Political scientist Suren Sargsyan writes: “How high are the chances of TRIPP coming to life at the moment?”

I have repeatedly mentioned that the Trump administration has achieved a level of activity and involvement in the South Caucasus and, why not, in Central Asia as well, which has not been achieved by any US administration since 1992.

Of course, the reason for this is not only favorable geopolitical conditions. Naturally, the fact that Russia is focused on the Ukrainian war also has its influence, as a result of which its involvement and influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have significantly weakened. The same applies to Iran. That circumstance also provided an opportunity for the Trump administration to play a more active role in this region.

However, two key factors are also extremely important here, which made this process unprecedentedly fast and effective.

The first factor: Steve Witkoff.

According to available information, one of TRIPP’s architects is Steve Witkoff. The idea of ​​connecting Central Asia with Turkey and Europe through TRIPP is also attributed to his team. This initiative has not only economic and transport significance, but also an important geopolitical component. Also important is the fact that Witkoff has a direct connection with Trump, as a result of which bureaucratic and subordination problems did not arise in the primary stage of the project (February 2025).

In turn, the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict gives Washington the opportunity to deprive Russia of its most important levers to maintain influence in the South Caucasus, the opportunity to play on the continued existence of the conflict.

The second important factor in this process is the management style of the Trump administration, which is notable for a significant reduction in bureaucratic processes, especially in the implementation of vital issues, including the use of force (it is enough to remember how quickly the problems of the Panama Strait, Venezuela and a number of other pending issues were resolved).

Decision-making processes are carried out as quickly as possible without traditional bureaucratic delays, which allows us to promptly advance such large-scale geopolitical projects and provide solutions to them.

In this context, the fact that President Trump is personally involved in the processes also plays an important role. At the same time, Marco Rubio leads not only the State Department, but also the work of the National Security Council, which contributes to closer coordination of foreign policy and national security systems. As a result, competition between different departments and lengthy inter-departmental coordination are minimized, and decision-making and implementation become faster and more efficient.

Neither Trump nor key members of his team have ever been bureaucrats. It is this circumstance that gives them the opportunity to understand how much bureaucracy complicates not only the making of political decisions, but also the implementation of them, even when they are matters of urgent and strategic importance.

In this respect, this administration is advantageously different from all previous administrations without exception. These are, of course, key, but not all, factors.

Of course, there are a number of factors that prevent the implementation of TRIPP, even in the case of investing such serious efforts, but I will address them in a separate post.”

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