by Evelyn Farkas, opinion contributor

Armenia’s parliamentary election on June 7 will do more than decide who governs a country of 3 million people at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. As Armenia attempts to loosen its dependence on Russia and reorient itself toward the West, this election will test whether a small democracy on Russia’s doorstep can chart its own future, and how much the U.S. is willing to help it do so.

Diplomatic progress on peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, encouraged through sustained U.S. engagement and linked to broader regional integration initiatives like the recent transit and trade corridor agreement brokered by the U.S., has created a historic opportunity to stabilize the region while advancing American strategic interests. The emerging peace framework between Armenia and Azerbaijan could become the foundation for something larger: a more politically stable and economically integrated South Caucasus, less dominated by outside powers. Such a reality would serve American strategic interests for decades.

Just last week, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan to continue deepening U.S.-Armenia ties, and it is essential that U.S. engagement continue. During recent McCain Institute visits to Armenia, discussions with regional experts, policymakers, and civil society leaders reinforced a growing consensus that Armenia is entering a pivotal geopolitical moment whose outcome remains uncertain but strategically important. As the South Caucasus is rapidly becoming a key arena for transit connectivity and U.S. access to critical minerals, Russia’s regional influence is weakening, and Armenia is searching for alternatives to Moscow.

Armenia’s internal politics remain fragile. Recent assessments surrounding the 2026 parliamentary elections have highlighted vulnerabilities to disinformation, foreign interference and democratic backsliding. An even greater concern, however, is that disengagement by the U.S. and Europe would strengthen pro-Kremlin forces in Armenia.

This dynamic is particularly visible among younger voters. The McCain Institute’s delegation to Armenia this April heard that many younger Armenians remain politically undecided or show openness toward candidates aligned more closely with Moscow. That uncertainty reflects a society shaped by insecurity, war fatigue, and economic anxiety rather than ideology alone, and it creates an opening for forces seeking closer alignment with Russia. Indeed, the two issues most likely to define Armenia’s upcoming elections are security and economic prosperity. 

That matters because Russia no longer appears capable of credibly guaranteeing either for Armenia. The collapse of Russia’s security role during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis fundamentally altered Armenian public perceptions. Although Moscow’s influence remains significant, confidence in Russia as Armenia’s indispensable protector has weakened substantially.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s increasingly open defiance of the Kremlin — which has included his signaling that Armenia’s future lies closer to Europe than to Russia — would have been politically unthinkable only a few years ago.

That outcome is not guaranteed. Russia is fighting to retain regional influence, targeting Armenian exports to Russia and threatening to withhold its own energy exports in the run-up to the election. Domestic instability inside Armenia could still reverse the country’s trajectory. Economic frustration and security fears could strengthen pro-Kremlin political forces in the next election cycle.

These uncertainties are precisely why continued U.S. engagement matters most now.

Armenia’s movement away from dependence on Russia may still be incomplete and politically contested, but for the first time in a generation, it is real. In supporting this pivot, the U.S. must show that nations which choose democratic self-governance and self-determined foreign policies will find committed partners in Washington.

Armenia’s elections must remain for Armenians themselves to decide. But if the U.S. wants a more stable South Caucasus and a region more guarded from Russian pressure, now is the moment for sustained American engagement.

Evelyn Farkas, Ph.D., is executive director of the McCain Institute. Prior to serving as McCain Institute executive director, Farkas was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia — a region that included Armenia. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5911387-armenia-pivot-away-russia/