The state of Armenia’s economy was not a problem before, and even more so now. The assurances that, in case of losing the Russian market, Armenian products, particularly agricultural products, can be sold in Europe are groundless.

No one expects Armenian products in Europe. Europe cannot solve the problem of realizing its own economy and products, let alone solving the problems of Armenia’s economy.

This situation, which has been created, is a serious blow to Armenia’s economy. And while the authorities consider it to be temporary, the economy and business suffer great losses. No government is capable of fully compensating the losses that the economy will suffer as a result of all this. The state budget simply will not be enough for this, if the business does not solve its problems very quickly. And the business does not have the ability to solve these problems at the moment. It takes time, sometimes a long time. Meanwhile, agricultural products cannot wait until alternative markets are opened. It was time to think about creating alternative markets.

Almost the entire assortment of agricultural products, which went to Russia, has lost its market. Exports to other countries, including the EU, are very few, if any.

Armenian products have serious problems related to competitiveness in the markets of the European Union. The price-quality ratio leaves Armenian products out of competition. Even the compensations are not enough to overcome this problem and occupy a tangible place in the EU markets.

The small volume of production is also a problem, which affects both cost, competitiveness, and demand satisfaction.

Solving these problems takes years. The authorities did not do that work and with their actions directly put the economy under attack, on the one hand, by depriving the main export market, on the other hand, by not creating an alternative.

There are announcements that we will increase the export to the EU by 4-5 times by the end of the year. Such statements are irresponsible statements, there are absolutely no such grounds.

Although at first glance there is some recent movement in terms of the volume of exports from Armenia to the EU, it actually has little to do with the reorientation of the export of Armenian products. Exports from Armenia to EU countries have increased this year, but this is mainly due to the increase in metal exports and the increase in their prices. Exports of other goods, as they were and continue to be, remain in small volumes.

These volumes almost did not change even after it was decided to subsidize export customs duties to some countries. It will not change, especially after the Russian gas suddenly becomes more expensive.

It is an attempt to mislead the people and business when, in response to the rumors about the possible increase in the price of Russian gas, the ruling oligarch Khachatur Sukiasyan announces that there are opportunities to buy cheaper gas from Russia. Allegedly, third countries have expressed their willingness to sell gas to Armenia, and these processes are underway. As if they told him about it in a friendly manner, he cannot reveal which country it is, but that country is not Azerbaijan.

In fact, there is nothing to reveal here, and there is no need to add any extra mystery to it. We are talking about Turkmen gas, discussions about which did not start today or yesterday. Those conversations started tens of years ago, they continue even today, but there is no result, and there is no hope that it will happen in the near future. Even if there is, it cannot become an alternative to Russian gas.

We are talking about importing Turkmen gas through the territory of Iran, in the so-called swap version. If the problems related to it have not been solved for years, imagine how likely it is that they can be solved now, in this tense regional situation. What’s more, these problems are not only purely economic, financial and logistical, they are also political and related to Turkmenistan-Iran relations. But even if it turns out that all these problems will be solved by a miracle, all the same, this direction cannot be a substitute for Russian gas.

At best, Armenia can receive only 600 million cubic meters of gas annually from Turkmenistan. The gas pipeline coming from Iran has no more opportunities than that. The capacity of that gas pipeline is in the order of 1-1.1 billion, through which 400-500 million cubic meters of Iranian gas comes annually within the framework of gas-electricity exchanges.

So, in the best case, Armenia can get only 600 million cubic meters of gas per year, which is a very small part of the domestic demand.

We still do not say what the price of that gas will be before it reaches Armenia.

It is ironic when the ruling oligarch complains about the high gas tariffs in Armenia. He says that we are the only country in the world where gas reaches consumers at a price 120 percent higher than the price at the border. He forgot that domestic gas tariffs are not set by the supplying country, nor by “Gazprom Armenia”, nor by the consumer. Internal gas tariffs are set by the authorities and the “independent commission” under the authorities, in the form of the Public Services Regulatory Commission. And if they are 120 percent higher than the border, the government and that commission are responsible, which did not favor reducing gas tariffs even after the 25 percent devaluation of the dollar, left them high and took billions of drams out of citizens’ pockets.

Today, the gas price for the population is 2.3 times higher than the Russian gas that reaches the border. And if it turns out that tomorrow we will be deprived of Russian preferential gas, the population will have to pay a much higher price for gas than they pay today. When a citizen pays around 390 dollars or 143.7 thousand drams per thousand cubic meters for the 170 dollar gas received at the border, calculate how much he can pay if the price of imported gas, let’s say, doubles. The price of gas sold to the economy, including the greenhouse economy, will be doubled.

After that, how many days will the economy last, and how many will be able to pay for it?

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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