Although the parliamentary and presidential elections in the Republic of Turkey hardly are noted on the horizon, local political the field significantly there is a storm. Striving to create the most comfortable conditions possible “Ajustice and development» for the party and for him personally (or for his successor, in case of force majeure circumstances), Recep Erdogan tries by all possible means to weaken, divide, and if it works, also break down main opposition «People’s Republic» the party, about which we wrote in a previous series in publications։

In March 2025, the famous mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was behind bars, accusations were also made against the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavash, and last May, a serious split was created in the “Kemalik” camp, which is deepening day by day.

One of the courts in Ankara last month recognized as annulled The regular 38th congress of the People’s Republican Party (CHP), which took place in early November, removed the party’s chairman, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, and replaced him with Ozgur Ozel. However, later the former mayor of Hata, Lutfu Savas, and a number of delegates filed a lawsuit demanding the annulment of the voting results.

At the same time, the Prosecutor’s Office of Ankara continues to investigate possible violations during the party congress. the indictment was published on June 3, and the above-mentioned Ekrem Imamoglu is among the 12 defendants in the case, whose participation in the election process is clearly going to be closed for good. All the defendants are charged with vote fraud, this article provides imprisonment for a term of one to three years.

Currently, the supporters of Ozel and Kılıçdaroğlu are actively clarifying the relationship, disputing the right to speak on behalf of the party in the parliament building, which is fraught with further scandals and fights, as it happened many times before. Ozel thoroughly accuses Erdogan’s party in using the judiciary to weaken the “People’s Republicans”, stating that the issue cannot be presented as an intra-party dispute. Ozel’s supporters are pushing for an extraordinary congress by July 26, suspecting that a delay could jeopardize the party’s participation in the upcoming elections, which could be snap. For his part, Kılıçdaroğlu, who previously lost to Erdogan in the presidential elections and poses no threat to him, insists on his legitimacy and accuses his opponents of bribery and seeking support abroad.

If the elections in Turkey are still ahead (if they are not held early, then in 2028), then in the Republic of Armenia they have already been held, marked by many scandals and active use of administrative resources.  Military historian, Doctor of Political Sciences Armen Ayvazyan writesthe word It is about the first elections of the Turkish or “Erdogan” model in Armenia.  Despite the fact that protests have accompanied most election campaigns over the past 30 years, it is very likely that The political technologists of the “Civil Pact” were guided by the political technologies, with the help of which Recep Erdogan has shaped the results of the election companies he and his party needed in recent decades. Note that this has not always been successful. The municipal elections of 2024 were successful for Ozel’s “People’s Republicans” and now, apparently, it has been decided to get rid of the inconvenient competitor once and for all.

Armenia’s ruling Civil Pact party, despite its relative (but not constitutional) majority, is clearly concerned about its declining popularity in the five years since the snap election on June 21, 2021, suggesting a more active implementation of an “Erdogan” hybrid authoritarian governance model in which, according to Ayvazyan’s assessment, “the elections are formally held, but the real political competition is seriously limited.”

According to international organizations, “the election process has become deeply unfair due to abuse of state resources, information inequality and systematic pressure on the opposition”.

It was mentioned above that the judicial system in Turkey is widely used to neutralize the most dangerous competitors for the government. Besides E. From Imamoglu and O. Selahattin Demirtaş, leader of the “pro-Kurdish” People’s Democratic Party from Ozel, has been in prison since 2016 on trumped-up “terrorism” charges, barring him from fully participating in the 2018 and 2023 election campaigns. Municipalities controlled by the People’s Republicans are under the scrutiny of law enforcement agencies and their leaders are regularly sacked, as has happened not only in Istanbul but also in many Kurdish-majority eastern and southeastern provinces (e.g. In the city of Van)։

The absolute majority of Turkish media is under the direct or indirect influence of the government, while many critics have gradually been forgotten, such as the once very popular Zaman newspaper. During the 2023 elections, the state TV channel TRT gave Erdoğan hundreds of hours of air time, while his rival, the same Kılıçdaroğlu, got only a few minutes.

The use of emergency powers received by Erdogan as a result of the constitutional referendum of 2017 also plays in favor of the current government. The 2018 elections generally took place under a state of emergency, which allowed limiting political activity and opposition actions.

Thus, Erdogan’s regime has formed a “hybrid regime” in Turkey, where the institution of elections seems to be preserved, but the basic prerequisites of fair and equal political competition are actually destroyed.

A. According to Ayvazyan, the similarity of modern Turkish and Armenian cases “is hard not to notice. Here too, criminal prosecutions of opposition figures have become a common tool of political struggle, local governments are subjected to pressure, administrative resources are used for the interests of the ruling party, and voters are constantly forced to face the same dilemma: “either Pashinyan or war”. The difference so far is only in scale. Erdogan built that system earlier and brought it to perfection, while Pashinyan, it seems, is only diligently learning the lessons of the Turkish political school.”

This conclusion is completely confirmed by the prime minister’s scandalous statements threatening the opponents with criminal cases and restricting their right to free movement. In his pre-election speeches, the leader of “Civil Agreement” promised that Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan and Samvel Karapetyan would be “broken” and their property would be redistributed. “You will dream of escaping from Armenia, but you will not have such an opportunity,” Pashinyan was quoted by the local media. He openly talks about the prison terms of opposition leaders, accusing them of election bribery.

The so-called “Anti-corruption Committee”, led by Artur Nahapetyan, has already appealed to the Minister of Justice, demanding to ban the parties involved in “election bribery” from participating in the elections (a term that can be used to summarize any undesirable person).

Along with threats, intimidation and blackmail, the methods of bribery suggested by Rasim Musabekov, already a deputy of the Milli Mejlis of Azerbaijan, will also be used.. allegedly, “Strong Armenia”, which received 29 parliamentary mandates, is a “weak, ideologically completely uncoordinated force composed of opportunists… Most likely…, in that “Strong Armenia” (by the authorities) there will be a person who, occupying the position of deputy speaker of the parliament, will in general have a constructive cooperation with the ruling majority, and we will see how the 29-member faction will disintegrate. One of them will most likely go after the allies and Kocharyan’s Armenia faction in the parliament, and the second part will have a constructive situational interaction with the ruling majority, and in reality, I think Nikol Pashinyan will have a constitutional majority, albeit a situational but necessary one.

It must be assumed that the methods developed by Ankara and Baku, masked by “pro-European” rhetoric, will be increasingly used in the process of transition to the “fourth Republic”, the national-cultural identity of the Armenian people. with a radical reformulation։ It is not excluded that following the recommendations of senior friends, the authorities may go for early elections, as reported by some biased persons. Before announcing new elections, it is necessary to clean up the political field as much as possible by trying, as described above, to bribe (and if it doesn’t work, to imprison the MPs of the opposition factions).

The reason is on the surface. Baku is applying pressuredemanding a constitutional referendum, without which the signing of the peace treaty is not possible, and the border with Turkey will not be opened, where all preparations have been completed. Pashinyan’s regime does not need uncontrollable members of the National Assembly, who are ready to discuss serious issues with Russia.

The leader of the “Civil Pact” speaks directly about the intention to carry out a new “revolution”, isolating all his opponents who allegedly got their votes thanks to “bribes” and are against the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, for which it is necessary to achieve a constitutional majority by all means. In case of success of such a combination, the next legitimate step is the withdrawal of the Russian 102nd military base and border guards and the further steps of integration into the Turkic world.

TIGRAN BAGHRAMIAN

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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