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168: This will lead to a very bad place… Russia, the EU and the US are comfortable to have

June: 11, 2026

“Pressing” in the program Satik Seyranyan the guest is Doctor of International Law from Paris-Panthéon-Assas University, lawyer, former Secretary General of the International Federation of Human Rights, French-Armenian Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan.

to remind 2026 In March, the International Monitor for Democracy in Armenia (IODA), an international, non-partisan organization, announced the launch of its first fact-finding mission to assess democratic conditions in the Republic of Armenia’s 2026 elections. ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

2026 on March 7-12, the delegation held its consultations in Armenia with actors representing a wide range of political and civil society.

The organization’s executive board members include Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, internationally renowned human rights lawyer Dr. Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan, Sarah Lee Whitson, Diana Kearney, William Burdon, Jose Aranaz, Mark Jones, and former Canadian Member of Parliament Brian May.

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Recently, on June 5, the report of the International Observatory of Democracy in Armenia (IODA) was published.

The main points of the interview with Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan are below.

  • The final report of the International Observatory for Democracy in Armenia (IODA) was published on June 5. We confirmed what we previously wrote: external influence on the National Assembly elections in Armenia from various sides, both from the West and from Russia. Moreover, they helped Nikol Pashinyan more. The West openly supported him, and the talk of the Putin-Pashinyan meeting helped Pashinyan even more.
  • In the electoral process, the government misused administrative resources.
  • Unfortunately, the judicial system in Armenia is not independent. This had a great impact during the elections. Criminal proceedings were initiated only against opposition figures, but when a supporter of the government, a representative of the government, did the same thing, no case was filed against them. This is also documented in our report: 
  • We met with three state bodies: the Investigative Committee and the Anti-Corruption Committee and the Corruption Prevention Committee. Unfortunately, the ruling party, “Civil Pact” (CP), did not want to meet with us, and the Constitutional Court and the Human Rights Defender also avoided meeting with us.:
  • CP’s goal was not just to win the elections, but to have a constitutional majority, and today’s precinct recount is very important in that sense. If the authorities can prevent PAP from entering the Parliament, they will get a 3/5 majority, but not a constitutional majority. This is what the fight is for. If the last case against Gagik Tsarukyan is from 2019, then why did they activate it now?

  • According to the law of the Republic of Armenia, the immunity of a deputy candidate can be overcome only with the consent of the Central Electoral Commission. This did not happen in the case of Gagik Tsarukyan.
  • Of course, fair elections were not held, but in the case of today’s realities, the West will accept its results. such an election process was unacceptable for our observation mission:
  • In today’s Europe, there is nothing surprising anymore… It’s funny, but in the last French presidential elections, Macron was elected with 20% of the people’s votes. unfortunately, this is the system of “democracy” today. In the case of Nikol Pashinyan, in fact, he managed to convince a little more than 49% of the people that there will be peace and everything will be fine…
  • Unfortunately, the opposition did not adopt the right tactics. First, small parties should not have participated in the elections, so that votes would not be wasted… The political process has failed, it has become a battle of egos. But under these conditions, even the opposition can obstruct the changes to the Constitution. Worst of all, the tensions within the country will continue while we face serious challenges. Society is divided within the country, the Diaspora is divided, and this is when we have to deal with the most serious security problems we face…
  • Nikol Pashinyan wrote in his program that he will depose Garegin Vehapari, announced that Robert Kocharian should be imprisoned, Samvel Karapetyan, Gagik Tsarukyan will be imprisoned… This will lead to a very bad place.
  • Azerbaijan will not give up its demands, the TRIPP program has become just a piece of paper, we are under Russian sanctions, the state has very large debts, and no one cares about this.
  • The 2 members of the observation mission of the Council of Europe did not even comment on the violations. they talked only about external influence from Russia.

By the way, the OSCE observers presented the preliminary report on the Armenian parliamentary elections, in which the observers noted a number of factors that, in their estimation, affected the equal conditions of the pre-election campaign. These include reports of external pressures, including trade restrictions and security threats, which are said to have influenced voter preferences. 

The report was prepared with the participation of the OSCE mission, including representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly, ODIHR and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). 

The report states that the pre-election campaign was extremely confrontational and was accompanied by accusations of bribery and other violations. These factors led to the initiation of a number of criminal cases against opposition candidates and activists, which, according to observers, affected their participation in the campaign. It also mentions pressure on public sector workers to participate in ruling party events, as well as the impact of recently introduced socio-economic measures, which have raised questions about equality of opportunity for election participants. 

The special coordinator of the OSCE short-term mission, Farah Karimi, stated that the concentration of criminal prosecutions against the representatives of the opposition strengthened the perception of the electoral process as electoral justice.

  • It is more convenient for Russia, the European Union and the United States to have a leader like Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia, who is weak, not national, and it is easy to get their demands from him.:
  • No one from the European Union has sent an invitation to Armenia to join the EU. However, the Armenian government openly declares that we should use both blocs: both the EU and the EAEU. But it is impossible, and in this sense one can understand the Russian president who tells the Armenian authorities that the decision must be made now. I am also sure that until Turkey becomes a member of the EU, Armenia will not have that opportunity. So, talks about entering the EU are empty, empty words:
  • What will the apricot business change for Armenia? How big is the effect of that… Are we talking tens of millions of dollars? This is not serious. Or we say we will take the flower to Holland. what will the price of that flower be? Let’s not forget that we have no direct borders with the EU.
  • Clearly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio came to support Pashinyan. The agreement, which was initialed and then signed, is the third agreement between the Armenian and American parties (first in August, then in January). The signed agreement reminds again under what conditions the TRIPP project can be implemented, and none of them have been met so far, and the project is still up in the air. Iran does not participate in it, Russia does not, who is left: Azerbaijan and Turkey? 
  • If TRIPP is to operate under American law, what other sovereignty are we talking about?

  • The TRIPP agreement cannot be superior to the Constitution of Armenia, if it is not yet an international agreement, and it can become such only if the CP had a 2/3 constitutional majority, which it does not have. Therefore, TRIPP cannot be transformed into an international treaty. This was the reason why there were no smiles on the faces of Nikol Pashinyan and CP members on the election night: 
  • The document signed during Rubio’s visit contains several very dangerous points for Armenia.

Details in the video.




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