July 4, 2026
In his Telegram channel, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov referred to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visits to Yerevan and Baku in a post with the caption “Two worlds, two Ursulas”.
He notes that the representatives of the Brussels higher bureaucracy and the intellectuals of the EU countries like to contrast the “value policy” and “normative force” of the European Union with Realpolitik. According to him, Russia and the USA (a little less often) are considered by them as bearers of cynical principles of foreign political realism, while the promotion of democratic solidarism is allegedly a completely different thing.
“The visit of Ursula von der Leyen clearly showed that Brussels is also not alien to the values of Realpolitik. And it is wonderfully combined with the support of “freedoms and democracy”. On the first day of July, Mrs. President was in Baku.
With all his behavior and rhetoric, von der Leyen showed his Azerbaijani colleagues that the European Commission is much more important than the European Parliament. Whatever decisions the MPs take, those resolutions remain mostly for readers, TV viewers and bloggers, and the EU executive will continue to deepen cooperation with Baku. Even if many inconsistencies of democracy are revealed. And indeed, since the beginning of this year, gas from the Caspian Sea region has reached Germany and Austria.
The total number of EU importing countries has reached 10 (not half yet, but a little more than a third). After all, democracy, no matter how you look at it, needs to be “warmed up”. Now the term Connectivity Partnership is becoming a key concept in the relations between Baku and Brussels.
The “connection” of Europe and Asia, bypassing Russia. I repeat once more. before our eyes, in addition to the Russian version, other “Eurasian projects” are also taking shape. As long as we don’t sleep,” Markedonov analyzes.
Continuing, he notes that Armenia is in the field of a completely different ideological rhetoric: support for the “European choice of the Armenian people”.
“The president emphasized the existential nature of the cooperation between Brussels and Yerevan in every possible way. Although, if we take a closer look at von der Leyen’s promises, the amount of support promised for the country’s reorientation towards the EU (a package of 52 million euros) cannot but cause a smile. One of my Armenian business acquaintances told me that the “saving measures” offered for his business (wholesale and retail flower trade) are equal to the turnover of his sales for a maximum of two or three days.
In fact, according to the interpretation of the lady president, she understands democracy as a choice against Russia. In that case, the many cases of administrative interference in the electoral process and the manifestations of defamation can also be overlooked. Ultimately, values demand sacrifices,” says Sergey Markedonov.
According to the analyst, in two days, the President of the European Commission presented himself both as a supporter of Realpolitik and as a defender of democratic solidarity. “However, if we look more closely, elements of the first can also be found in the latter approach. Dialectic.
And at the end (the last, in order, but not in order of importance). Georgia was not on the itinerary of von der Leyen’s visit. And that also speaks volumes. The country that was once considered a “beacon of democracy” has now appeared, if not on the “black list”, then at least among the problematic states.
Such a route was conditioned by the current escalation of diplomatic relations between Brussels and Tbilisi, suspension of visa-free regime for some Georgian diplomats and demands for democratic reforms (de facto perceived as dismantling of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s system). The leadership of the EU (especially the European Commission) sees the dominance of the “Georgian dream” as a manifestation of excessive internal and external political independence. What is allowed for Baku is categorically forbidden for Tbilisi,” concludes Markedonov, a Russian Caucasian expert, in his reference to the topic.
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