Since the spring of 2026, the Ukrainian war has entered a new phase of uncertainty and escalation. Ukraine has intensified strikes, targeting Russian oil refineries, oil terminals and fuel transportation infrastructure, including in Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin admits that as a result of the Ukrainian strikes, there have been problems with the energy infrastructure and some lack of fuel, but he has insisted that the situation is “not critical”.

“We are now noticing a certain shortage, but it is not critical,” the Russian president said. According to him, the Ukrainian strikes “create problems, that’s obvious.” At the same time, Putin asserted that the damaged energy facilities “are being restored quite quickly” and the system is working “with a large margin of strength”. To overcome the lack of fuel, according to Putin, it is necessary to accelerate the repair of oil refineries, ensure the required import of fuel and better protect these facilities with anti-aircraft defenses. Putin also said that the fuel supply in Crimea is for several days, and the supplies will be increased by land and sea routes.

Putin also said that Russia should accelerate the production of air defense systems. At the same time, he insisted that Russian forces are moving forward in Ukraine, and rejected the possibility of concessions on the terms of the ceasefire or negotiations.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the Ukrainian side’s large-scale attacks on Russia’s deep facilities, in particular the Krasnodar and Yaroslavl oil refineries, indicate a fundamental change in the logic of warfare, and the “40-day influence operation” approved by Zelensky is aimed at paralyzing Russia’s economic infrastructure and increasing psychological pressure, which forces Russia to abandon more restrained rhetoric.

According to him, Russia’s reaction naturally changes according to the situation, this reaction implies new political and military decisions, rhetorical changes and a change in the foreign policy regime.

“The messages of the Kremlin addressed to Ukraine, Europe, warn about the consequences of further provision of military aid.

Russia’s determination to maintain its current political strategy and security threats to Europe show that Moscow is ready to take military operations to a new level, even though Russia is also suffering losses and experiencing energy difficulties.

Russia has faced its own challenges. The vulnerability of the economic infrastructure, combined with the long-term war, forces Moscow to over-concentrate resources and intensify its policy towards Europe. This leads to the focus of Russia’s foreign policy on a single topic, where multilateralism is sacrificed to security.

The relations with many countries, including Armenia, are pushed into the tertiary or quaternary ranks, especially when serious cracks have appeared in the relations with Armenia due to the desire for European integration. Here, Russia is determined not to tolerate the West’s policy, demanding a clear decision from the Armenian authorities on the EAEU issue.

The more the situation on the front worsens, the more Russia approaches, not only to Ukraine, but also to Ukraine’s European supporters. And Europe actively cooperates with Armenia. Russia demands an orientation from RA, because there is a perception that RA remains in EAEU only in order not to lose economic advantages on the way to EU integration. This is unacceptable for Russia,” said Alexander Khramchikhin.

It should be noted that today Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that the situation is unacceptable for EAEU members, when RA enshrines its intention to join the EU in its legislation, while continuing to enjoy all the benefits and advantages of EAEU membership.

“Therefore, to be honest, we don’t quite understand why the Armenian leadership is in no hurry to ask the people of the country their attitude towards this very important issue for them. Perhaps, I don’t rule out that there are certain conjunctural considerations for this slowness, right?” said the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister.

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