Today, the session of the Eurasian Economic Council was held in Astana. The heads of the EAMU first held negotiations with a small group, then with an expanded group, they summarized the work with their speeches, congratulating each other on the occasion of the 12th anniversary of the union. However, the main geopolitical intrigue of this EAEU session was the question of Armenia’s further membership in the union and its economic future. Obviously, this was one of the most tense issues of this session.  Russian President Vladimir Putin, taking into account recent attempts to change Yerevan’s foreign political vector and rapprochement with Brussels and Washington, has repeatedly urged Armenia to make a final decision and choose between two different integration models.

Moscow has clearly signaled that the adoption of European standards will sooner or later lead to legal conflicts with EAEU regulations, and Armenia will not be able to advance its European integration process at the expense of the Eurasian Union’s economic and financial privileges.

The authorities of RA, in response to multi-level criticism from Russia, declare that they will continue to stay in the EAEU as long as it does not conflict with the EU integration process.

In recent days, Nikol Pashinyan also announced that he will not allow Lukashenko to use EAEU against Armenia, as he has sufficient leverage and significant influence in EAEU. Ahead of this session, Russia announced at different, highest levels, that the issue of Armenia will be discussed at this session. And although no leader addressed Armenia in the public part of the session, after the session the assistant of the Russian president, Yuri Ushakov, announced that the EAEU 4 leaders joined the statement on Armenia and forwarded it to RA Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, who participated in the work. He also reported that the statement will be published on the official website of the Russian President, that is, the statement was the initiative of the Russian President, which was joined by other heads of the EAEU. By the way, the session of the EAEU High Council with a small composition lasted for 2 hours, and perhaps, it was during this part that the issue of Armenia was most likely discussed.

Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov announced after the session that along with the rapprochement with the EU, sooner or later, Armenia will find itself in a situation where the norms adopted by it will contradict the EAEU norms and rules. Therefore, according to him, EAEU membership is incompatible with the EU. “And besides, there is another big question. moving towards the European Union, which is the absolute sovereign right of Armenia, Armenia cannot and should not do so at the expense of the EAEU countries’ finances. He has to do it at his own expense. Everything is absolutely understandable, transparent and clear,” said Peskov. CIS General Secretary Sergey Lebedev also announced that the issue of Armenia’s intentions regarding the EU and EAEU is fundamental.

“In my opinion, this issue will be discussed amicably. On the other hand, the question is fundamentally as follows. you choose either the EAEU or the EU. The EU has a very long history, many countries want to join the EU, the history of joining the EU stretches for years. And the EAEU is a reality, from which it is impossible to turn away now. A lot depends on Armenia here.” he said. According to Lebedev, Armenia also realizes the significance of the Eurasian Economic Union.

“Therefore, now, as [Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan and many other figures have already announced, no one is going to sever ties with the EAEU. Therefore, the cooperation will continue. Well, as for the EU, we will see there,” he added.

Thus, although the actual text of the adopted statement regarding Armenia has not yet been made public, the behind-the-scenes logic of the session and the simultaneous statements of high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation allow us to assume its main content. Most likely, the document agreed behind closed doors reflects the joint position of the leaders of the EAEU member states regarding the fundamental incompatibility of the Eurasian and European economic models. At this stage, it was extremely important for Moscow to remove the problem exclusively from the level of Armenian-Russian bilateral differences and to show that Yerevan’s tactics of “sitting on two chairs” are of concern to all the founders of the union.

In conversation with us Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that as a first step, it was important for the Russian side to support the other partner countries regarding the vision of the future of the EAEU of Armenia, because the created situation is unprecedented for the EAEU.

According to him, if in the past in the post-Soviet territory, the Russian Federation was involved in similar reversals of other countries, then it acted alone, because it was not part of the unions with those countries. According to the analyst, this is a special situation when the country, being part of one union, is on the path of integration into another union. In addition, the analyst believes that if Minsk’s position, taking into account the diplomatic differences with Yerevan, was predictable, then Astana and Bishkek joining this approach of the Russian Federation was important for Russia, which may mean that a consensus has been formed in the EAEU, or the EAEU is issuing a joint warning to Armenia.

“Using the Union’s economic privileges, cheap energy sources and a huge market is considered as a privilege that is politically difficult to accept and reconcile with a country that is approaching the EU on legal, political and other levels, which is in contrast with the EAEU.

With this, Russia shows its determination and the fact that a consensus can be formed regarding the future of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU, which should be taken seriously in Armenia. With this, Russia wants Yerevan to stop maneuvering and to understand that they can be united on this issue in EAEU. However, I believe that Armenia will be crushed as long as possible. I think there will be an official response to the statement from the Republic of Armenia, after which EAEU will discuss further possibilities. Obviously, in Armenia, they are confident that EAEU will not make the issue of withdrawing Armenia from the structure a subject of discussion, because the right of veto is valid, and decisions are made by consensus. However, in the current situation, it is not necessary to rule out any scenario.” he said.

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