Qatar and Pakistan, which are brokering US-Iran technical talks, said the United States and Iran had agreed on a “roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days” following progress on the first day of high-level talks in Switzerland.

The talks followed a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, which set a framework for de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran and set the stage for further talks. The progress was made after a 12-hour meeting on the shores of Lake Lucerne, attended by high-ranking officials from both countries.

The joint statement also announced the creation of a special coordinating group, the purpose of which is to contribute to the cessation of Israeli military operations in Lebanon. In addition, a high-level committee and direct communication mechanisms have been established to support further negotiations.

The US delegation was headed by Vice President JD Vance, and included Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump, and special representative Steve Wittkoff. The Iranian delegation was headed by the Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was also part of the delegation.

According to the joint statement issued by Qatar and Pakistan, a high-level commission was established to exercise political control over the mediation process. The statement states that the commission has agreed on a “roadmap to reach a final agreement within 60 days”, and technical negotiations will continue over the next two months.

“The chief negotiators will report regularly to the High-Level Commission and lead working groups on the nuclear program, sanctions, as well as monitoring and dispute settlement, in order to ensure the effective implementation of the memorandum of understanding,” the statement said. Despite the agreement reached, a number of key issues remain open. Among them are whether Iran will be allowed to continue enriching uranium, what fate awaits the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, to what extent international inspections should be carried out, and when sanctions can be eased. The parties also agreed to create a direct communication channel that will operate on the issues of the Strait of Hormuz in order to avoid incidents and misunderstandings, as well as to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships.

The statement was published in the conditions when navigation on this waterway of strategic importance continues to be disrupted.

The agreement also envisages the creation of a special coordination group, which should monitor the implementation of the agreements on the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. Araghchi stated that “significant progress” has been recorded towards the end of the war in Lebanon, but he emphasized that the first real test of the agreement will be the efficiency of the coordinating group. These statements were made after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel will remain in the security zone established in South Lebanon for as long as it deems necessary.

Araghchi also hinted that the agreement includes significant economic concessions from Washington, although the United States has not yet publicly confirmed the information.

In a post published on the X social network, he noted that the sanctions imposed on Iran’s oil exports and the sale of petrochemical products were lifted, the embargo was lifted, some frozen Iranian assets were released, and a large-scale program for the restoration and development of Iran was launched. According to him, these were the main conditions that Tehran insisted on fulfilling for a long time.

According to international experts, optimism about the reached agreements is still premature. Although the parties have agreed on the political framework of the negotiations, the most complex issues remain unresolved. It concerns not only the future of Iran’s nuclear program, but also the sanctions lifting mechanisms, the extent of international control and the transformation of the regional security architecture.

It is even more remarkable that Washington and Tehran are trying to include both nuclear and regional security issues in the same negotiating package, which significantly increases the vulnerability of the agreement. It is enough for the parties to fail in any direction, and the whole process can reach a dead end.

From a geopolitical point of view, the emerging agreement can be considered as an attempt to find a new balance of forces in the Middle East. If earlier the US policy was based on containment and isolation of Iran, now Washington, in fact, is trying to involve Tehran in regional settlement processes, recognizing its influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and the security system of the Persian Gulf.

This may mean a gradual replacement of power confrontation in the region with controlled competition. Although in Iran, they treat the steps and political will of the USA with great distrust. At the same time, such an approach raises serious concerns in Israel and a number of Arab states of the Persian Gulf, which consider the institutionalization of Iran’s role as a strategic threat.

For the South Caucasus, the process is no less important. If a phase of relative stabilization begins in US-Iran relations, Iran will get greater opportunities to concentrate its foreign political and economic resources. In that case, Tehran can be more actively involved in communication and transport projects of the South Caucasus, trying to strengthen its position as a regional transit hub. At the same time, the probability that Iran will deal exclusively with security issues and push its northern direction into the background is decreasing.

This creates both opportunities and risks for Armenia. On the one hand, easing the pressure on Iran can contribute to the expansion of Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation. On the other hand, if Washington and Tehran reach broader regional agreements, the South Caucasus may become one of the zones of influence of these new deals, where the great powers will try to rearrange their interests and spheres of influence. Under these conditions, one more challenge will be added to Yerevan’s already numerous challenges.

—