“Certainly, the launch of the Amulsar mine, the construction of a large artificial intelligence data center, and the implementation of the Trump Route project can have a positive impact on the country’s economy. They can ensure an influx of foreign direct investment, create new jobs, increase tax revenues, expand export opportunities, and stimulate the development of related infrastructure,” Manasaryan said in an interview with ARKA.

He emphasized, however, that the impact of such projects is gradual.

Commenting on Fitch’s forecasts for Armenia’s economic growth to remain at approximately 5% in the medium term, Manasaryan expressed skepticism.

“Given the government’s current policies, I view this forecast with considerable skepticism,” he said.

He stated that sustainable economic growth is impossible without increased labor productivity, expanded export potential, technological modernization of industry, and an increased share of high-value-added products.

“Sustainable growth of approximately 5% requires not only investment, but also increased labor productivity, expanded export potential, improved technological development in industry, and an increased share of high-value-added products,” the economist noted.

He emphasized that growth based primarily on consumption, construction, or temporary factors cannot be considered sustainable in the long term.

Manasaryan also addressed the issue of diversifying Armenia’s foreign economic relations. According to him, developing trade with the European Union and other countries is necessary, but this should not come at the expense of worsening relations with Russia.

“Even the world’s largest economies, despite political disagreements and sanctions restrictions, continue to maintain certain economic ties with Russia, guided primarily by their own national interests. Why should small Armenia abandon trade and economic cooperation with Russia?” he stated.

According to Manasaryan, even the implementation of several large-scale projects alone cannot ensure long-term economic growth.

“No. Even several large investment projects cannot ensure such growth. The economy must develop in a balanced manner. Only by forming a sustainable gross domestic product structure can we expect long-term economic growth. So far, in my opinion, this is not happening,” the expert concluded.