A new geopolitical reality is forming in the South Caucasus, which is increasingly difficult to explain exclusively through the prism of the traditional Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation.

The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which effectively disappeared as an independent factor in regional politics after the events of 2023, was only one of the elements of a larger process.

Today, it is about shaping a new transport, economic and political architecture of Eurasia, from China and Central Asia to the Caspian region, Turkey and Europe. In this system, Russia risks gradually losing part of its traditional positions, and the states, which were previously considered part of the Russian geopolitical space, are beginning to look for new opportunities for foreign policy maneuvers.

Azerbaijan becomes one of the key elements of that process. Until a few years ago, Baku was perceived as a state conducting a classic multi-vector policy, maintaining working relations with Moscow, developing partnership with Ankara and interacting with the West at the same time.

However From 2020 and especially after the signing of the Shushi Declaration between Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2021, the nature of regional politics will change significantly.from։ This document officially established the allied relations between the two Turkic states. However, in fact, it became the basis for deeper military-political coordination in the fields of defense, security, intelligence, foreign policy and strategic planning.

The peculiarity of the situation is that it is not only about the alliance of two states. NATO stands behind Baku–member Turkey, which has its own large-scale geopolitical ambitions։ And if anyone thinks Ankara’s ambitions are limited to Syria, Iraq or the Eastern Mediterranean, look no further. T:to the activities of the organization of Turkic states, Turkish textbooks, Ankara’s official rhetoric and how the Turkic space is consistently constructedof political, transport and economic integration system from Bosphorus to northern China n:seasons.

After the war of 2020 and the elimination of the Armenian presence in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan got the opportunity to move from solving local problems to the implementation of a much larger-scale project. It becomes a central element of Azerbaijani politics. aso called «Zangezur Corridor»the transport route that should connect China, Central Asia, the Caspian region, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, bypassing Russia.

Logistics thinkers usually reduce such projects to the level of containers, railroads, and cargo terminals. However In the 21st century, roads have long ceased to be mere transportation routes. Whoever controls communication controls the flows of capital, trade, investment, political influence and security.

If: «North-South» the international transport corridor is being built around the Russia-Iran-India canal, then «Zangezur Corridor», which is global “Mof the lower corridor» is part of, forms a completely different geo-economic axis, from Central Asia-Caspian sea-Azerbaijan-Turkey-Europe. Moreover, the transfer of a key section of this route in Syunik, Armenia, to the US potentially cuts off Chinese cargo from this highway.

In this scheme, Azerbaijan turns into not only a transit area, other becomes the key coordinator of the whole system. Moreover, it would be wrong to consider what is happening exclusively through the prism of Baku and Ankara.

Implementation of this scheme request Kazakhstan shows special interest. Officially remaining an ally of Russia and Armenia in EAEU and CSTO, Astana is objectively interested in the development of routes that will allow to reduce dependence on Russian communications.

for Kazakhstan “Mthe lower corridor» not only the export of oil, gas and uranium, bypassing the Russian territory. This is an opportunity to strengthen one’s role in the emerging system of transport links between China and Europe, to expand the area of ​​foreign political maneuver and to strengthen one’s own subjectivity.

It is no coincidence that Aliyev in Shushi’s media forum specially emphasized the strategic importance of cooperation between Baku and Astanadirectly stating that without the active cooperation of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the implementation of large transport projects in the Caspian Sea is impossible.

Such processes are of special importance for Moscow. If until recently Russia served as a natural center of gravity for Central Asian states, some regional elites are now increasingly looking at alternative development options in which Russia’s role is gradually decreasing.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to be the main and most important factor in the creation of an extraterritorial corridor through the Armenian territoryconsistent the opponent. The reason is simple. In Tehran, they understand very well that it is not about roads and railway lines. We are talking about the redistribution of the entire transport balance of Eurasia. That is why what is happening around Iran today seems very worrying.

The latest escalation in the US-Iranian standoff has shown that transportation routes are becoming a direct geopolitical battleground. targets։

The other day they came under attack «North-South» infrastructure facilities directly related to the operation of the international transport corridor. Among the targets of the attack was the Ak-Teke Khan railway bridge in Golestan province on the Gorgan-Inche-Burun line. This section provides a railway connection between Iran and Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and then Russia through the eastern branch of the “North-South” corridor. Damage to other railway infrastructure facilities in the Tehran-Mashhad direction is also reported. At the same time, the energy facilities of Chabahar and Konarak regions came under attack.

It is worth noting that the Chabahar port is one of the key hubs of the southern branch of the “North-South” corridor, which Moscow, Tehran and New Delhi consider as the basis of alternative Eurasian logistics. And this is where the most interesting begins. The less stable the route through Iran seems, the more attractive the route through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Turkey becomes. The more risks arise for the Russia-Iran-India connection, the higher the value of the “Middle Corridor”.

Aliyev’s statements about the Soviet past and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the 2026 Shushi Global Media Forum also deserve attention in this context, which show the gradual change in Baku’s foreign political identity.

When the leader of Azerbaijan tells Ukraine to never agree with the “occupation”, it is not just an abstract diplomatic formula. In the conditions of the conflict between Russia and the West, such statements become part of the strategic line.

At the same time is changing the attitude towards the Soviet period. It is increasingly presented not as a general history of the peoples of the former USSR, but as an era of loss of independence and occupation. For Russia, it means the destruction of one of the last elements of a common historical territory that has ensured Moscow’s influence for decades.

As a result, a new image is formed. The military-political alliance of Turkey and Azerbaijan is strengthening. «The Middle Corridor” is closing in the south of Armenia. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states are interested in its expansion. Iran is facing increasing external pressures.

Armenia is losing its positions and opportunities to influence regional processes, turning into a puppet of the West. And Russia remains absorbed in the Ukrainian direction.

All the listed processes develop simultaneously and reinforce each other. Basically, this is the main challenge for Russia.

A new regional system is being formed, where Azerbaijan becomes the most important element of a large-scale geopolitical project covering the South Caucasus, Central Asia, the Caspian region and a significant part of the Turkic world. Meanwhile, Baku continues to talk about partnership with Moscow, maintains working relations with Russia and tries to avoid open confrontation for now. But geopolitics differs from diplomacy in that it evaluates results rather than statements.

And the results show that Azerbaijan, under the leadership of Aliyev, is making little effort to reduce Russia’s role in the transport, economic and political architecture of Eurasia. If we perceive what is happening as a set of temporary tactical episodes, one day it can be found that the South Caucasus is already finally introduced in the new coordinate system, and the key processes in the region are developing without Russia’s participation or against its interests.

The world is changing rapidly today. Too quick to afford the extravagance of overlooking the obvious.

Grigory Yeromi

eadaily.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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