In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest negotiation specialist, conflict analyst, senior consultant at CM Partners, Boston resident Artur Martirosyan is.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Pashinyan did not get a constitutional majority, but he got a continuation of the game. If they enter the Parliament, Pashinyan will try to attract several people from the opposition to his side. That’s his hope, because if he doesn’t, the structure will collapse…

• Pashinyan realized on election night that it could be worse than what he got:

• Something strange was happening. PAP’s numbers were changing strangely, and what happened happened because if he let PAP pass, things would have been worse for him.: That’s why he didn’t leave…

• This government has been at the helm of the state for 8 years, and for some reason, they are just saying that they either stay in the line of Russianness or not. It is clear that Pashinyan received carte blanche from the West in the elections to intensify anti-Russian sentiment.

• Since 1991, Western forces wanted to push Russia out of here. it didn’t work out, but those forces did not sleep and waited for their hour, their convenient moment and achieved their goal… Russia must defend itself, and this will lead to very serious consequences, I don’t even rule out that there will be a conflict with Europe as well…

• At the moment, the governing power of the European Union, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, Marta Kos and Kaia Kalas are the important decision makers for us. And when we hear that Europe, in the name of Germany, says that we must by 2030 to be ready for war against Russia, what does this mean, the opposite side should not be ready? This is a serious challenge because you never know how such an escalation phase will end.

• Europe is doing everything for their proxy, Ukraine, to succeed, and for that, Russia needs to declare itself defeated, but that cannot happen. The Russians must show that they do not want to take drastic measures, but they have to and must. By the end of the summer, the entire territory of Donetsk will be under Russian control, but Zelensky will not stop, he will continue:

• Russia is telling us: take sides, tell us clearly whether you are with us or our enemy. And here you can’t say we’re with you, but… you know, we caught some spies who were working for you… You can’t say that, it’s ridiculous. Pashinyan will try to play a two-sided game, to be with Europe and Russia. He will say one thing to one, and another to another.

• During the Pashinyan-Putin meeting, Putin addressed the Armenian people, not Pashinyan. The time for “either Europe or Russia” games is over. The resources of Pashinyan and the Armenian people to play such games are limited. If Pashinyan had sense, he would have understood that he should not have entered into the Russia-West conflict at this stage, but he saw an opportunity there. he, like Zelensky, was given carte blanche:

• It’s clear, isn’t it, that you should either be in the China-Russia-Iran triangle, or in the Turkey-Azerbaijan-West union. Pashinyan chose the triangle of the Turkey-Azerbaijan-West union. That option is an opportunity for him to stay in the game.

• For Aliyev, the Diaspora, the Armenian Church, confederates and the Armenian people are enemies, because for him all Armenians are allies.

• Pashinyan is an unprecedented partner for Azerbaijanis and Turks, the likes of which they do not have, have not had and will never have. What they want, Pashinyan does for them. And if he is a partner of such importance to you, you should help him get re-elected again. That is why they did not publish the complete list of their demands from Armenia during this time, so as not to hinder Pashinyan’s re-election. After the elections, now is the time to gradually present their demands to Armenia. Azerbaijan has never abandoned its strategic goals. And when there is a government in Armenia that scares its people with war every second, now is the moment for it to implement its fears and fulfill its promises to Azerbaijan… But it cannot, because according to the results of the National Assembly elections, it does not have a constitutional majority. It did everything to have a constitutional majority. But it will not be possible to talk about these problems over the phone, other countries may hear their conversation, the whole thing will be revealed, that’s why Hajiyev came to Armenia. In negotiation, it is called talk in the woods. The issue of Azerbaijanis coming to Armenia should be discussed in that context. claims are already being made. If this happens, Azerbaijanis will gradually get autonomy and a faction in the Parliament. Aliyev will say: if they want, let the Armenians return, knowing for sure that the Armenians will not go to Azerbaijan. Which Armenian will return to Azerbaijan, a country where their national hero is the man who beheaded Armenians while they were sleeping?: Azerbaijan, as a state, stands on the back of its citizens, says: Azerbaijanis should return, and they should have law enforcement bodies, bodies that ensure their security, not like Armenia, which does not take ownership of its citizens, some of whom are in prisons in Baku… 

• Are you the prime minister or a representative of the judiciary? Isn’t there a law in this country that you say: I will crush the opposition, I will make them sit… or that the mayor says: I will flay your skins? In real parliamentary republics, such people would resign instantly. And Europe, naturally, will turn a blind eye to this, because they need this, they do what they need. The result of this will be that our people will be disillusioned with European democracy:

• Uncertainties in Iran-US relations do not end. It is not yet known what will happen after the US elections.

• If in today’s conditions there will be an Armenian state in the future, it will be a state completely dependent on Azerbaijan and Turkey, so that no Armenian generation will ever be able to return to the national goals that existed before Nikol Pashinyan’s rule. And let someone tell me that it won’t happen like that:

• There are different theories of peace, but there is no theory that only one side wants peace. both sides should want peace and both sides should take clear actions towards it. In our case, there will be a forced peace, a situation where we will be told every time: if you don’t want war, you will have to give this, that, and the other.

• One of the documents brought by Marco Rubio was the document on the minerals of Armenia. It worked. They got the minerals of Armenia themselves. The task of diplomacy of established countries is to advance their own interests. The US Secretary of State cannot sign a document that is not in their best interest.

• The Chinese have a very long memory. CP members probably don’t remember, but I will remind them that they themselves came to power, joined the anti-Chinese camp, signed some pro-Uyghur document, which did not give them anything. The Chinese did not say anything, they will not say anything, but they will remember. China has not yet congratulated Nikol Pashinyan:

International scholar Suren Sargsyan once referred to the “collapsed Armenian-Chinese relations. 

1. 2019 In May, the RA Prime Minister visited China. As a result of the high-level meetings, a number of agreements were reached (including on the “Road and Belt”, but due to the inconsistency and dilettantism of the authorities, they were not implemented. The Chinese side, naturally, drew conclusions.

 2. 2019 The Minister of Economy of Taiwan visited Armenia. However, we have a declaration signed with China, according to which RA is committed not to establish any official contact with Taiwan. Naturally, there were denials/clarifications/oaths, but on the Chinese side the implications were already made. 

3. 2019 Armenia joined the International Alliance for Religious Freedom. A movement that is markedly anti-Chinese in nature, and the Trump administration did not hide it. The Armenian side tried to justify the “unreasonable”. No serious argument was made as to why joining that movement is in RA’s interests. The Chinese side drew its conclusions.

After all this, are you still surprised by China’s position in the UN Security Council?” he wrote.

• It would be good to have that scene in the movie “Borat-2”. How Kazakhstan awarded Pashinyan with the highest award of Kazakhstan.

• By raising a question about EAEU at the government session today, saying: “EAEU, do you exist or not?”, Pashinyan is saying this not for the domestic audience, but for Russia, but continuing the alternative game with the Russians is no longer meaningful, especially since you have no alternative. Pashinyan underestimates and does not understand the deep game between Russia and Kazakhstan. 

To remind, today at the government session, Nikol Pashinyan announced. “I have questions for my colleagues regarding the statement that was accepted in my absence. We need to understand what it means in practice, can any EAEU country make such decisions in relation to any country, will they wake up one day and make decisions? According to my assessment, if the answer to this question is “yes”, then the EAEU announces its self-dissolution, and we should draw conclusions from this,” he noted.

• I, as a citizen, have a question for Ararat Mirzoyan: can you tell me with concrete numbers, which countries and how much you sent our products to?:

• Zelensky went to Azerbaijan, specially chose Gabala, from where the Russians were expelled, but he did not make anti-Russian statements there. He did it from Armenia.

To remind, during the plenary session of the European Political Community in Yerevan, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made statements regarding Armenia’s strategic ally Russia and V. addressed to Putin and made threats.

“This summer is going to be the moment that Putin has to decide what to do: expand the war or switch to diplomacy, we have to push him to diplomacy. Russia will hold a parade with military equipment on May 9. If this happens, it will be the first time that they will not be able to show their military equipment, fear-mongering UAVs will buzz over Red Square. This shows that they are not strong, we should continue our sanctions against them,” he said.

Zelensky called on the international community from Armenia to continue the political and economic pressure on Russia.

Naturally, Russia reacted very harshly to these statements, which were made from Armenia itself.

• If the opposition united before these elections, 60% of the undecided voters would decide in their favor and go to the elections. If you, as a party, collect 2-3.5% of votes in all polls, then you should have done what the RPA did and did the right thing, saying: we are not participating, but we support the opposition in every way. It was important not to lose the sound of the ethos. Uniting as a collective opposition, it was necessary to announce that I am the majority and going to the Parliament, I will not announce any other plans at this moment, but I am going to change this government, to stop this disaster. Victory consists of small things.

• From a moral point of view, it is definitely correct not to take the mandates, but politics is not only morality. We cannot afford a moral victory, as in the case of Avarair, because not taking the mandates is a defeat on the ground.: But taking the mandates, you must clearly tell your electorate what you will do, what will be your goal, your plan. 

• Nikol Pashinyan will not go to new elections, he will do everything so that the Constitutional Court will make the decision he needs. After seeing the results of the elections, Pashinyan understood that nothing can be achieved by arresting the leaders, the will of the people must be broken through a new wave of repressions, so that the Armenian people no longer have any chance of resistance, cannot stand up again.

• He himself calls on the opposition to make a revolution, otherwise, if anyone else had made such statements, he would have ended up in prison.

Details in the video.

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