international market.

Prime Minister at the Government session held on July 30 Nikol Pashinyan highlighted the agency’s decision, noting that although the long-term rating was maintained at the Ba3 level, the improvement in the outlook has deep and fundamental reasons. Analysts justify the positive change with the significant reduction of political and geopolitical risks.

In particular, the document emphasized the decrease in the probability of a large-scale military conflict with Azerbaijan, the work being done to normalize relations with Turkey, the diversification of foreign relations and the uninterrupted internal political stability of the country.

Turning to macroeconomic expectations, the agency predicts stable economic growth of 5 to 5.5 percent for 2026-2027. It is expected that this indicator will be supported by stable domestic demand, active investments, expansion of public spending and continuous development of the service sector.

The Prime Minister reminded that since 2018 (except for 2020) against the backdrop of high economic growth, analysts were always concerned with the question of whether these numbers really increase the strength and opportunities of the economy.

“It is very important that the international authoritative structure already records that the potential of Armenia’s economy has strengthened, and this is an extremely important documentation,” emphasized Nikol Pashinyan.

The deputy chairman of the Central Bank clarified the practical significance of the decision Hovhannes Khachatryan. He emphasized that the sovereign rating has a direct impact on the terms of lending to the RA government by international financial institutions. The higher the rating, the lower and more profitable the interest rates. As an example, it was mentioned that Armenia currently borrows funds from the international market at a cost that is only 1.5 to 2 percent higher than the American global anchor rate.

According to the official of the Central Bank, this is a historically unprecedented small difference, which indicates that Armenia’s specific riskiness today has reached its historical minimum level.

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