Turkish-Western big two skilled experts with experience appear on the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace coming Program entitled “Next steps towards peace after the elections held in Armenia”. by article։ Ismail Alper Joshkun, the former ambassador of Turkey and UN representative in Baku, and Karo Paylan, the former deputy of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, suggest without delay to “give new momentum to the process”, and Ankara, which is hosting the next NATO summit in early July, “can become a platform for the next important window of diplomatic opportunities”.

According to the authors, “Nikol Pashinyan has won a vote that could determine the future of the South Caucasus,” and “his victory preserves the prospect of peace with Azerbaijan, normalization of relations with Turkey, and gradual integration of Armenia into broader regional and Western economic networks.”

Meanwhile, as a result of the vote, the Civil Pact party did not receive enough votes to advance the constitutional changes demanded by Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan requires before the final conclusion of the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan signed in Washington in August 2025. However, this “should not cause a delay in the process for any party,” Joshkun and Paylan write. – On the contrary, the more limited mandate makes it more important to create visible dividends of the world with the support of Azerbaijan, Turkey, the USA and Europe. If the peace process stops, the forces interested in overthrowing it will strengthen, and the Armenian society will more often perceive the settlement as a unilateral concession. And if peace brings concrete benefits—open borders, trade, investment, energy connections, and new economic opportunities—it will help build domestic support for any long-term settlement.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may use the July 5-7 NATO summit in Ankara as an opportune moment to organize a quadrilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the purpose of which “should be to prevent the stagnation of the peace process and develop joint commitments to create a political and economic base for its further advancement.” Let’s note that such meetings have not yet taken place, and it is not at all a fact that it will be possible to properly prepare it during the remaining upcoming weeks.
“The first step can be the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, with the support and understanding of Azerbaijan, for direct trade and movement of citizens of third countries. It is necessary to start trade and free movement of people. The residents of the region, first of all, the Armenians, should see that normalization brings real benefits. Azerbaijan can show that military victory can become the basis of leadership in the peace process. Turkey, for its part, will be able to demonstrate that its support for regional connectivity also includes Armenia, and that the special relationship with Azerbaijan is used for the common good,” the columnists continue, thereby suggesting a soft revision of Baku’s aforementioned demand, which rigidly binds Armenia’s constitutional referendum as a precondition for signing a peace agreement. Apparently, it is assumed that Trump should have a corresponding influence on Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan, which is far from obvious.

“The South Caucasus is closer than ever to the interconnectedness that replaces war, fragmentation and historical mistrust. with interdependence and with joint economic benefit. This opportunity cannot be missed. The region does not need another frozen diplomatic process. He needs an economy of peace,” Joshkun and Paylan write, further discussing the key role of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIP). In a narrow geographical sense, we are talking about the transport corridor passing through the Syunik region of Armenia, which will connect the main territory of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey.

Strategically, this route could become part of a wider network of transport, energy, digital and trade connections between the Caspian region, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkey and Europe. “If properly implemented, TRIPP should not turn into a corridor that benefits one side at the expense of the other. It could become the beginning of a new Pan-Caucasian economic agreement based on the principles of sovereignty, reciprocity and common interest… The opening of the Turkish-Armenian border for the trade and movement of citizens of third countries will not be a concession to Armenia.  It will be an investment in regional stability, the development of the Middle Corridor and the strengthening of Turkey’s strategic influence. In addition, it will allow Azerbaijan to support the move to strengthen the peace process without giving up its key negotiating positions. – write the employees of the European Program of the Carnegie Foundation, calling to think about a bright future. – The South Caucasus is located in the center of the geopolitical area stretching from the Black Sea to Central Asia and the Middle East. At a time when wars, sanctions and crises have shown the vulnerability of global supply chains, the region’s geographic location can be an advantage rather than a source of problems.

A peaceful and interconnected South Caucasus can strengthen the Middle Corridor, increase trade stability between East and West, create new trade, energy and digital communication channels, and provide the US and Europe with a more stable outlet to Central Asia.

For Azerbaijan, this is an opportunity to turn a military victory into a political success and strengthen Ilham Aliyev’s legacy. Baku can participate in the formation of a new regional order, where the country’s security, sovereignty and economic interests will be strengthened through peace, not constant confrontation.”

For Pashinyan’s “Fourth Republic”, “open borders, investments, trade, infrastructural development and raising the standard of living of the population are necessary. For Turkey, the regulation of relations with Armenia also derives from its long-term interests. It will allow to strengthen Turkey’s role as a regional connecting center, support the development of the medium-term corridor to Central Asia, expand Ankara’s influence in the South Caucasus and form a positive agenda in relations with Washington and Brussels.”։

Acknowledging that “interconnection should not be limited to roads”, the authors express a bold idea that “energy and the digital economy can play an analogue of the European coal and steel agreement in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has serious energy resources and is striving to become a regional center of artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. Turkey has a strong industrial base and access to European markets.

Collectively, these advantages can enable the implementation of a new generation of regional projects: data centers, digital corridors across the Caspian Sea, energy and logistics networks, as well as production chains connecting Central Asia and Europe through a more sustainable South Caucasus.” Recent investment programs in the field of artificial intelligence and data processing centers in Armenia, including initiatives with the participation of the company NVIDIA, testify to the ability of the states of the region to attract the world’s largest technology companies.

According to the authors, “peace will become truly sustainable only when it is supported not only by politicians and diplomats, but also by entrepreneurs, investors, workers, local communities and ordinary citizens interested in maintaining open borders and mutually beneficial cooperation.” The South Caucasus should not turn into a theater of competition between world powers, needing an open and inclusive system of interaction based on trade, interdependence and development.

In the end, the authors state that Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Turks deserve a future without conflicts, mutual hostility and constant competition. Despite the complex historical legacy, they see the opportunity for the Caucasian states to move to a new model of relations based on coexistence, exchange, trade and peaceful cooperation.

The pathos of Joshkun and Paylan is understandable, but it is not so clear how realistic their proposals are.։ Even if the leaders of the four countries meet in Ankara, it is not at all a fact that their meeting will lead to practical results. it is enough to remember the infamous “Peace Council” named after Donald Trump, which is now largely forgotten. According to Carnegie Endowment experts, some “permanent coordination mechanism” with the participation of the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and interested international financial institutions could help track progress, identify bottlenecks, attract investment and prevent deviations from the peace agenda, being “practical, targeted and aimed at the implementation of projects that can bring tangible benefits: modernization of customs services, development of border infrastructure, transport links, energy cooperation, digital investments and support for SMEs that can take advantage of new trade channels”.

This idea, to put it mildly, does not quite correspond to the “three plus three” format put forward by Russian diplomacy, excluding Russia and Iran from the formats of regional interaction. Armenia’s subordinate position in the geopolitical structure proposed by Joshkun and Paylan is no less obvious. On June 14, in Dilijan, Azerbaijani President’s Assistant Hikmet Hajiyev and Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan discussed the issues of the “peace agenda” between Baku and Yerevan, emphasized the continuation of bilateral dialogue within the framework of promoting stable peace and stability in the region. The interlocutors confirmed the intention to maintain working contacts and agreed to hold the next meeting in Azerbaijan.

Alexander Grigoriev

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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