Parliamentary elections in Armenia have ended. And, perhaps, their main result was the confirmation of the thesis that the Armenian society is divided։

Neither supporters of friendship with Russia nor supporters of European membership could get a convincing majority. The “Civil Agreement” party of the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan collected only 49.81% of the 50% necessary for the formation of the government alone. Nevertheless, according to the complicated electoral legislation of Armenia, the political force that received the majority of votes increases the mandates of the national minorities of the Republic at its own expense, at the expense of redistributing the votes of the parties that did not overcome the transient threshold, which gives Pashinyan the opportunity to sit in the chair of the head of the government.

In turn, the two largest opposition forces, the “Strong Armenia” bloc, led by Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, and the “Armenia” bloc, a supporter of rapprochement with Russia, led by the second president of the Republic, Robert Kocharyan, collected 23.29% and 9.94%, respectively. The “Prosperous Armenia” party of big businessman Gagik Tsarukyan did not reach the threshold of 4%, which gives the opportunity to pass to the parliament. According to the data of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC), the other participants in the election campaign were also unable to overcome the electoral barrier.

Thus, from a legal and formal point of view, the winner is decided. However, the fact that the victory “hung by a hair” gives his opponents a reason to cite numerous violations and falsifications.

Thus, according to the RA General Prosecutor’s Office, a total of 425 reports were received regarding apparent election violations during the NA elections, and the RA Investigative Committee has already initiated criminal cases in 59 cases.

As a result all this can become the beginning of a serious political crisis in the country, which will be extremely difficult to overcome.  The conflicting parties have very different views on the future of Armenia. Existentially different, even.

In that sense, the parliamentary elections of the Republic, in which almost two-thirds of the voters participated (according to the data of the CEC of Armenia, the final participation was 58.97 percent), were in many ways a historical choice for the future path.

Traditional relations with Russia and other countries in the post-Soviet territory have appeared on the other side of the scale: stable, strong, mutually beneficial and well predictable.  And on the other hand, something beautifully packaged, which is a kind of fantasy about milky rivers with jelly banks, with little reminder of harsh reality. However, it is necessary to give credit to the European mythmakers. the tales of a rich and well-fed Europe, from which no one will be left out, neglected or oppressed, they are able to invent and then deliver with great skill.

Meanwhile, it has already been said, the reality is very strict and pragmatic. As of today, the accumulated investments in Armenia, 86% of which are of Russian origin, amount to 4.9 billion dollars. As a result, Yerevan’s refusal to cooperate with EAEU, which is inevitable in case of further rapprochement with the European Union, will lead to the loss of at least 14 percent of Armenia’s GDP.

In addition, In the case of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union, the republic will lose the opportunity to receive Russian gas at a preferential price, which is now $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, as opposed to $633 in Europe. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Mikhail Galuzin emphasized that Russia does not intend and will not pay for Armenia’s road to the European Union.

Other, but no less important, losses to the republic’s economy, related to its desire to become part of the Western world, cause significant damage to agriculture, of which more than 96% of its output is consumed by Russia, metallurgy, beverage production, tobacco and food. The expected decline will be up to a third of the GDP (at least 5 billion dollars), and inflation will increase by 14.3%. And that with the most modest calculations.

In addition to purely economic problems, rapprochement with Europe will bring significant headaches to Armenia in terms of both domestic and foreign policy, as well as value orientations of Armenian society. And these are not empty words at all.

In the current situation of tough opposition of the West and Russia to the liberalization of legislation in the field of rights and freedoms of various minorities, which is already a serious challenge for conservative Armenia, Brussels and its satellites are guaranteed to insist that Yerevan join the anti-Russian sanctions and break all ties with Russia: political, economic, cultural and human, which will certainly have extremely negative consequences for the republic, the majority of whose citizens live in Russia.

Instead, Armenians are offered the same jelly, and without any clear prospect of receiving it. The point is that No one in Europe is waiting for the Republic striving towards the European Union with the efforts of Pashinyan. According to the Prime Minister’s admission, as of today, Armenia is objectively not even ready for the status of an EU candidate country.  Moreover, what concerns the infamous visa liberalization, on the “hook” of which Europe once managed to catch Ukraine, then here too, nothing is radiating to Armenians. They only promise it, and that too after a few years.

And in such a situation, when the advantage is objectively in favor of friendship with Russia, European political technologists and Armenian authorities had to work seriously to achieve their desired voting results.

Literally everything worked.

• Ursula von der Leyen promised 50 million euros to Armenia՝ as a compensation for the losses suffered from damaged economic contacts with the Russian Federation. chickens laugh too, if we compare it with the Russian investment in the Armenian economy,
• According to Le Journal du Dimanche, during the election campaign, employees of the French intelligence unit VIGINUM, which specializes in cyber security issues, tirelessly cleaned the Internet day and night of any critical remarks against Pashinyan.. Paris-like blatant interference in the Armenian elections was the result of a cooperation agreement between France and Armenia, signed by Pashinyan and Macron, which legalized the practice.
• on the eve of the elections, the Ministry of Defense of Armenia warned that every citizen coming to Armenia from abroad, primarily from Russia, who aims to vote for one or another party, will necessarily be involved in military gatherings. In this way, the authorities hoped to defeat the wave of protest voting.

Well, the icing on the cake of this pre-election bacchanalia was the arrests of the leaders of several precinct election commissions on the very day of the parliamentary elections.

But all this did not bring Pashinyan’s longed-for unconditional victory in the West, which in turn threatens Armenia with serious political turbulence for several more years.

Alexey Belov

vpoanalytics.com

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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