The European Union confirmed today that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will arrive in Armenia next week to emphasize Brussels’ support to Armenia in the face of political pressure from Russia. It is reported that the President of the European Commission will also visit Azerbaijan.

“The purpose of von der Leyen’s upcoming visit to the South Caucasus is to show the EU’s support to those countries,” the European Union reports, according to Reuters.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos will also visit Armenia on July 5.

After the June 7 elections in Armenia, the results of which are still being contested by opposition forces in the Constitutional Court, the European Union has been active, announcing a quick package of aid to Armenia and essentially “protecting” it from Russian restrictions.

On June 14-15, RA Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan paid a working visit to Luxembourg. On June 15, Minister Mirzoyan participated in the discussion within the framework of the meeting of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of EU Member States at the invitation of Kaya Kalas, High Representative of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the EU. A few days ago, the European Union officially launched the “Connectivity Agenda Platform”, an initiative that, according to the European Union, is designed to bridge Europe and Central Asia through the Black Sea region and the South Caucasus.

The representative of RA participated in the event, but the representative of Azerbaijan did not. Today it became known that the special representative of the European Union (EU) for the crisis in South Caucasus and Georgia, Magdalena Grono, is in Baku.

During his visit to Baku, he discussed regional processes, EU-Azerbaijan relations, as well as the prospects of the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia in meetings with Azerbaijani officials.

Grono wrote on his X social network page: “I am happy to return to Baku for intensive consultations with my Azerbaijani colleagues, including the assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, the head of the foreign policy department of the President’s Office, Hikmet Hajiyev, the representative of the President of Azerbaijan on special assignments, Elchin Amirbekov, as well as the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elnur Mammadov.

Our discussions focused on regional processes, EU-Azerbaijan relations, opportunities in the field of transport links, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the upcoming high-level interaction of the European Union with Azerbaijan and Armenia.

We agreed to maintain the dynamics of the historical results achieved on the road to lasting peace between the two countries. The European Union will continue to support this process.”

Yesterday it became known that the special representative of the NATO Secretary General for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Kevin Hamilton, is on a visit to Azerbaijan. This is Kevin Hamilton’s first visit to Azerbaijan as NATO’s special representative for the region. At the same time, Bertrand Buchwalter, the diplomatic adviser of the French President on continental Europe, was also in Baku. And most importantly, in the coming week, Ursula von der Leyen will visit Yerevan and Baku, keeping the balance, although the visit had the agenda of expressing support for Armenia against the backdrop of Russia’s restrictions.

In this post-election phase of Armenia, Brussels has obviously adopted a policy of high intensity of involvement in the South Caucasus. Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming visit to Yerevan and Baku is not only a symbolic step of support, but also a strategic calculation, where the European Union seeks to act as a guarantor of regional stability, counterbalancing Russian influence, while simultaneously advancing its own agenda and influence.

At the present stage, the development of transport and energy connections of the South Caucasus occupies a key place in the agenda of the European Union. The launch of the “Connectivity Agenda Platform” shows that Brussels views the region not only as a political partnership, but also as a strategic corridor connecting Europe, the Black Sea Basin and Central Asia. In that context, Armenia is considered as a possible transit link, while interest in Azerbaijan is due to both energy cooperation and its key role in East-West communication projects.

At the same time, Brussels continues to invest political capital in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, trying to maintain its mediating influence. Therefore, the high-level European visits planned in the coming days should be considered not only as a manifestation of political support for Armenia, but also as part of the EU’s broader South Caucasus strategy. That strategy simultaneously includes attempts to limit Russia’s influence, balance the growing role of China and Turkey, promote Europe’s transportation and energy interests, and maintain a parallel, balanced political dialogue with Yerevan and Baku without making a final choice in either direction.

This active diplomatic voyage of the European Union in the South Caucasus, including these days to Baku, testifies to the ambitious goal of Brussels to connect Azerbaijan even more closely to the Western orbit and soften its adopted policy of neutrality.

Despite Azerbaijan’s more balanced foreign policy, the EU, through its visits and high-level consultations, is trying to show Baku that European economic and transport integration can provide greater strategic stability. In this sense, the frequent visits of European officials to Baku are an indicator of the desire to draw Azerbaijan into the “western camp” as much as possible, where they try to present economic mutual benefit as the main impetus for the orientation of the political vector.

—