The sharp escalation in Armenian-Russian relations and the sharp rhetoric of high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation took a new turn in the protocol in recent days. The phone call of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to Nikol Pashinyan on the occasion of his birthday takes place against the background of unprecedented freezing of bilateral relations and direct economic sanctions applied by Moscow.

The phone call was on the occasion of Pashinyan’s birthday, according to reports, the Russian President congratulated Pashinyan on his birthday and sent his best wishes. “The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia thanked the President of the Russian Federation for his balanced positions, friendly tone, and support on a number of issues that give rise to mutual understanding. The interlocutors have agreed to continue the discussions on the next convenient occasion in the format of a meeting,” said the message of the RA government.

It is noteworthy that the phone call takes place against the background of rather alarming developments in Armenian-Russian relations, to put it mildly, when Russian officials warn the RA authorities about the incompatibility of EU integration and EAEU membership. They also do it with rather harsh words, calling Nikol Pashinyan a “scoundrel”, which Dmitry Medvedev did the other day. In parallel, the Russian side imposes sanctions on Armenian products, prohibiting some of them from entering the Russian market, in some cases, finding problems in the products, etc.

A few days ago, at the end of the EAEU session held in Astana, it became known that all EAEU leaders addressed the situation around Armenia in a statement, considering Armenia’s European integration aspirations as risky for EAEU countries. It said: “Taking into account the steps taken by Armenia to join the European Union, including the law “On the initiation of the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union” adopted by the RA National Assembly in 2025 and signed by the President of the Republic, as well as the reaffirmation of Armenia’s European aspirations by the EU in the joint declaration adopted as a result of the first Armenia-European Union summit held on May 5, 2026, as well as the economic security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the Union) the risks that arise in connection with the preparation of the Republic of Armenia to join the European Union, it was decided that the representatives of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia in the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council will report on the possible consequences of suspending the operation of the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty on the Republic of Armenia at the regular session of the Eurasian Economic Union to be held in December 2026.” The presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan also highlighted the issue of holding a nationwide referendum in Armenia as soon as possible on joining the European Union or remaining a member of the Eurasian Economic Union.

The contradiction between Russia’s pressure and the call to Pashinyan has given rise to discussions in political and expert circles, but it seems to fit into the logic of combining asymmetric pressures and high-level diplomatic etiquette used in foreign policy.

The political context of the situation is more than alarming. In this multi-layered pressure system, Vladimir Putin’s call is a tool to keep the last line of communication open and the situation under control. Analysts familiar with the foreign policy style of the current Russian leader often claim that in the Kremlin’s foreign policy it is customary to separate technical and economic sanctions and tough rhetoric at the executive level from the personal diplomacy of the head of state.

Moscow used similar tactics in 2016 during the extreme crisis of relations with Turkey (the call to Erdogan after the coup attempt) and in 2020 during the “oil and gas war” and political public disputes with Belarus (Lukashenko’s birthday greetings). These precedents show that the President of the Russian Federation maintains a formal link in order to control the degree of escalation of the crisis and to maintain the last line.

With all this, this telephone conversation does not at all mean a strategic retreat by Moscow or a resolution of the crisis. Russia has entered the stage of pragmatic rigidity, and the dynamics of Armenian-Russian relations in the near future will depend not on ceremonial gestures, but on the effectiveness of Yerevan’s political and economic maneuvers before the meeting of the EAEU Supreme Council expected in December. However, the RA authorities highly appreciate this call, consider it effective and warm, thinking that all issues will be resolved.

It is also interesting that, parallel to the call of the Russian President, today the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, who recently called Pashinyan a “scoundrel”, publicly drew a parallel between Nikol Pashinyan and Lev Trotsky, and then expressed the opinion that Armenia wants to enjoy all the advantages of EAEU, skillfully using Russia and other countries of the Union. Medvedev also recalled that Trotsky’s attempt to follow the same pattern led to the signing of the Brest-Litovsk Peace Treaty, but with much stricter terms. In conclusion, Medvedev emphasized that Lev Trotsky’s own winding path had a tragic end.

Medvedev believes that such tactics can be dangerous for the Armenian leader himself. In the context of Putin’s call, Medvedev’s statement is another direct geopolitical warning from Russia. while the Russian President keeps the window of personal communication within the framework of diplomatic etiquette, the Vice President of the Security Council hints that the delay in decisions, like Trotsky’s example, can lead to many other consequences for Armenia.

—