While the domestic political life in the Republic of Armenia is “boiling” after the June 7 elections, an unprecedented geopolitical agreement has been registered in Armenia’s immediate neighborhood. Although, according to analysts, it is still fragile and vulnerable, the signing of the US-Iran framework agreement claims to be one of the key geopolitical events of recent decades.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Massoud Pezizkian signed a framework agreement online to end the war between the two countries. According to international media reports, this is the first document signed jointly by US and Iranian presidents since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.

Washington and Tehran also released the text of the memorandum of understanding. However, President Trump threatened to resume strikes against Iran if Tehran does not fulfill its obligations.

“We will bomb them to hell if they violate the agreement,” Trump said at a press conference on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, adding that he did not want that to happen. “I want them to honor the agreement,” he said. According to the White House chief, “it would not be fair” if Tehran did not have ballistic missiles. Trump had previously promised to completely destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who heads the Iranian negotiating delegation from Tehran, commented on the obtained memorandum, saying that everything they sought to achieve through military action, they received several times more as a result of the negotiations. Ghalibaf also stated that Tehran still does not trust the United States, and Iran’s “finger is on the trigger.” The speaker of the Iranian parliament said in an interview with the state-run Fars TV channel that even if there is a final peace agreement, “it is still not worthy of trust.” “Our finger is on the trigger, and if the enemy does not understand the language of logic, we will again resort to the language of force,” he said.

The 14-point document bypasses a number of key issues, such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program, leaving it to a later comprehensive agreement. It sets a 60-day negotiation period, the beginning of which will be announced on Friday in Switzerland. The text of the framework agreement consists of 14 points, which we present below:

• An immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon,
• The US and Iran should respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs,
• The parties undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, which may be extended by mutual agreement,
• The US “is beginning to lift the naval blockade immediately, it will be fully lifted within 30 days,
• Iran will ensure safe and free passage of commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days,
• The United States is committed to creating a final, mutually agreed upon plan for the reconstruction of Iran worth at least $300 billion,
• The US is lifting all sanctions against Iran.
• Iran reaffirms that it will not acquire or develop nuclear weapons. The parties agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed issues related to the nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic of Iran,
• Until a final agreement is reached, the US and Iran agree to maintain the status quo,
• The US Treasury Department will issue a temporary permit for the export of all services related to Iranian petroleum products,
• The United States is committed to making Iran’s frozen or restricted funds and assets fully available for use,
• A mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this memorandum,
• Following the signing, subject to the fulfillment of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11, the United States and Iran will begin negotiations on a final agreement,
• The final agreement will be approved by a binding UN Security Council resolution.

Russian orientalist Viktor Nadein-Raevsky said in an interview with 168.am that the content of the framework agreement was expected, balanced, and derived from the interests of the parties.

According to him, the Islamic Republic of Iran was able to maintain the red lines it had declared in this text.

“At this stage, we can only assess the text of this document. This is a text in the form of a memorandum, it is very important how seriously the parties will treat it and adhere to all the points that are enshrined in it. After such complex agreements between conflicting parties, the key question is whether the parties will adhere to these agreements or not.”

Experience shows that the political weight of such documents is tested not at the moment of signing, but by the practical steps that follow. From this perspective, it is impossible not to recall the fate of the 2015 Nuclear Agreement. This historic document, the result of years of complex negotiations, was easily nullified when the United States unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018, restoring sanctions. Therefore, with Donald Trump back in the White House, we must approach the results of this framework agreement with caution, as any hesitation could undermine this online achievement,” Viktor Nadein-Raevsky expressed this opinion.

In his opinion, however, one should not expect instant and lasting peace from the US-Iran framework agreement, especially when Israel is indirectly involved in all of this.

The analyst believes that the document only defines the general rules of the game for the parties and the intention to reduce tension.

“In all likelihood, we will see the application of the “step for a step” principle in the near future, but it should be taken into account that any unforeseen, unplanned incident in the Middle East can cancel this fragile situation. This was important for Iran’s internal life, this could provide an opportunity to stabilize the currency, mitigate social discontent and strengthen its positions within the country, since before the war with the US, the internal situation in Iran was extremely unstable. Tehran will try to use this pause to finally break its diplomatic isolation and restore relations and influence with the world’s major economic centers,” he said.

This global agreement, he believes, will also have consequences for the South Caucasus, changing the balance of power. “If the current US-Iran situation continues successfully, Iran will be strengthened in the region both politically and economically, will begin to present a new bid in the region, also participating in the planned projects. For Armenia, this will be an opportunity to deepen ties with Iran. However, I repeat that the most important thing at the moment is how the parties will maintain the agreements and how they will overcome the “step for step” stage in order to reach the stage of signing the next major agreement,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

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