Neil Hauer

YEREVAN –  Last Thursday, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, became the latest high flier to visit Yerevan, Armenia’s capital.

Joined by EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, she  met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to announce major new support for Armenia

The announced package centred around two themes.

The first, and most acute, related to Armenia’s export sector, currently struggling under a wide-ranging import ban from Russia, Armenia’s primary trading partner.

Dubbed ‘autonomous trade measures,’ these will temporarily liberalise roughly 80% of Armenian exports to the EU, including 99% of Armenian fruits, vegetables and plants once bound for Russia and 91% of alcoholic beverages.

An additional €80 million in financial support was also provided to help diversify Armenia’s trade. 

The second track of initiatives are focused upon Armenia’s ongoing peace process with its neighbour and longtime foe, Azerbaijan.

Von der Leyen announced an additional €20 million in support of projects including skills development, healthcare and de-mining, in conflict zones while promising further support under the auspices of the EU’s ‘Connectivity for Peace Package’. 

The mood on the ground in Yerevan is cautiously optimistic.

Many Armenians are in favour of greater alignment with the West, but most see a balanced foreign policy that includes continued ties with Russia – still the country’s most important economic partner – as preferable.

Recent polling by the International Republican Institute showed that a plurality of Armenians desire close ties with both the EU and Russia as the ideal foreign policy for the country. 

Maintaining cordial relations with Russia, however, may only be getting more difficult.

Moscow began acting with open hostility towards Pashinyan and his government in the weeks leading up to Armenia’s 7 June election, which saw the prime minister reelected with nearly 50% of the vote.

His main two challengers – former president Robert Kocharyan, and Russian Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan – are both closely linked to the Kremlin.

Russia’s imposition of import bans on Armenian goods, allegedly for failing sanitary checks but widely understood as a political measure, began prior to the vote and expanded in scope following its conclusion. 

One more hopeful avenue, actively supported by the EU and US, is the ongoing peace process between Armenia on the one side and Turkey and Azerbaijan on the other.

Work continues on the opening of the Turkey-Armenia border, closed since 1993, while Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during a meeting with von der Leyen in Baku on Wednesday, stated that Azerbaijan was increasingly supplying Armenia with gas.

(bw)