Armenian-Russian relations are going through an unprecedentedly fast and dramatic transformation these days. In the last week, Russia has been warning with statements and has informed in an official letter about the possible further change in the price of energy carriers, problems have arisen in the export of Armenian goods to Russia, a number of products have even been banned, yesterday the EAEU also expressed a unified position on the future of the EAEU of Armenia, and today it became known that RF Ambassador to RA Kopirkin was called to Russia for consultations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, along with the leaders of other EAEU member states, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, urged official Yerevan to hold a referendum on joining the European Union or remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union as soon as possible. Basically, the EAEU presented an ultimatum to Nikol Pashinyan.

The heads of all EAEU member states, having the same position regarding Armenia’s European integration agenda and EAEU incompatibility, directly informed Armenia that next December, during the next EAEU summit, the issue of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU will be discussed, the Eurasian Intergovernmental Commission will report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership. Putin, Lukashenko, Tokaev and Zhaparov claim that Armenia’s European aspirations “contain significant economic security risks” for EAEU member states and suggest holding a referendum. It is noteworthy that, although decisions in the EAEU are made by consensus, there is no legal instrument for expelling an EAEU member, but the EAEU leaders spoke without hesitation about the possibility of suspending the EAEU agreement for Armenia. Moreover, it is also interesting that despite the fact that no leader of the EAEU discussed the issue of Armenia at the public session of the extended EAEU, it was discussed behind closed doors and with a rather harsh vocabulary, presenting the EAEU position to the RA Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, who was present at the session, making it clear that they will no longer tolerate the policy of Armenia’s EU membership, it must be “either this side or that”.

Nikol Pashinyan, who recently announced that he will not allow Lukashenko to use the EAEU against Armenia, has not yet commented on the EAEU ultimatum. Pashinyan’s occasional references to Lukashenko are very interesting, especially in the context when Russia, not Belarus, is using measures against Armenia at the highest level. It is also obvious that the EAEU joint statement is the initiative of the Russian side, but when talking about the Russian leader, he mentions that he has friendly relations with the Russian president.

While Russia exerts significant pressure on the authorities of Armenia, the Western mass media and various sources are developing the topic of the agenda of the hybrid war waged by Russia against Armenia, writing about Russian spies, interference from the Russian Federation, etc. The Reuters news agency also recently prepared a material about Moscow trying to influence the outcome of the Armenian elections.  According to the agency, several of their sources have informed that the Kremlin is trying to prevent Nikol Pashinyan’s victory in the elections at any cost.

The interest shown by foreign forces in the Armenian electoral processes has gone beyond the scope of traditional manifestations. Major geopolitical actors today use clear institutional tools to advance their policies and interests. Moscow uses direct economic and material levers, from incentives to revise the price of energy carriers to the ban on Armenian products. Political-diplomatic “soft power” is used in the opposite pole.

Today, support for the current government has a European and American level, including US President Donald Trump’s recent direct political support for Nikol Pashinyan. The references of the Western media platforms also fill this background, forming an image of foreign patronage.

However, the most remarkable thing is what political analysts in Russia also draw attention to, why with such public ultimatums and steps Russia is enriching the pre-election theses and agenda of the West itself and Nikol Pashinyan. Any drastic action by the Kremlin in the hands of the current government and especially Pashinyan, considering his style, turns into an argument that a hybrid war is being waged against Armenia. A situation is created where Moscow legitimizes Yerevan’s anti-Russian rhetoric and justifies the policy of going to the Western Pole.

This raises a logical question: why does the Russian side go to pressure right now and on such a scale, which sometimes gives the opposite result? Russian analysts remind Russia’s gas terror in the case of other countries as well and claim that having the experience of a number of countries, Russia should have followed a different path in the case of Armenia.

Direct external shocks do not always push the public to criticize the government, but usually mobilize the public, forcing them to unite around their own government for the sake of sovereignty. Such open and rude steps often create the opposite effect, giving Pashinyan an opportunity to strengthen the speech of the need to protect sovereignty in the elections.

Moreover, it is not excluded that Washington and Moscow, with their opposing tools, will get the same geopolitical result regarding Pashinyan.

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