168TVof “diplomat” of the program the guest is Iranian political analyst Pouya Hosseini.

– In the immediate neighborhood of Armenia, between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, the situation has been aggravated again for more than 10 days. Tonight, the United States struck Iran again, and Iran responded by striking American targets in the region. If we consider the developments taking place in the Middle East in the context of the formation of a new world order, then the memorandum signed between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, in fact, seemed to be an attempt to contain the escalation. However, those diplomatic efforts failed. What was the reason for that failure, according to you?

– There are several options. The first is that the United States uses these negotiations to prepare for a new war. He gains a certain amount of time so that he can organize new strikes. And after every war, during the negotiations, he tries to achieve the goals that he did not achieve during the war, through pressure. When that doesn’t work, it starts military operations again in order to impose its will on Iran under military pressure and extract some concessions.

However, experience has shown that Iran did not make any unilateral concessions at all stages, whether military, force, or during negotiations. Pakistan’s negotiations are a clear proof of this, where a compromise option emerged.

Second, the United States has shown that it is not sincere in the negotiations. Twice during the negotiations, he attacked Iran, provoked a war and betrayed the negotiation process. This third time is no exception. The US is not a reliable negotiating party, and when it does not find it appropriate to continue negotiations or is not in an advantageous position, it starts a war again.

– In essence, you confirm the thesis that is actively circulating among international scholars that that memorandum recorded the defeat of the United States, in fact, that is the reason why the USA did not come to terms with the created situation.

– Yes, of course. Why are there complications, because when the United States started the war, it had a set of goals that it had planned and declared:

The first is the overthrow of the Iranian regime, the second is the destruction of the nuclear program, the third is the destruction of the missile and ATS programs, and the fourth is the limitation and reduction of the resistance forces of Iran.

During the 12-day and 40-day war, none of these goals were fulfilled. As much as they said that they destroyed Iran’s military capabilities, we see that on the 40th day, Iran responded intensely and struck military bases located throughout the region, Israel and the bases of the United States. It continues to strike now, which shows that Iran’s military forces have not weakened.

In addition, Iran was able to gain time during the negotiations to restore what was damaged. Iran has been preparing for this war for tens of years. Meanwhile, they (the USA) expected to solve the Iran issue in a few days, like Venezuela, and the plan failed. During the negotiations, they try to get what they did not achieve during the war, and made many concessions. But in the end, they advance the version that all those negotiations, even that memorandum, were a deception in order to gain time and regroup against Iran.

– Mr. Hosseini, obviously, Iran is ready for any scenario, as Iran’s high-ranking officials say. Meanwhile, contradictory statements are being made from the United States. According to you, what scenario is likely in this situation? Many experts are talking about a ground operation of the United States, although it would be, in fact, unprecedented, very expensive and impossible. There are also predictions that Russia and China will directly support Iran. What scenario do you see?․ will this expand further, or will the parties eventually have to negotiate?

– The more the war continues, the more Iran’s strength is established, because we see how many days there has been an attack on Iran, and Iran responds. That continuation is a road to nowhere for the United States, that is, it cannot take a better position in this war. Even all diplomatic and negotiation chances are closed, and they don’t have much opportunities in the military field either.

Even if they start a ground operation, they may aim to capture one or more Iranian islands, but Iran has seen its preparations there as well, and this scenario is not unexpected for the Iranian military forces.

This is not unexpected and will be more damaging to the United States, especially in terms of casualties. If until now it was an air war, then in case of landing ground soldiers on our soil, the USA will have much greater casualties. It will cause a lot of pressure inside the US against the government, senators and congressmen. It will be very difficult to develop a plan to get out under those pressures. The more the United States moves forward, the more it becomes entangled and gets itself into a dead end. If he closes all diplomatic windows and tries to solve the issues only by war, he will definitely enter a dead end.

– Mr. Hosseini, this war, as you mention, essentially transforms the positioning of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In your opinion, how will Iran get out of the war, and how will it affect its goals in the South Caucasus, taking into account how Armenia has positioned itself, what kind of foreign policy it has, and which geopolitical centers are active in the region today? How do you think Iran will position itself after these processes?

– First of all, the United States and the West, noting Iran’s new power and positioning in the region, will have to take it into account, which is very difficult for them. It is a very bitter reality for them, and the continuation of the war is due to this, because they have a hard time coming to terms with the new military and political power of Iran.

This force affects the South Caucasus as well. The United States has entered the South Caucasus in recent years and is trying to establish itself here as well, declaring that it has come to establish peace. As they were able to establish peace in the Middle East through force, they can establish it in the South Caucasus. Their rating has fallen.

All our neighbors should take into account the new realities, see who is the real guarantor of peace, who has strong positions and who has something to do in this region. If the United States establishes itself in the South Caucasus, the positions of Turkey and Azerbaijan will definitely strengthen, because they are US proxies (authorized representatives). This will weaken the positions of Armenia and Iran, which we must rule out.

– The United States is also being strengthened significantly TRIP with a commercial fund and program. The other day it became known (I’m sure you are well aware) that the head of that fund will be Konstantin Sokolov, a Jewish businessman born in Russia and then moved to Chicago, whose activities intersect with such global actors as Jared Kushner and Steve Wittkoff, who also have close ties to Israel. Does this mean that this trade route and its financial leverage will be under the indirect control of Israel or pro-Israel circles? What do you think?

– Even before the emergence of “TRIPP”, Iran expressed such concerns. The further we go, we see that Iran’s concerns are confirmed. Iran said that handing over that long-term route to the United States could be used by Iran’s enemies and against Iran.

Before the 40-day war, all Arab states promised Iran that their territory would not be used against Iran. Until the end, they said very confidently that they would not allow it, but in fact they could not resist the US pressure, and their territory was used against Iran. There is such a concern that Armenia will ultimately not be able to resist the United States.

Iran considers the US presence dangerous. Wherever they went, they did not respect the sovereignty of the given country. They did whatever they wanted in Iraq or Afghanistan. In all the countries where the USA sets foot, the independence of the given country weakens. That is the concern of Iran, about which it regularly warns.

Of course, official Yerevan assures that it will not allow the territory of Armenia or similar projects to be used against Iran. But no matter how much Iran trusts Armenia, this agreement has a third party. How can he trust the United States, when right now he is directly at war with it, and the agreements reached in the negotiations are regularly violated? From the point of view of real politics, it is difficult to trust a project that has three sides. we fully trust Armenia, but it is impossible to trust official Baku and Washington.

– Nikol Pashinyan also announced during his last briefing that he is ready to dispel any concerns. But if these statements are not enough, what does Iran expect and what is it doing so that its concerns “on the ground” with certain instruments will be dispelled?

– As time goes by, the elimination of these concerns is delayed, because “on the ground” processes regarding “TRIPP” are moving faster. Iran is very little informed about all that. For example, the latest news about the appointment of the director of the “TRIPP” trade fund. as if everything is already coming true, the new Iran finds out about it.

– In other words, according to you, there is not even a proper dialogue between Armenia and Iran on this issue?

– If Iran still expresses concern, this shows that there are still gaps, and they have not been able to fully convince Iran in this matter.

– And what does Iran expect, what is needed to be fully confident? For example, during the last press conference, Iranian ambassador Khalil Shirgholami said that mechanisms are needed to neutralize Iran’s concerns. What mechanisms are possible in such a situation?

– Look, first we can have several different approaches to this issue.

The first is that “TRIPP” is a project that provides a link between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, connecting the Turkish world. Of course, before that, that project was called “Zangezur Corridor” without quotation marks. Now Armenia says that this road is fully under Armenia’s control, and sovereignty is preserved, but the actual goal does not change. it is a link between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan and connects the Turkish world.

Secondly, if we look, for example, at the “Persian Gulf-Black Sea” project, it has become secondary in Armenia. As much as “TRIPP” is talked about, not so much is talked about that project, which is of greater strategic importance for our countries. In other words, it connects Armenia to the Black Sea, the Arab states, the Indian Ocean, India, and on the other hand, to the West. This project is more beneficial and strategically important for Armenia, Iran, India and all the beneficiary countries.

But we see that it is not talked about that much, it is not on the agenda, or if it is, it is on the 5th or 6th place. Priority was given to “TRIPP”, which largely serves the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan. That is the real concern of Iran politically. why is that so? If it was about “Crossroads of Peace”, why now “TRIPP” has become a project that is presented to the public as a project that will bring economic growth, miracles and peace to Armenia, while there is almost no action on the “Persian Gulf-Black Sea” project?

This raises a number of political, economic, as well as security questions, the answers to which Iran has not yet received.

– Mr. Hosseini, if Iran does not finally get its answers and these concerns are not neutralized, what can we expect from Iran, what will its reaction be?

– It is still too early to talk about Iran’s reaction, because Iran’s policy is neighborly relations with all its neighbors. But everything must be done so that these contradictions do not deepen.

Armenia has been a reliable neighbor for Iran for centuries, and we should not allow the relations between our two countries to be damaged due to the interests of third countries. We have to rule it out and do everything to prevent it from happening, because other forces are coming to the region to pursue some interests, but we are the ones who are staying here and will live side by side. That is why we are natural allies, and everything should be done so that contradictions between us do not remain and do not deepen.

– Mr. Hosseini, we see that the Islamic Republic of Iran is interested in the prospect of creating institutional depth in Armenian-Iranian relations. Months ago, Ambassador Shirgholami announced that a strategic partnership agreement was being developed and said that it might be signed during Pashinyan’s upcoming visit. Pashinyan’s visit, in fact, took place on another sad occasion, in the framework of which he met with the President of Iran. During that meeting, the agreement was also discussed, but, as a matter of fact, only the Iranian side constantly touches on that topic. What is the reason for this, and if this agreement is signed, what will it change in Armenian-Iranian relations?

– Of course, the establishment of such alliance and strategic relations will give a new charge to Iran-Armenia relations. But both parties should make every effort so that it does not remain on paper, but becomes a reality.

We really need to have strategic plans. For example, one of the strategic plans could be the Iran-Armenia railway connection, right around the “Persian Gulf-Black Sea” project, no matter how distant they say it is. This will ensure the strategic cooperation of our countries not for a few years, but for the next 100 years. It will increase our geopolitical weight in the whole world, and there will be a direct connection between Iran and Armenia, the West and the East.

Such strategic plans should be developed and implemented, all efforts should be made. There are plans that seem very big or impossible, but there are many experiments in the world, when such dreamlike plans have become a reality, if political will is shown. We need to develop real programs between our two countries, and the resources will be found.

We are neighbors for a thousand years, we come from the depths of history and we still have a long way to go together. The closer we can create a relationship, the more mutually beneficial it will be.

I will add one more thing. Iran is now trying to withdraw its private and state capital after the war from the UAE, Qatar and other countries that have caused problems and helped Iran’s enemies. Armenia can try to involve these capitals in economic programs, which will bring Armenia many times more profit than TRIPP. we are talking about billions of dollars. If Armenia shows such will, Iran has great opportunities for the development of Armenia. We are not saying that we should abandon the opportunities provided by the West, but we should also pay close attention to Iran.

– In your opinion, are the Armenian authorities interested in such a perspective and this agreement? What is your impression?

– It is necessary to show political will. We have always heard it in words, but we need to do it in action. There were shortcomings both on our side and on the Armenian side, but we must try to correct them, because Iran-Armenia relations have no alternative.

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