The “Independent Observer” alliance submitted a report to the Prosecutor’s Office regarding the attempt to seize power and money laundering, referring to a number of investigations published recently by the foreign yellow press and other media outlets that have now analyzed them.

This observation mission is led by the unknown Daniel Ioannesyan. Even 3-4 months before the election campaign, there was an active discussion in the main opposition circles, in the press, in cafes in Yerevan, that as soon as Pashinyan sees that he is losing, Daniel Ioannisyan will turn to law enforcement and the government will go according to the so-called Moldovan scenario.

It seems that the process is starting.

According to all polls, the 3 or 4 opposition forces will form a coalition in the future NA, therefore a new government.

This is exactly what prompts the government to make a fatal mistake by introducing the “Moldovan scenario” or, more precisely, the system of “harams” of elections.

Haram number 1

The government makes a political decision to exclude one of the three leading forces from the electoral process.

We do not consider it correct to discuss the issue of our other two partners, but if the target is the PAP, then our electorate, which is already sufficiently motivated, organized and has high political energy, will concentrate around the other influential opposition forces with one appeal of the charismatic leader Gagik Tsarukyan.

In other words, we also have an action plan B.

PAP’s votes will not be scattered, they will be 1-2 strong, and the 3 opposition factions will form a new government in the future NA. Under such conditions, the common cause will not suffer. The atmosphere in the country will become even more radical.

Haram number 2

Two influential opposition forces are excluded from the electoral process.

This is already the harshest and most dangerous application of the Moldovan scenario. This will mean that elections have not actually taken place, and will create all the prerequisites for a deep political crisis. The natural response will be broad public resistance and the Armenian revolution.

For the government, this may seem like a way to control the situation, but in reality, such steps will only accelerate the process of political changes. Limiting the people’s right to choose has never become a guarantee of long-term preservation of any government.

We understand that the government suddenly stops thinking coldly. Public dissatisfaction is growing, and the administrative resources are no longer providing the previous result. However, even in this situation, he still has a chance not to go down the path of new fatal and irreversible mistakes.

If Pashinyan loses, he should leave the power politically and democratically. With all security guarantees.

If it is reproduced without harm, then it should go for internal dialogue and the only reasonable way to ease the tension in the country.

If, however, he chooses the path of “harams”, lies, repressions, then maybe he will be able to extend the life of his power for a very short time. But in that case, its ending will be much more difficult, much more unpredictable and much sadder, both for him and for the country.

A little bit about fraternal Moldova

The vast majority of the population is also a citizen of Romania, which is a member of the EU, borders that country and is deeply integrated economically and in all other respects. This is the biggest difference between us and Moldova, and therefore the difference in the consequences of the scenario.  In Moldova, a year later, the court accepted that it was illegal to exclude a political force from the elections.

In the case of Armenia, the Moldovan scenario will have a different name. scenario of deep crisis or Turkish absorption.

Political scientist Suren Surenyants

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