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Will Aliyev risk his own power for the sake of maintaining Pashinyan’s power?

June: 25, 2026

During the briefing after the government session, journalists drew Nikol Pashinyan’s attention to the fact that Azerbaijan says that the issue of the return of “West Azerbaijanis” should be included in the peace agenda, doesn’t this mean that the peace process is in danger?

“Now, for example, it is being discussed that there will be an event in the US Senate on the topic you mentioned, but there is silence that 10 days ago or a little more, Armenian organizations put an issue on the agenda, which refers to the continuation of the Karabakh movement. As long as Karabakh flags are placed in the NA hall, as long as this conversation continues in RA, it will continue in a mirrored manner. In other words, it is just one factor conditioning the other. I say that all this has no practical significance and will not have as long as we are in power, and we express a clear position on this matter.

The leader of the “Armenia” bloc says that Armenia should not be satisfied with 29,743 square kilometers, so what should it do? Everyone listens to what is being said and what is happening in Armenia. I am saying very directly, how much efforts the US federal lobbying made in that direction, how many steps it took, they will get… that is, any step that contradicts the choice made by the RA people, and the people have said that the Karabakh movement will not continue.

Now, any attempt to continue the Karabakh movement at other levels will lead to mirror reactions. And that process, yes, can cause problems. It is said that some event took place in Nakhichevan, but we did not say what large-scale event was held in Armenia before that, what emphasis was made, etc. I want us to understand the context of the problem, the cause-and-effect relationships, besides, it is meaningless who started the first and who started the second. It’s the same for us to go and try to understand how the Karabakh movement started, who was right and who was wrong,” he elaborated, reminding that Azerbaijan is a strategic deal. to suggest, they should leave each other alone.

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“And the way to leave it alone is not to continue the Karabakh movement in Armenia, and not to take action related to this logic in Azerbaijan.” Pashinyan emphasized.

Let’s start with the last wording.

On November 13, 2024 In the parliament, Nikol Pashinyan, referring to the BRICS summit in Kazan and the conversation with Aliyev, elaborated.

“The most important part, from my point of view, is that a thought was voiced, and I think that for peaceful coexistence and peaceful coexistence, Armenia and Azerbaijan need not only peace and various agreements, but also need to conclude a strategic deal. about what resolutions they will live side by side as independent states in the next 100 years. I think this is the most fundamental and important question.”

Shortly after, In December 2024, Aliyev to Pashinyan’s strategic deal proposal had answered in another mutually beneficial transaction. In particular, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan invited the relevant bodies of Armenia to cooperate in the criminal case against the former military and political leaders of Artsakh, who are in custody in Baku.

“Guided by serious grounds, according to which, most of the persons who are considered as suspects or witnesses in the episodes discussed during the investigation are now in the territory of the Republic of Armenia, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan invites the relevant authorities of Armenia to cooperate,” the statement of the Azerbaijani department states.

Before that in October of the same year Aliyev stated that if Armenia really wants to achieve peace with Azerbaijan, it “must” condemn the “atrocities committed against Azerbaijanis” and “punish the guilty”, considering it one of the effective means of strengthening trust between the two countries. In other words, Aliyev responded to Pashinyan’s offer of a deal with a deal that might be mutually beneficial. But, on the other hand, it must be admitted that, essentially, Pashinyan’s proposal to leave each other alone was left “in the air” by Aliyev.

Besides this, In December 2024 Aliyev proposed another “deal” to Pashinyan, by which he also rejected his proposal to conclude a strategic deal. President of Azerbaijan had suggested Pashinyan to start negotiations with the “West Azerbaijani” community and to take practical steps towards the restoration of the fundamental rights of “West Azerbaijanis”. In other words, the fact that Aziz Alekberli, the president of the “West Azerbaijan community”, declares that “the issue of the return of West Azerbaijanis to their native places should become one of the topics discussed within the framework of the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia”, this is a reminder of Aliyev’s earlier demands or is based on them.

And Nikol Pashinyan was not constrained to “leave his outstretched hand in the air” in 2024, Aliyev’s answer was “strategic behavior”, and In December 2025 Pashinyan is another strategic deal offer To the dictator of Baku.

“And now I want to make an open, public offer to Azerbaijan, because as much as they have a problem with these topics, we have a problem too. I propose that we adopt a joint road map to close these two topics in parallel.

I also told our people of Karabakh that their return is not realistic. If we continue the return agenda, it means that we start the Karabakh movement again, but I said that we should not continue the Karabakh movement. The Karabakh movement is over, and attempts to start it are useless. But on the other hand, they also see in Armenia that Azerbaijan constantly uses the incomprehensible terminology “Western Azerbaijan”.

And in response to this, already in February of this year in connection with this issue, how? we have informed, Aliyev made another dangerous and cunning proposal to Pashinyan.

And now why does Pashinyan think that this time Aliyev will accept the reactivated strategic deal offer? In the end, if Nikol Pashinyan is “selling” the peace agenda to the citizens of Armenia in order to maintain his own power, Aliyev, apart from that, has promises he made to his own people a long time ago, which his own government is keeping, he is just waiting for the right moment. And that convenient moment can be chosen so that Pashinyan has room to maneuver inside the country in the best case.

And the fact that Pashinyan has fears, so to speak, about the crushing of the established peace and the emergence of processes that bring problems, is completely justified, and not on the basis of what he says, but because in Baku it are of the opinion that without the return of “West Azerbaijanis” there cannot be stable and strong peace in the region, or it is unlikely to be.

In other words, Baku does not connect this issue with the Karabakh movement, as Nikol Pashinyan presents, nor is a mirror process considered. It cannot, in fact, be considered a mirror, if we take into account that the RA authorities do not have any state program for the return of refugees from Baku and Artsakh, while Baku does, Aliyev does.

Therefore, Aliyev’s demands as the holding of some “symbolic” events at the public or political level cannot be considered an adequate action, and we are sure that Aliyev does not give them as much importance as Nikol Pashinyan, even if he has certain fears regarding “revanchist forces”. However, it is clear that by placing the Artsakh flag in the RA Parliament, today Armenia cannot bring back Artsakh, and Azerbaijan can achieve the implementation of the political plan of “Western Azerbaijan” with cunning proposals, in a phased version, as long as Nikol Pashinyan sees the key to its prevention only within Armenia, that is, at the level of internal problems. Or Aliyev’s propaganda machine in a special language, an event dedicated to “Western Azerbaijan” is being organized in the US Congress, because, for example, in RA orIn France There are some episodes related to forcibly displaced persons from Artsakh.

We will only be happy if Nikol Pashinyan manages to keep the “door” of the Republic of Armenia closed against the “Western Azerbaijanis”. Nikol Pashinyan, who before the 44-day war at the session of the Council of Ministers announced. 

“At the direction of the special services of Azerbaijan, the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” initiative was created, referring to the Republic of Armenia. This makes Azerbaijan’s regional policy more comprehensive, and the absurd initiative of “western Azerbaijan” came to replace the ridiculous series of so-called “southern, northern, northwestern Azerbaijanis”: highlighting Azerbaijan’s destabilizing ambitions in the context of the entire region.”

P.S. About 2 years ago, a group of foreign diplomats were given certificates of honorary membership of the “West Azerbaijan” community. Former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is also on the list of those persons.

Jhanna Virabian:
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