Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Armenia to hold a referendum on whether it wishes to pursue European Union membership or remain within the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), warning that Yerevan cannot remain fully integrated in both structures simultaneously.

Speaking after the EAEU summit in Astana on Friday, 29 May, Putin argued that it would be ‘quite logical’ for Armenians to decide their geopolitical future through a popular vote. He drew a chilling comparison, telling reporters that the crisis in Ukraine began when Kyiv sought closer integration with the EU. The more than decade-long conflict also has a troubled history involving referendums, as both Crimea and the four Russian-controlled oblasts of eastern Ukraine held votes before their official annexation, the legitimacy of which is widely contested by Western countries.

The summit concluded with a joint declaration by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan warning that Armenia’s EU ambitions create ‘significant risks’ to the economic security of the EAEU and that Yerevan’s membership could be reviewed later this year.

Armenia’s Future Trajectory on the Ballot

The EAEU, founded in 2015 and dominated by Russia, serves as Moscow’s primary economic integration project across the post-Soviet space. Armenia remains deeply tied to both the bloc and the Russian economy. Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner, while the country relies heavily on Russian energy imports and hosts a Russian military base on its territory.

Yet relations between Moscow and Yerevan have deteriorated sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and especially following Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, ending more than three decades of largely frozen conflict over the disputed region, which had remained under Armenian control until recently.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly criticized Russia and the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for failing to protect Armenian interests during the conflict. Armenia subsequently froze its participation in the CSTO, intensified cooperation with Brussels and Washington, and formally launched a process aimed at eventual EU accession.

‘Relations between Moscow and Yerevan have deteriorated sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine’

As Armenia approaches its parliamentary elections on 7 June, the geopolitical stakes have become increasingly visible. Recent polling places Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party between 25 and 30 per cent support, ahead of a fragmented opposition largely composed of parties described by the prime minister’s bloc as pro-Russian.

Pashinyan has repeatedly portrayed the election as a choice between Armenia’s future and a return to the political forces associated with the country’s pre-2018 leadership, described as the ‘old elite’ and characterized by a more Russia-aligned foreign policy.

He has specifically targeted opposition figures including Russian Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia movement has emerged as one of the most prominent challengers. Karapetyan is currently under house arrest, while many members of his circle are facing corruption-related criminal investigations—moves his supporters describe as politically motivated.

Western Advance and Russia’s Waning Grip

Armenia’s election has increasingly become another battlefield of competing Russian and Western interests, resulting in growing informational pressure on the country just days before the high-stakes vote. Western and Armenian officials have repeatedly accused Moscow of attempting to shape the election campaign through disinformation efforts, economic pressure, and support for pro-Russian political actors.

Reuters reported this week that Western intelligence services believe Russia has backed covert influence operations aimed at slowing Armenia’s westward shift. Moscow denies the allegations. Earlier in April, Pashinyan appealed to the European Commission for assistance in dealing with cyber threats, disinformation, and alleged Russian interference, resulting in the deployment of a ‘hybrid rapid-response team’, prompting accusations of EU interference from Moscow.

Earlier this month, Yerevan also hosted the first-ever EU–Armenia summit and the European Political Community gathering, further signalling the country’s growing integration into European cooperation frameworks.

Putin’s push for a referendum in Armenia came only a day after US President Donald Trump endorsed Pashinyan’s re-election bid, describing him as ‘a great friend and leader’ and offering his ‘complete and total endorsement’.

The endorsement followed a visit to Yerevan by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during which Washington and Armenia signed a strategic partnership framework, a critical minerals agreement, and a cooperation deal on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The proposed corridor would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through southern Armenia, potentially transforming regional trade routes while reducing Russian leverage over South Caucasus transit networks.

‘For Moscow…Armenia’s gradual realignment represents a much broader strategic challenge’

Trump directly linked his endorsement to the project, arguing that TRIPP would help unlock energy and transport links stretching from Central Asia towards Europe and global markets.

The initiative is closely tied to the US-backed Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, which accelerated after Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a landmark peace agreement last year mediated by Trump. For Washington, the corridor forms part of a broader strategy aimed at integrating the South Caucasus into emerging east–west transport and energy networks that bypass Russia.

For Moscow, however, Armenia’s gradual realignment represents a much broader strategic challenge. Russia’s influence has visibly weakened across large parts of the post-Soviet space since the invasion of Ukraine, particularly in the South Caucasus and increasingly in Central Asia, where traditionally Moscow-aligned countries have sought to deepen primarily economic and energy ties—but increasingly political ones as well—with the European Union and the United States.