The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was in Baku and Yerevan on July 1-2, promising to strengthen ties with Azerbaijan and Armenia through financial support and joint transport and energy projects. The results of this tour certainly require a comprehensive assessment.

Among other things, The head of the European Commission announced «Economic pressure on Armenia» and assured that Brussels is full of determination to support Yerevan, more precisely, its current establishment. Although the official’s assessment is in some contradiction with the position of the Armenian authorities. No՞ that Nikol Pashinyan himself and his cabinet have repeatedly shown their readiness for further contacts with the Russian side on issues of interest to the Armenian authorities. 

According to “Hraparak” information, the RA MFA sent letters and requests through diplomatic channels to the RF MFA, asking to invite them to the “Innoprom” exhibition to be held in Yekaterinburg to discuss the problems arising during the supply of agricultural products to Russia.

The meeting with Mikhail Mishustin took place on July 6, but already from July 10, 2026, according to the information of the food safety inspection body, the export of cargo subject to phytosanitary control in commercial volumes from Armenia by individuals is prohibited. “According to the technical regulations of the EAEU, the total weight of products subject to phytosanitary control transported by individuals for personal use cannot exceed 5 kilograms.”

Still, we got a little sidetracked. The declared goals of von der Leyen’s current tour to Azerbaijan and Armenia are to support the process of normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku, to strengthen the transport interconnection and interdependence of Transcaucasia, to deepen economic cooperation with the region in general, and to support Nikol Pashinyan’s government. At first, the European Commissioner stood out in the “Land of Lights”, where he had a meeting with Aliyev on July 1.  The main topic of the negotiations was partnership in the energy sector.

by the way 4 years ago, when the EU was looking for an alternative to Russian energy carriers, von der Leyen was already visiting Baku to look for long-term supplies of natural gas from the western shores of the Caspian Sea.  Within 4 years, they have increased by 65 percent, Aliyev said, adding that ten countries receive Azerbaijani gas today.

“More than 40% of our trade goes to EU member states. For the European Union, Azerbaijan is the main trade partner in the South Caucasus. Almost 70% of the EU’s trade in the South Caucasus is with Azerbaijan,” said the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan proudly.

The guest from Brussels assured that the parties intend to deepen the mentioned course. “Azerbaijan will integrate its energy system with the EU. It will also create opportunities for the export of additional volumes of gas,” stated Ursula von der Leyen, highly appreciating Baku’s initiative on laying an electric cable between Transcaucasian republics.

Another cornerstone aspect of the relations was the problem of transport links and interconnection.

Within the framework of the Global Gateway (initiative for the development of a global network of infrastructure projects in third countries) program, the EU will allocate up to 200 million euros in grants for the development of transport, energy and digital connections in the region. Among the possible projects are railway communication through the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Nakhichevan and the development of the international sea port of Baku.

The European official announced no less Napoleonic plans in Yerevan, where he moved on July 2.

Practically all the statements of the head of the European Commission can be summed up in the fact that the EU is allegedly already fully ready to replace Russia in the region, including as a trade and energy partner. “We can redirect the products, which are currently mainly intended for the Russian market, to the EU single market – 450 million consumers.

This measure will open the door to Europe for almost 99% of Armenia’s fresh agricultural produce, as well as 90% of your exports of beverages and spirits to the EU single market. This is just the beginning,” Frau von der Leyen painted the “castles in the air”. According to him, Brussels is also full of determination to support Yerevan in diversifying its energy supply. soon a group of experts will arrive in Yerevan to solve this problem. “We have a lot of experience working in such situations.

We have gone through it in Ukraine, Moldova, we have accumulated considerable experience,” the official clarified on this occasion during a press conference with Nikol Pashinyan, who this time was careful not to make sharp contrasts between Moscow and Brussels.

Emphasizing the fact that no one in Yerevan is planning to reverse the European integration, the Prime Minister clarified that the Armenian side does not intend to worsen relations with Russia either. “We act within the interests of our country. Naturally, we do not ignore the interests of any of our international partners, but on the other hand, we cannot put the interests of any of our partners above the interests of the Republic of Armenia.”

It is quite obvious that economic and energy projects and long-term interests in that direction, which are closely related to the development of transport routes, have clearly become the main leitmotif of the tour of the head of the European Commission in Transcaucasia.. It is no coincidence that following the results of his previous visit to Azerbaijan in the summer of 2022, the head of the European Union announced his determination to increase the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor, the 3,500 km long pipeline system connecting the Caspian region to Europe, to 20 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2027.

It should also not be forgotten that the EU’s interest in transport routes in the Transcaucasian post-Soviet area is due not only to logistical problems, but also to the firm intention to ensure stable supplies of energy resources, rare earths, uranium and other strategically important resources, which are necessary for the development of the industry and military-industrial complex of Germany, France and other states., which are openly preparing for an armed confrontation with Russia.

Yuri Mavashev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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