The deep crisis of Armenian-Russian relations and the cessation of political dialogue, which began with the pre-election campaign of the parliamentary elections held in Armenia, not only do not resolve, but also take on new, more dangerous manifestations.

Moscow, reducing high-level political contacts, refusing official post-election congratulations, continues the strategy of economic pressure on Yerevan. The federal veterinary and phytosanitary control service of the Russian Federation, “Rosselkhoznadzor”, announced that it did not allow the sale of dairy products imported from Armenia on the Russian market, considering them unsafe.

According to the statement of the department, on July 14-21, “Rosselkhoznadzor” specialists made inspections in the enterprises engaged in the processing of milk in Armenia, which had previously received permission to enter the Russian market, based on the guarantees of the Veterinary Service of Armenia.

According to the Russian side, similar violations were again recorded during the inspections, which were also found during the inspection visits of 2023-2024. They refer to the product traceability system, the formulation of veterinary accompanying documents for raw materials and finished products, the veterinary sanitary examination of incoming raw materials, the implementation of risk management systems and the implementation of production control programs.

However, Rosselkhoznadzor’s repeated ban on the import of Armenian dairy products is not just the result of an inspection, but a logical continuation of the economic sanctions launched in April, which earlier targeted mineral waters, fish products and other agricultural products. The created situation essentially shows the complete inefficiency of the foreign policy and diplomatic steps conducted by the Armenian authorities, to put it mildly.

After the elections, the phone call initiated by Nikol Pashinyan to the Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, then the urgent visit to Russia and the pronounced “cold” reception by Mishustin, did not actually produce any results. The restrained protocol of the Russian side and the subsequent economic restrictions prove that Yerevan has not managed to dispel Moscow’s dissatisfaction or reach any serious political agreement.

Against this background, the public statements of the RA authorities become more revealing. Weeks ago, Pashinyan assured that a number of agreements were reached at the meeting with the head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin. Pashinyan did not elaborate on what the agreements were, but a stable impression was created that agreements aimed at easing the situation were reached. However, instead of the expected “positive result”, Armenian businessmen faced another closing of the doors of the Russian market. This proves that the visit to Moscow was not a strategic dialogue, but just an unsuccessful attempt to alleviate the situation, which was ignored by the Russian political leadership.

The content of Rosselkhoznadzor’s statement itself has a political connotation. The Russian agency, talking about contaminated milk or the lack of veterinary control, also directly targets the state administration reforms implemented in Armenia since 2019. Moscow has turned the EAEU technical and sanitary toolkit into a political whip, making it clear that as long as Yerevan continues its geopolitical fluctuations, economic levers will be used to exert maximum pressure.

The ban on dairy products is a direct and painful blow to the socio-economic system of Armenia. These and similar steps of the Russian side are aimed at causing a new wave of social discontent within the country, putting the Armenian peasant in a helpless situation and showing that the price of the foreign political vector adopted by the authorities is paid by the ordinary citizen.

Finally, these developments come to confirm that the “point of irreversibility” in Armenian-Russian relations has either already been crossed, or the parties are standing on the threshold of it. Moscow has put a tough dilemma in front of Yerevan: “EAEU or EU?”, and the attempts of the RA authorities to sit and maneuver in both chairs at the same time are no longer working. Without a clear strategy, without real provision of alternative markets, Armenia finds itself in an economic blockade and a geopolitical impasse.

The current crisis shows that the diversification agenda implemented in this way is not successful. The only way to protect Armenia’s economy and exporters from political shocks is a calculated foreign policy.

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